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TS Gustav & TS Hanna
NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 08/28/2008 8:25:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The 2008 peak of hurricane season is ramping up with Gustav and Hanna. The two storms pose threats to the U.S. At least 22 deaths in Hispanola are attributed to Gustav to date, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic.

Gustav
Hanna


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Buoy Data: Western Caribbean
                  FL and East GOM
                  Western GOM
East Caribbean
West Atlantic
Florida

Forecast Models

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Breaking News; Front Page News; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2008dncconvention; 2008rncconvention; gustav; hannah; hurricane; predictions; tropical
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To: NautiNurse

I am right outside of Ft. Polk. I was here for Rita and absolutely dread Gustav hitting here. After Rita, all the gas stations were out of gas, the only store in town was closed (WalMart) so people had to rely on the Red Cross for food and basic supplies. I remember the National Guard patrolling the streets (with their weapons very visible)when food and ice were being given out... it was like a third world country. I don’t know why my husband complains about MREs, I actually liked a few of them! He called me from Iraq this morning and wants me and the baby to leave but I have heard stories of people that tried to get out last time, and I don’t want to get stuck in that mess. We’ll just ride it out if it hits and pray in the meantime that we don’t get hit. I wouldn’t be so scared if he were here, I can’t imagine going through all of that again by myself.


301 posted on 08/29/2008 3:35:07 PM PDT by dougherty (I saw the angel in the marble and carved until I set him free. - Michelangelo)
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To: dougherty
You need to do what is SAFE! Don't give your husband something else to worry about!

Mother (LOL)

302 posted on 08/29/2008 3:39:27 PM PDT by lonestar
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To: lonestar

I have family in Houston, but I am afraid of going there and getting hit there by Gustav. That’s what is driving me crazy, the unpredictability of these storms! We are about 50 mies from Lake Charles. If I were in LC, I would definitely be making plans to leave! A few months after Rita we went down to Cameron Parish and saw some of the storm damage. It was unbelievable! No houses, only slabs, some with FEMA trailers next to them. Cars, refrigerators, mobile homes lying out in the middle of nowhere. When my husband gets back and retires from the Army, we are moving to Arizona!


303 posted on 08/29/2008 3:48:55 PM PDT by dougherty (I saw the angel in the marble and carved until I set him free. - Michelangelo)
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To: dougherty
I'm about 50 miles west of you in Jasper.

If you stay in Leesville, be sure you go to a shelter for the duration of the storm.

304 posted on 08/29/2008 4:03:11 PM PDT by lonestar
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To: blam

My guess as of now is if Gustav makes it through the channell without going over Cuba it will be a Texas landfall.All the models pretty much show a straight shot into the gulf coast once it enters the gulf, so, if it does not curve north in the next 12 hours or so NO and most of La should be in the clear.


305 posted on 08/29/2008 4:08:43 PM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: blam

blam wrote:
“Ok gustav...get that zip on!”


I hope it gets real zippy, lol.


Step on the gas, Gus!


306 posted on 08/29/2008 4:14:20 PM PDT by texasredtop
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To: nwctwx

Gustav’s pressure is now rapidly dropping, at least for the short term. This could be the beginnning of it’s transition into a major hurricane.


307 posted on 08/29/2008 4:18:46 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: dougherty
Please make sure you have a full tank of gas in your vehicle tonight (before a run on gasoline), then get a bug-out bag ready with supplies to last 3 days to a week. Make sure you have plenty of diapers, food, etc. for your baby.

If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone, don't even consider riding out the storm with your baby.

308 posted on 08/29/2008 4:19:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Sarah Barracuda!)
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To: DvdMom

> Just in case anyone from the New Orleans / and the surrounding area needs to find hotels I heard that many Hotels in Jackson, Mississippi area are already booked. We have friends who live in LA and they had to book hotel rooms in Memphis, TN. <

Any updates on the hotel situation at points north?

Or about the traffic flows on I-55N, I-65N, I-49N, etc.?


309 posted on 08/29/2008 4:25:36 PM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: Cailleach

check out the motel 6’s. I had a canine guest check in with my party a few week ago.


310 posted on 08/29/2008 4:29:18 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: nwctwx; NautiNurse; BurbankKarl; All
posted at Accuweather:

By Saturday, Gustav is expected to reach Category 3 strength as it pounds the Cayman Islands with torrential rain and destructive winds. The storm has the potential to become a dangerous Category 4 hurricane, with winds over 130 mph, as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico.

