| Facts of the 1938 Hurricane (Francis, 1998) |
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12 new inlets were created by the tremendous storm surge. Moriches Inlet, created by a winter storm in 1931, was widened substantially and Shinnecock Inlet was born. The creation of this inlet is affecting coastal Long Island still today. All other inlets were filled in with the wreckage of the storm, especially the automobiles, as well as with tons of sand brought in by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and the Works Progress Administration (WPA).
According to the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project:
90% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in the next 50 years.
A storm surge prediction program used by forecasters called SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) has predicted that in a category 4 hurricane, John F. Kennedy International Airport would be under 20 feet of water and sea water would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and into the city's subways throughout lower Manhattan. The report did not estimate casualties, but did state that storms "that would present low to moderate hazards in other regions of the country could result in heavy loss of life" in the New York City area (Time, 1998).
By comparison to today, Long Island was sparsely populated back in the 1930's. Where once there were potato farms, there now stand multi-million dollar homes. For a comprehensive study on the impact of a CAT3 hurricane on LI, go here.