Posted on 12/08/2008 8:33:04 AM PST by dbz77
Last week's comfortable re-election victory for Sen. Saxby Chambliss comes as an early Christmas gift to Republicans still smarting from the comprehensive drubbing they suffered in November. It also ends the Democrats' dream of exacting "revenge" on the man who defeated their beloved Max Cleland in 2002 by allegedly questioning his patriotism, or so the legend goes. The GOP win in Georgia should not be over-hyped, but it may provide a few insights about the national political landscape—as well as a small dose of good news for the Right.
First, Chambliss' 14-point margin of victory ended up being substantially higher than polls predicted. On November 4, Chambliss barely missed the 50 percent threshold that would have staved of a run-off, edging challenger Jim Martin by a paltry three points. Public opinion surveys leading up to the subsequent election indicated Chambliss had a sizeable lead, although only in the mid-to-high single digits. When the runoff votes came in on December 2, the incumbent surged to a solid 57 percent, and any lingering Republican anxiety over holding the seat gave way to sighs of relief. The blowout win puts to rest most fears of an unstoppable blue tide destined to overwhelm even the reddest of states. As Michael Barone's characteristically excellent turnout analysis indicates, the GOP did a commendable job of mobilizing its supporters for the must-win runoff.
Second, the win locked up a crucial 41st Senate seat for the minority party, thus securing the means to launch filibusters designed to block the most noxious leftist proposals being debated in the Democrat-controlled Congress. Unless the unserious Democrat candidate in Minnesota manages to litigate his way into office, Mitch McConnell will have 42 votes in his caucus with which to work. Granted, there's no guarantee that Senate Republicans will be able to forge the requisite united front to actually mount successful filibusters, depending on the issue at hand. The key is that a plausible filibuster threat now exists, which would not be the case in a 60-40 chamber.
Third, this race was an early test of Obama's post-election coattails potential, and provided an interesting glimpse at the national players who were both present and notably absent on the campaign trail. On the Democrat side, President-elect Obama mostly stayed away from the contest, save for recording a radio ad and some robocalls on Martin's behalf. He did, however, deploy some of his sharpest campaign operatives and organizers to Georgia to coordinate the runoff effort, yet even these elements of Team Obama couldn't precent the gap between the two candidates from widening 11 points in a matter of weeks. Without Obama himself on the ballot, the generic Democrat brand faltered.
As for the Republicans, Sarah Palin lent her star power to the Chambliss campaign, stumping repeatedly for his re-election bid. Shortly after retaining his seat, Chambliss told Fox News, "I can't overstate the impact [Palin] had down here…when she walks in a room, folks just explode." The question of Palin's future within the Republican party evokes passionate disagreements, even among self-identified conservatives, but her performance in Georgia must not be overlooked. Whether she can appeal to—and win over—the national electorate in the future is an open question, but there can be no question that she is an invaluable campaign weapon for drawing out the GOP base. Any turnout model that gives the GOP even a chance of victory requires high and enthusiastic turnout from traditional conservatives. Now that it's clear she's a willing team player, the RNC would be insane not to deploy Palin all over the country to campaign with, and raise funds for, its candidates—especially in red states.
Incidentally, it's a testament to Sarah Palin that she has been such a happy warrior for her party in light of how she was treated by some people on her own side. She may or may not be the party's best choice for national office in the future, but she certainly is an ebullient, gracious, conservative female leader who deserves better than the treatment she's received in recent months.
Despite this good news, it would be dangerous to view the Chambliss triumph as a sign that everything is peachy in Elephantland. The mere fact that Republicans have been reduced to crowing about a Senate win in ruby-red Georgia shows how dire this election cycle has been. Yes, the 14 point blowout proves that the Republicans aren't on life support everywhere, but avoiding life support in a traditionally strong region isn't exactly a condition to celebrate.