The storm poses a serious threat to lives and property along the Gulf Coast, with landfall forecast late Monday or early on Tuesday. The threat will extend well inland from the immediate coast.

The highest risk for a direct landfall from Gustav lies from Houston, Texas, to Mobile, Ala.; however, all interests along the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to south Texas should monitor the progress of Gustav.

The South Regional News story reports conditions will begin to deteriorate along the central Gulf Coast on Monday.

Heavy rain, strong winds and pounding surf could batter the Gulf Coast for a prolonged period of time if a strong area of high pressure to the north slows Gustav's forward speed around the time of landfall.



Officials in Louisiana and Mississippi have begun preparations for a contra-flow on interstate highways, turning the highways into one-way highways to ease the flow of traffic along the Gulf Coast.

The Associated Press reported that Union Pacific, the nation's largest railroad, received word on Thursday that New Orleans may close its floodgates along Lake Pontchartrain on Saturday, preventing rail traffic from moving in or out of New Orleans.

Union Pacific is routing its rail traffic through Memphis, Tenn., and St. Louis, Mo., while Norfolk Southern Corporation has stopped all train traffic south of Hattiesburg, Miss.

With the current forecast calling for Gustav to strike the Louisiana coast west of New Orleans late on Monday, New Orleans will likely be pounded by the storm. Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski says whether the eye of Gustav goes east or west of the city, the canals and levees will be put to the test.

It will be the first for New Orleans' Hurricane Protection System since Hurricane Katrina made landfall to the east of the city on the morning of August 29, 2005. The wind drove the waters of Lake Pontchartrain toward the city, overwhelming the levee and canals.

A memorial service will take place today at 9:38 a.m. CDT, the time of the first levee breach.

311 posted on 08/29/2008 4:39:00 PM PDT by lainie (Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.)
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To: nwctwx
I'm not exactly liking this...

000
URNT12 KNHC 292322 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 29/23:05:10Z
B. 19 deg 08 min N
  079 deg 54 min W
C. NA mb 2884 m
D. 51 kt
E. 242 deg 23 nm
F. 329 deg 058 kt
G. 238 deg 031 nm
H. 975 mb
I. NA C/ 3048 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C20
N. 12345/
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 1007A GUSTAV1      OB 10 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 76 KT NE QUAD 23:12:00 Z
SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY
RAGGED EYEWALL PRESENTATION

Changes between 4:51 pm EDT and 7:05 pm EDT -

- Pressure drop of 2 mb to 975 mb.
- New maximum flight-level wind of 76 knots (previous was 71 knots found at 3:02 pm EDT).
- Eyewall now open to the northeast and down to 20 nm wide (had been closed, if ragged and 25 nm wide).
- Motion over the previous 2:14 - west-northwest (287 degrees) at 7.1 mph (west-northwest track continues, but it's slowing down).

312 posted on 08/29/2008 4:40:44 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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The right was Katrina's path in 2005. What are the differences NO should expect in water/damage/flooding, etc. with the path of Gustav going further left?

313 posted on 08/29/2008 4:42:36 PM PDT by lainie (Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.)
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To: steveegg

Conditions are ideal and it’s sitting on the warmest water in the ocean... this is near where Wilma started going nuts. I think it will easily top NHC short term estimates from today.


314 posted on 08/29/2008 4:45:32 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: lainie

moved to chat yet?


315 posted on 08/29/2008 4:46:55 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: steveegg

Looks like a hot tower on the NE side of eyewall just shot up in the lates frame.


316 posted on 08/29/2008 4:50:28 PM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: nwctwx
The only encouraging sign is the partially-open eyewall.

Don't remind me about Wilma; I remember that bomb-up all too well.

317 posted on 08/29/2008 4:53:53 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: BurbankKarl

heh... I think they’re all posted here :)


318 posted on 08/29/2008 4:54:01 PM PDT by lainie (Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.)
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To: NautiNurse

Very good advice. I think I’ll run over to Walmart and fill up all vehicles now and fill up the gas cans too so I can top off in a few days IF needed. No sense waiting until there is no gas or it’s gone up 50 cents.


319 posted on 08/29/2008 4:54:20 PM PDT by texasredtop
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To: steveegg
The only encouraging sign is the partially-open eyewall.

The side of the eyewall that was open began to be filled by explosive hot towers of convection just after recon was in the eye; tends to be a sign of impending rapid intensification.

320 posted on 08/29/2008 4:55:06 PM PDT by Strategerist
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