When (notice I did not say "if") that happens, there will no longer be any particular talk about a cooling trend. The only problem I see now is that as the next solar cycle revs up and the sunspot numbers increase -- as they will very likely do over the next 5-6 years -- and then there is a new global temperature record in that period, climate change skeptics will blame it on the Sun. Timing is everything.
Thank you!
(More later, the dentist calls....)
For the models to be right, the temperatures need to rise very fast (not just barely break records) in the years ahead.
The models are predicting a rise of 2.0C per century (while we have only seen 0.7C over 1.3 centuries so far.) The temperature increase is less than half of the trend predicted by the models.
Hansen’s 1988 predictions (Scenario B) is now off by 0.5C (or 65%).
It is not barely breaking records once in awhile that determines whether global warming is a significant problem, temps must increase by the projected 3.0C per doubling of GHGs to have that significant effect. So far, we are only halfway to the trend that is required to produce the 3.0C per doubling impact.
If the models are off by a factor of two, then warming will hardly be a problem at all - the most temps will ever increase is 1.5C to 2.0C over centuries which is not likely to be a big problem. I hope you see my point.