Posted on 12/13/2008 5:05:04 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Intermission
BY TIM W. WOOD
Major stock averages have retested their 2002 lows, oil hits the 40 dollar mark and the dollar weakens. Does this now mean that it’s over? Has the bear market run its course? Is a new bull market on the horizon? Will oil go back to 140? Will the new administration fix everything? Will 2009 bring in more of the glory days?
/snip
Anyway, I don’t think the bear market is over or that a new bull market has begun and I can virtually assure you that the new administration cannot “fix” the mess we are in. The year 2009 will not be a return of the glory days and oil is not going back to 140 a barrel at this time. This is a massive/global bear market that has been brought on by credit and excesses of the past. The bottom line is, we are now dealing with K-wave winter and I want to again remind you of the signs that occur in this season.
“Global Stock Markets Enter Extended Bear Markets”
Given the performance of the Chinese, US, and other stock averages around the world there should be little doubt about this one.
“Trends During Winter: Stocks Down, Bonds Up, Commodities Down”
I would say that this is occurring.
“Interest Rates Spike In Early Winter Then Decline Throughout”
In June 2004 the Discount rate was at 2.00%. By June 2006 it was at 6.25% and since August 2007 the Fed has been forced to cut the Discount rate back to 2.25%. So, this too seems to fit.
“Economic Growth Slow or Negative During Much of Winter”
I doubt that many will argue that growth is now slow and in many cases negative.
“Commercial and Residential Real Estate Prices Fall”
This obviously began back in 2006 and is still in a major slump.
“Bankruptcies Accelerate and High Debt Eliminated by Bankruptcy”
This has obviously begun and is no doubt related to the housing and credit bubbles.
“Social Upheaval and Society Becomes Negative”
We are only just beginning to see this.
“Banking System Shaken and New One Introduced”
The banking system is now only beginning to be shaken. There should be much more to come.
“Free Market System Blamed and Socialist Solutions Offered”
This has not yet happened, but just wait.
“National Fascist Political Tendencies”
More to come.
"Debt Level Very Low After Defaults and Bankruptcy"
This has not happened.
“Trade Conflict Worsen”
This basically has not happened.
“View of the Future at a Low Ebb”
This has not happened as everyone seems to be looking for the bottom.
“New Work Ethics Develop Since Jobs are Scarce”
If I can assure you of one thing it is that this has not happened.
"Greed is Purged from the System"
I can absolutely assure you that this has not happened yet.
“Real Estate Prices Find Bottom”
This has not happened.
“There is a Clean Economic Slate to Build On”
Not happened yet.
“Investors are Very Conservative and Risk Averse”
Again, this has absolutely not occurred.
“Interest Rates and Prices Bottom”
Not happened.
“A New Economy Begins to Emerge”
Has not happened
“Stock Markets Reach Bottom and Begin New Bull Markets”
Again, we aren’t there yet and I view any relief rallies from these oversold levels merely as intermission.
Or gone home to protect their families.
You haven’t mentioned anything about the upcoming failures of Mexico and Canada. When their manufacturing/labor markets collapse, the Amero dollar will be rushed in by the O Saviour to resuscitate the financial markets.
I think that’s what he meant by “gone missing”.
Not by credit and excesses but by corruption in government and private sector, separately or in tandem.
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