Also, just because Democrats floundered without Obama at the top of the ticket in a brutal year for their opposing party doesn't mean that Obama is necessarily a flash-in-the-pan phenomenon that will flame out quickly. Many Democrats operated on the assumption that Ronald Reagan was an effective communicator whose policies and ideas would die as soon as he left office. As Democrats chuckled at the "lightweight" former actor, Reagan advanced his worldview and pulled the electorate to the right.
Finally, the Georgia win does not in any way refute claims by some leading conservatives that the Republican Party could be walking a perilous line of becoming a regional party. Under some prognostications—as gloomy as they may be—Georgia should be the heart of a marginalized southern party with limited appeal to northeastern, western, and rust-belt voters. Additionally, Jim Martin was a poor candidate whose liberal record on taxes, guns, and abortion bordered on disqualifying any Georgia politician seeking statewide office.
It's going to be a tough road back for the GOP, and holding Chambliss' Senate seat is an encouraging start. Now the hard work begins.
It was only after the aftermath and the thought at giving the rats another win did the voters relent - that and the promise and support of the true 'one' - Sarah, did we amass and take back the reins of conservative control in Georgia.
Good comment. Coupled with the unexpected defeat of William Jefferson for what was supposed to be an automatic re-election in New Orleans over the weekend, we may have hope of keeping this country for the next four years. But it won’t be easy.
I think it came down to the question of
GEORGIA VOTERS, Do you guys want the dems to have 60 in the senate ?
The answer from Georgia was, No and Hell No.
I respectfully disagree. I think the difference is that there was not the huge voter turnout that was present in the Presidential election. No ACORN, no historic black vote, no Democrat win. Any Republican would have won in Georgia.
Applies to both parties. Balanced each other out
“No ACORN, no historic black vote, no Democrat win”
ACORN didn't magically dissapear. The fraudulent ACORN registrations were as much alive last week, as they were on Nov 4th
“Any Republican would have won in Georgia.”
Not necessarily. Any Republican could have lost too. Heck, McClain barely won in his own home state of Arizona in the presidential elections.
The Nov. vote was definitly a “Punish Saxby” vote. You can tell by the numbers that a lot of people voted McCain for Pres and Martin for Senate.
Too many people in GA still think “our democrats” are different from national democrats, that’s why they felt comfortable voting for Martin in the main election.
Martin was exposed in the runoff. Martin had enough sense to keep Obama as far away as possible, but the DNC (bless their hear) ran a lot of ads just before the election saying that GA needed to send Martin to the senate to help Obama. They tied Obama around Martin’s neck.
The runoff was as much an anti-Obama vote as anything. The Republican base was fired up to vote against Obama, the Demos didn’t get fired up to help Obama.
I didn’t cast a pro-Chambliss vote, I cast an anti-Obama vote. Chambliss skated through this election as the lesser of two evils, but if he doesn’t change his tune he will be in trouble six years from now.
This is exactly the problem with the Republican party. They have become the lesser of two evils. You don’t win elections (much less get things done) that way.
The GOP win in Georgia should not be over-hyped
ROTFLMAO. Really???? We need some good news even though it is a RINO from a deep red state.
That didn't stop him from doing surprisingly well in the first round elections on Nov 4th. Clearly, voters on Georgia didn't think he was as poor a candidate as the author seems to think
That pretty much sums it up.
I respectfully disagree. I think the difference is that there was not the huge voter turnout that was present in the Presidential election. No ACORN, no historic black vote, no Democrat win. Any Republican would have won in Georgia.
Saxby's problems all go back to his support of McCain/Kennedy immigartion bill. He didn't just support it, worked hard as an advocate to get the bill passed.
Had the Democrats run a better candidate, they easily could have won this election without the runoff. Georgians still believe "our democrats" are different from the national democrats. Remember, it isn't that long ago that Zell Miller was a democratic senator from GA. Had the Dems run someone more moderate than Martin Chambliss would have lost.
