Posted on 08/25/2008 8:27:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the eastern Caribbean.
Buoy Data:
East Caribbean Buoys
West Caribbean Buoys
Florida Buoys
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
That is exactly the scene I thoght of.LOL
I got a peek at the Navy’s stuff and they are “suggesting” NO instead of Pensacola or elsewhere.
Navy eliminating TX?
(i hope)
IMHO : The dems are tryin’ to drive this country into the DIRT!!!
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2008
...Gustav weakens to a tropical storm...however...heavy rains and
squalls are still lashing much of Haiti...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Haiti from the Dominican
Republic-Haiti border westward to Le Mole St Nicholas.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba for the provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Granma.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Haiti from Le Mole St
Nicholas to the northern Haiti/Dominican Republic border.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las
Tunas and Holguin. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for Jamaica
and all of the Cayman Islands.
Interests in central and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of Gustav.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was
locatednear latitude 18.6 north...longitude 73.6 west or about 85
miles...135 km...west of Port au Prince Haiti and about 150
miles...245 km...southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Gustav is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A
turn toward the west is expected on Wednesday...with a return to
general west-northwestward motion forecast to occur on Thursday.
On the forecast track...Gustav should pass between Jamaica and the
southeastern coast of Cuba on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Gustav is moving back over water and is expected to regain
hurricane strength on Wednesday once it clears the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti. More significant strengthening is forecast on
Thursday and Gustav could become a category 2 hurricane when it
passes between Cuba and Jamaica.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
12 inches over Hispaniola...eastern Cuba...Jamaica...and the Cayman
Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches
possible. These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in
areas of onshore winds in the Hurricane Warning area.
Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...18.6 N...73.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70
mph. Minimum central pressure...994 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart/Franklin
Hurricane Gustav Discussion Number 7
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2008
Air Force hurricane hunter reports and visible satellite images...on
which the eye of the hurricane became evident...indicate that the
center of Gustav made landfall around 1730 UTC. A minimum pressure
of 992 mb was reported by the aircraft just as the center moved
inland...however a dropsonde released just east of the eye had a
surface pressure of 997 mb with southerly winds of 64 kt. So the
central pressure may have been somewhat lower than 992 mb. In any
event...now that the center is moving over the mountainous terrain
of the southwest peninsula of Haiti...Gustav is likely losing
strength. The eye is no longer evident on satellite images...and
the system could weaken below hurricane intensity tonight. However
the upper-level environment remains favorable for intensification
with only a little north-northeasterly shear...and therefore Gustav
is likely to regain strength as it approaches the Windward Passage
and eastern Cuba tomorrow. The official intensity forecast is a
blend of the SHIPS...lgem...HWRF...and GFDL guidance and is very
similar to the previous NHC wind speed forecast. It should be
recalled that both subjective and model forecasts of intensity have
little skill in the 3- to 5-day range.
Initial motion is around 305/9. The main player in the steering
pattern for Gustav continues to be a mid-tropospheric
anticyclone/high centered near the Florida Peninsula. The tropical
cyclone’s heading should gradually Bend toward the left as it moves
along the southern periphery of this anticyclone. Later in the
forecast period...Gustav is expected to turn toward the northwest
as it rounds the southwestern periphery of the high. The track
guidance models are in pretty good agreement on a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest over the next day or so...and overall the
model consensus has changed little from the previous advisory
package. Therefore the track forecast for this advisory is
essentially an extension of the previous one.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 26/2100z 18.4n 73.2w 65 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 18.9n 74.0w 75 kt
24hr VT 27/1800z 19.3n 75.2w 80 kt
36hr VT 28/0600z 19.5n 76.6w 85 kt
48hr VT 28/1800z 19.6n 78.0w 90 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 20.3n 81.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 22.5n 85.0w 105 kt
120hr VT 31/1800z 25.5n 88.5w 105 kt
$$
forecaster Pasch
AF300 is on the way to see what's up (hopefully not the wind).
Uh-oh. I remember seeing something about the levees being no better than they were in 2005.
Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Number 8
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2008
Between 21z and 01z this evening...radar imagery from the Cuban
radar site at gran Piedra depicted a nice doughnut shaped mid- to
upper-level eye feature along the north coast of the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti. However...since that time both radar and
satellite data indicate the eye feature has degenerated into a
ragged and poorly defined feature. Therefore...Gustav has been
downgraded to a tropical storm and the intensity lowered to 60
kt...which is only slightly below the t4.0/65 kt satellite
intensity estimates derived at 00z. Upper-level outflow is slightly
restricted but improving in the northwestern quadrant... and is
excellent in the other three quadrants.
The average motion over the past 6 hours is 290/07...although the
motion over the past 3 hours has been almost due west. The primary
steering mechanism for the next 5 days will be the large mid- to
upper-level anticyclone centered over the Florida Straits...which
is forecast to amplify northward over the southeastern U.S. And an
upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf is also expected to
be a player and act to slow down Gustav by day 5. The exceptions
are the GFDL and ECMWF models...which blast Gustav northwestward
through the upper-trough to the Texas coast. This seems physically
unlikely at this juncture. The official forecast calls for Gustav
to gradually move around the southern periphery of the mid-level
ridge to the north and move out into the central Gulf of Mexico by
days 4 and 5. The official forecast track is close to the previouos
advisory track...and remains on the right side of the guidance
envelope in the expectation that the southwesterlies associated
with the upper trough will play a more prominent role than
indicated by the GFDL and ECMWF.
Gustav is on the east side of a large upper-level anticyclone...
which is inducing some light northerly shear on the cyclone.
However...the flow is also strongly difluent...which should aid the
re-intensification process once Gustav clears the western portion
of Haiti. Both the upper-level flow and oceanic conditions over the
northwestern Caribbean between 36 and 72 hours are expected to be
conducive for significant intensification to occur...and this is
reflected in the official forecast by bringing Gustav to just below
category 4 strength by 72 hours. After that...possible eyewall
replacement cycles and southwesterly wind shear may create
intensity fluctuations in the latter forecast periods.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 27/0300z 18.6n 73.6w 60 kt
12hr VT 27/1200z 18.9n 74.5w 65 kt
24hr VT 28/0000z 19.0n 75.7w 75 kt
36hr VT 28/1200z 19.2n 77.1w 85 kt
48hr VT 29/0000z 19.4n 78.5w 95 kt
72hr VT 30/0000z 20.5n 82.2w 110 kt
96hr VT 31/0000z 23.0n 86.0w 110 kt
120hr VT 01/0000z 26.5n 89.5w 110 kt
$$
forecaster Stewart/Franklin
Per the Houston Chronicle and SciGuy Eric Berger:
The following map shows the probability, in terms of percentage, that a storm passing through a particular location will eventually strike Texas. The period of record is 1900 -2006.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/TexasProbBig-small.gif
It appears Texas has its own Hebert box/lane. Credits to Pablolopez26 of WeatherUnderground.
It's too early to start trying to pull all-nighters, so see everybody tomorrow.
Agree, g’nite! Hope this will not be nasty.
Also per the SciGuy and Eric Berger:
Historical August Tracks:
One way to study the question is to use NOAA's historical hurricane tracks tool. Using this database I compiled a list of major hurricanes (category-3, -4 and -5) that struck Mexico and the U.S. Gulf Coast in August between 1851 and 2006. They're plotted on the map below:
BFL.
At this time, it looks like its going to bounce off of South Pass, LA, and drift NE for about 24 hours. Landfall about 08 Sep 2 0700 CDT between Pensacola & Mobile w/40kts sustained.
For Pensacola Bay, Bay Point, Blackwater River:
2008-09-02 02:34 CDT 1.43 feet High Tide
2008-09-02 06:25 CDT Sunrise
2008-09-02 09:08 CDT Moonrise
2008-09-02 10:45 CDT 0.68 feet Low Tide
2008-09-02 19:09 CDT Sunset
2008-09-02 20:35 CDT Moonset
2008-09-03 02:39 CDT 1.69 feet High Tide
Tax dollars about to fly out the door again re-building this joint.
ping
Don’t think I’ve ever seen that many models so tightly bundled, this early in the game....
Spooky....
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