Which do you think it will be from what you know at this time, recession or mild depression?
Frankly, I am in the mild depression camp because I think the scale of the combined NASDAQ/housing bubble was too large and the scale of deflation is more than the world has to backstop it with.
If you think we are due for a shorter, milder recession, I would be interested in knowing your reasoning why. Not that your opinion is not at least as good as mine.
Care to elaborate, please?
Too many Americans didn’t believe it could happen, lose your home, your retirement, and now you don’t have a job! All because you tried to live like the Jones’. Mom and the kids all have a serious case of spending disease.
That probably fits a easy 5 to 15% of the US population. People hate to cut spending. Just the idea of turning off the cable for the TV is a major heart wrenching decision. Sure it’ll save them $1,200 a year but everybody else has cable and I want it too!
We still want to go out for dinner at least once a week at $40 to $80 a person. Buying coffee for $2.00 a cup and drinking $8 a gallon bottled water have become a way of life. Another $3,000 bucks a year pissed down the drain so they can be cool, like everybody else. Hummph!
I had lunch with a local banker the other day and guess who is sliding backwards on their credit card and loan payments? Middle and upper middle income homeowners. Their personal savings account deposits hit bottom a month ago. Now the bank is seeing withdrawls and account transfers weekly. All because they refuse to change their lifestyle!
I am expecting that with mismanagement of the federal, state, local and personal budgets, it will bring on an extended solid recession.