Once again, I am going to respectfully disagree. High voter turnout favors Democrats. We Republicans are much more reliable voters. As a life long Republican I have prayed for rain every election. And I realize that ACORN did not disappear but many of their registered voters did not materialize because if what I believe to be true, that ACORN is responsible for many illegally submitted absentee ballets, I think their impact was lessened because many of their useful idiot foot soldiers were spent from the Presidential election. I did not mean absolutely without exception any Republican would have won; I meant it is reasonable to assume just about any Republican would have won since the people who put Obama in office have all returned to their home states and countries and are busy celebrating their victory. My point is that Georgia is a reliably conservative state. Without the hype, the booze and cig rewards, the motor voter cheating, Republicans tend to win in Georgia.
Don't forget that he voted for the $700b bailout, too.
To tell you the truth, I could have give a crap if he lost and I think he was taught a lesson.
Same here. I voted for him in the general, but refused to vote in the runoff for exactly that reason.
the promise and support of the true 'one' - Sarah, did we amass and take back the reins of conservative control in Georgia.
See my tagline.
The MSM and the leftist pundit class quote from the same playbook. Don’t give Sarah Palin any credit and thus acrosss-the-board credibility. One who is deemed to be a lightweight, an idiot, a buffoon and cannot ever be given credit for being a kingmaker. The former and the latter do not jibe. Thus the turkey story, the shopping stories, Barbara Walters calling Sarah uninformed and slamming her in her ‘fascinating’ special. But truth will out. Bottom line Chambliss was projected to win by 4-5 points a day or two before the vote-a win for Chambliss, but a narrow won. I have never denied this and have never said Chambliss had any chance of losing the run-off. So call this a signal to the base of Sarah’s potential to have a huge impact any election. To go from 5% to 15% in 1 or 2 days when the only intervening event on the GOP side was the one-day barnstorming appearance of Sarah Palin is astonishing. Sure Sarah may not account for all of that 10% but to credit her with at least 1/2 of that, in her ability to rally and mobilize the base, is I don’t think is out of line. To change a political race by 5+% with an one-day appearance on the stump is the mark of a closer, a winner and a game changer. Sarah is on the rise, and that has the MSM and the Dems frightened for 2012.
I like Palin, but you are giving her too much credit here.
I live in GA, and IMHO, Palin’s impact on this race was minimal. Chambliss’ polling lead the day before the elction was based upon similar voting turnout as the main election. We know that didn’t happen. The factors that helped Chambliss were:
1. Martin allowing himself to be tied to Obama.
2. A Democratic base that was not enthused about comming out to vote for Martin.
3. A Republican base that was fired up to prevent the Dems from getting a 60 seat majority and handing total power to the Dems/Obama.
4. A host of Republicans (including Palin) comming into the state to Support Chambliss. IMHO (again), Huckabee’s visit to the state probably did as much or more to help Chambliss as anyone else (because it was coordinated with a major GA talk show, Neil Boortz on WSB, and the Fair Tax coalition, which enjoys more support in GA than any other state by a pretty large margin.)
I like Palin, but there is no way you can attribute the entire bump to here.
The lesson is pretty basic. It is that states that are reliably red (or blue) will remain so, for the next few cycles at least, absent overriding issues in a particular campaign.
States that are not reliably one or the other could still be swing states are the states that matter most.
Unfortunately, Obama won every single one of those, which is why he had a convincing electoral win.
Everyone on this post is wrong or almost wrong except Zevon.
Saxby’s win was due to turnout, or lack thereof. 1.3 million FEWER voters turned out for the runoff. Obama didn’t just have coattails, his presence on the ticket dragged out more than just marginal voters. Nationwide.
The turnout for the runoff is more typical that of an off-year election.
It is actually good news and says that the GOP will probably win back the House.
Yay! I love it when I am recognized for my old lady strength. I really have been around the political block a time or two.
It is actually good news and says that the GOP will probably win back the House.
I completely agree with this prediction.
BTW Rush is currently talking about this election on his show.
2. A Democratic base that was not enthused about comming out to vote for Martin.Which was entirely predictable to anyone with at least one eye, one ear, and one brain.
Zevon, we live in paradise in California also, in North SD county. Where is your paradise?
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