Undecided voters in 2004: What % of the vote and how did they break?

[CatOwner]

I am trying to determine how many voters were undecided going into the last week of the 2004 presidential election. Of these undecided voters, what percent of them broke for Bush?

[Perdogg]

I think they broke half and half.

[Perdogg]

I pretty sure in 2000, 1992 they broke for Gore and Clinton

in 1976 and 1980 the broke for Ford and Reagan, except there weren’t enough for Ford.

[CatOwner]

Really? I thought a majority went for Bush, so this is news to me.

[Perdogg]

it depends on what you define as the last week. By the time the election got here there were only about 3 to 4% undecided.

[CatOwner]

I was thinking about the same time as now from the election (11 days). Most reputable polls seem to have a lot of undecided voters (7-10%). I don’t recall there being as many in the 2004 election at this point.

[Perdogg]

No, in fact the day after the election Rush mocked the media for assuming all undecideds would go for Kerry.

[CatOwner]

Well, I was hoping that the undecided voters would break better than 50/50 for McCain in this election. Again, I don’t think there is an accurate read on this election right now. Too many biased polls, some people subject to the Bradley Effect, scattered reports of early voting surges, and the long string of voter fraud reports.

[Perdogg]

to cheer you up, they broke Ford’s way in 1976. Unfortunately, had the election gone an extra week, Ford would have won.

[KeatsforFirstDog]

Yup - I think a lot for Gore - because of the DWI/Bush October surpise

not sure about 2004...

[KeatsforFirstDog]

oops...I may have been wrong...

here are the nationwide exit polls from 2000:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.epolls.html

Now, I know some of the indvl state results for exit polls were way off, but based on the percentages of males vs females overall, the national one may have been better??

[KeatsforFirstDog]

HEre is the 2004 exit national poll data...scroll down most of the way and it shows how it broke when they decided:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

Kerry had a slight advantage from those that decided in the last 3 days, but Bush had a tiny advantage in the last week.

This shows 9% decided in the last week (when last week and 3 days out and day of voting all combined)...

[KeatsforFirstDog]

Ok - roughly 121,480,019 voted for Bush, Kerry and Nader combined.

If 9% were undecided until the last week, that’s roughly 10,933,202 folks that made up their mind the last week...

[KeatsforFirstDog]

Messed up...the 9% was in the last 3-4 days. So roughly 10,933,202 folks that made up their mind in those last 3-4 days.

Another 2% made up their mind in the week before the election, so that’s 11% total (when added to the 9% above) of the 121,480,019, which means 13,362,803 made up their mind the last week

[mouse1]

Actually, I think the undecided are decided and just dont want to say who they are voting for. I work the phones for McCain and spoke with an elderly woman yesterday who sounded absolutely terrified to divulge who she was voting for. Probably all that in “your face” talk. Also, the pumas are telling the pollsters they are voting bho. Who knows what the numbers really are.

[CatOwner]

Also, the pumas are telling the pollsters they are voting bho.

I sure hope the PUMAs aren't deceiving McCain and are actually going to vote in droves for Obama.

[mware]

I kind of wish PUMA would be truthful to the pollsters and tell them they are voting for Mc.

You just know the media is going to be saying that Obama was cheated if the early exit #'s do not match the actual votes.

[CatOwner]

The other questions I have is how many of the Hillary supporters are really in on this? And how many PUMAs plan to jump the party to vote for McCain or at least not vote at all? They are, after all, mostly DEMs. So far, most polls show McCain losing to women by quite a bit.

[mware]

I can only give you a grassroots impression from my hometown.

I have talked to life long democrats, who HATE President Bush.

They are not voting for Barak and have told me they will be voting for McCain.

[CatOwner]

I have talked to life long democrats, who HATE President Bush.

They are not voting for Barak and have told me they will be voting for McCain.

I envy your hometown. Our area in California (Silicon Valley - Santa Clara Co.) went 35% for Bush in 2000 and 2004. What was once a solidly moderate area of the state now only trails the counties of San Francisco, Marin, Santa Cruz, and Alameda (Berkeley, Oakland) for leftists.