Tropical Depression 7

NOAA/NHC ^ | 08/25/2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the eastern Caribbean.

Public Advisories

Forecast Discussion

Buoy Data:
East Caribbean Buoys
West Caribbean Buoys
Florida Buoys

Visible Satellite Image

IR Sat Image Loop

Water Vapor Image Loop

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NonValueAdded]

I was sickened last night listening to James Carville and the CNN libs as they drooled at the possibility a killer hurricane might strike NOLA during the RNC Convention this year.

NVA replied:

I say "bring it on" The difference this year is Jindal. You won't see the same inaction and deer in the headlights freezeup of the governor this time around.

I rest my case: [Louisiana Governor] Jindal outlines tentative plan for Gustav evacuation. LA now has adult supervision.

[NautiNurse]

IIRC, it was shortly after Hillary! gave her speech. The CNN talking heads were sitting in a semi-circle. Disgusting.

[Constitutionalist Conservative]

Distorted computer voice:
“Shall we play a gamee.”
David Lightman
“Major Hurricane Strike”
Distorted computer voice:
“Target?”
David Lightman
“Enitre GOM Coast.”

Wouldn't you prefer a nice game of chess?

[Rightly Biased]

thanks for the update NN

[rdl6989]

Thanks for the ping. Prayers up for Louisiana.

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 27, 2008

...Gustav still bringing heavy rains and squalls to portions of
Haiti...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti from the Dominican
Republic-Haiti border westward to Le Mole St Nicholas. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the tropical storm watch for the north
coast of Haiti east of Le Mole St Nicholas is discontinued.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for
Jamaica.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba for the provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Granma.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las
Tunas and Holguin and all of the Cayman Islands.

Interests in central and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of Gustav.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was
located near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 74.0 west or about 110
miles...180 km...west of Port au Prince Haiti and about 125 miles...
200 km...southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Gustav is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph...7 km/hr. A
west-northwest to west track is forecast during the next day or two
with a gradual increase in forward speed. On the forecast
track...Gustav should pass between Jamaica and the southeastern
coast of Cuba on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast once Gustav moves away from
Haiti...and the storm could regain hurricane strength within the
next day or two.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.

Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
12 inches over Hispaniola...eastern Cuba...Jamaica...and the Cayman
Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches
possible. These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in
areas of onshore winds in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...18.8 N...74.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...997 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[NautiNurse]

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Number 10

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 27, 2008

Gustav has been slow to depart the southwest peninsula of Haiti.
However recent high-resolution visible satellite images and radar
observations from gran Piedra Cuba suggest that the tropical
cyclone is gradually becoming better organized. The last aerial
reconnaissance observations in the storm did not actually support
an intensity of 50 kt...but based on the trend seen in the
satellite presentation we assume that Gustav is probably very near
that intensity by now. Cirrus motions indicate some modest
northerly shear over the system but otherwise the environment seems
to be favorable for strengthening...once Gustav pulls away from
Haiti. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one through day 3. Global models show some increase in
southwesterly shear at days 4 and 5... so we show little change in
strength in the latter part of the forecast period.
Notwithstanding...there is very little...if any...skill in
intensity predictions at these extended ranges. Indeed...if one
looks at the latest wind speed probability product included in this
package...it can be seen that there is nearly an equal chance that
Gustav will be a category 1...category 2...or category 3 hurricane
at the end of the forecast period.

The center has been wobbling as it interacted with the mountainous
landmass of southwestern Haiti. However a slow west-northwestward
motion...290/4...appears to have resumed this morning. A 500 mb
high centered near Florida with an associated ridge extending
eastward and westward is expected to drive the storm toward the
west or west-northwest over the next couple of days. Beginning
around day 3...the global models show some weakening of the the
ridge over the east-central Gulf of Mexico. This should cause
Gustav to gradually turn toward the northwest in 4 to 5 days. The
official forecast is very similar to the previous NHC track through
72 hours and is shifted a little to the right by day 5. One should
not read much into such shifts of the forecast track since the
typical error of a 5-day prediction is over 300 miles.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 27/1500z 18.8n 74.0w 50 kt
12hr VT 28/0000z 19.0n 74.8w 55 kt
24hr VT 28/1200z 19.2n 76.0w 60 kt
36hr VT 29/0000z 19.3n 77.5w 70 kt
48hr VT 29/1200z 19.9n 79.4w 80 kt
72hr VT 30/1200z 21.5n 83.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 31/1200z 24.5n 86.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 01/1200z 28.5n 88.5w 100 kt

$$
forecaster Pasch/Rhome

[VirginiaMom]

Wow, I sure don’t like where that thing is on Monday.

VirginiaMom

[dirtboy]

Track keeps shifting rightwards. Hopefully it will keep shifting and run Gustav over Cuba for a fair distance.

[VirginiaMom]

I hope so. Wear that storm out. My son just moved to New Orleans, so this worries me.

VirginiaMom

[txhurl]

Keeps inching closer and closer to you, NN.....

[nwctwx]

Shifts right are mainly due to the fact that it hasn’t moved west very much in the last 24 hours. Assuming this doesn’t continue, we shouldn’t see the tracks go too much further right. That said, TX appears less of a likelihood at this point. Still would think upper TX to FL panhandle needs to watch.

[dirtboy]

I’m primarily hoping it shifts slightly more northward than expected over the next 24 hours and gets tied up with at least part of its circulation over the mountains of SE Cuba for a bit. That would pull the subsequent track closer to the coast of Cuba for a couple of days.

[NautiNurse]

Keeps inching closer and closer to you, NN.....

Bite your keyboard!

[rodguy911]

I follow the Navy forecasts as well.
Over the years no one can touch their forecast record. They are usually right on.

[rodguy911]

Do prices still go up if we start drawing from the strategic reserve which is what it was designed for?

[LSUfan]

The Navy is diverging substantially from the NHC for the 5 day track...

[rodguy911]

Quite a difference between the two.

[RDTF]

oh boy