Over the next decade, I do not think that there is a risk of Zimbabwe inflation, because our national debt is still only something like half of our GDP, so there is no risk that we will be unable to pay the interest on Treasuries.
Only when the debt is multiples of the GDP does the risk of default or hyperinflation become serious.
70s inflation is a 2 on my scale. Not even 20% inflation.
I’ve long felt this would be worse than ‘70s inflation.
The point of this exercise was to see if I could find any of the Freepers I trust who are level-headed, knowledgeable and were ahead of the curve on this credit crises that thinks there is any remote chance of having a true hyperinflation occur as the result of any amount of printing by the collective world governments, primarily US.
That was the point. Schiff knows his Sch_tt and I was thrown by his reference to Zimbabwe in the Glenn Beck video. He also made a reference to 20%-30% inflation. So maybe Zimbabwe is code to him for 30% inflation, which would STILL BE DAMN BAD, make gold golden to own, and make you want to dump all your dollars for real assets like commodities or real estate.
So the point was less about coming bad inflation, which is coming, but could the Bernanke chopper fleet really lead to a true Zimbabwe hyperinflation.
The answer looks to be no. Thank you. And the reference to debt as a percentage of GDP is compelling, as this was a point JasonC was constantly trying to make.
So are you still a very pessimistic bear these days, or are you growing vealish in the least.
I still feel we are heading toward a mild depression, but I am constantly updating my view as I get better intelligence.
FWIW, today is a very weird day. After last week’s collapse in equities that exceeded the 1929 collapse, and after yesterday’s bear market rally, the mood in the nation seems to be “calamity averted”.
I think this slid into mild depression will be long and relentless as unstoppable deleveraging continues. The sudden complacency in the nation, as if we had a close call and are now in the clear, is mind-boggling.
Structurally, nothing in banking has changed. The capital infusion announced today is a good start, but a drop in the proverbial bucked of write downs, liquidity shortages, reduced economic activity and those pesky $62 Trillions of derivatives.
What has changed?
Maybe I should stop saying “mild depression” and start using the term “very severe recession”. The term depression implies EOTWAWKI, which is not what I see on the horizon. Then again, with Obama been Lying in the White House, it well could become that.