For the models to be right, the temperatures need to rise very fast (not just barely break records) in the years ahead.
The models are predicting a rise of 2.0C per century (while we have only seen 0.7C over 1.3 centuries so far.) The temperature increase is less than half of the trend predicted by the models.
Hansen’s 1988 predictions (Scenario B) is now off by 0.5C (or 65%).
It is not barely breaking records once in awhile that determines whether global warming is a significant problem, temps must increase by the projected 3.0C per doubling of GHGs to have that significant effect. So far, we are only halfway to the trend that is required to produce the 3.0C per doubling impact.
If the models are off by a factor of two, then warming will hardly be a problem at all - the most temps will ever increase is 1.5C to 2.0C over centuries which is not likely to be a big problem. I hope you see my point.
Benchmarking on 2005, the past 25 years saw an approximate increase of 0.4 C over that interval. If warming continued at that rate, it would be a 1.6 C rise over century. And as atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase, the models predict an acceleration of warming, so I fail to see why 2.0 C over the course of the 21st century is outlandish. Wish I could be here in 2100 to see where it actually is; but if the predictions of this and other environmental issues are borne out, I don't think the world in 2100 looks particularly appealing. Sad news for my grandchildren.
If the models are off by a factor of two, then warming will hardly be a problem at all - the most temps will ever increase is 1.5C to 2.0C over centuries which is not likely to be a big problem. I hope you see my point.
You and Patrick Michaels enjoy a high level of agreement. For a long time, 2.0 C increase was considered a threshold level; significant effects are predicted to kick in with increases not much more than that. If the world managed to keep the warming at 2.0 C, that would be a reasonable outcome. Considering how successfully the world appears to be at managing any issue of international consequence, I'm not overly optimistic.