Tropical Depression 7

NOAA/NHC ^ | 08/25/2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the eastern Caribbean.

Public Advisories

Forecast Discussion

Buoy Data:
East Caribbean Buoys
West Caribbean Buoys
Florida Buoys

Visible Satellite Image

IR Sat Image Loop

Water Vapor Image Loop

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[hoagy62]

Ditto.

My in-laws in Cleveland, TX would be right underneath the path in the graphic if it holds that course.

Oh crap.

[NautiNurse]

Laundry and floor mopping is one thing, but this is a serious Spring cleaning jag. Happens every time. Weird.

[DaisyCutter]

8 PM models.

Guess we can always hope it runs the gap and spins itself out in the gulf, but that's wishful thinking I'm afraid.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Hi,ya’ll,,,

Looks like bout the same thing is gunna happen this time,,,

We can pull up to 4.4 million bpd from the SPR (98% full)

As for natural gas production,,,

I think some in-state production/use can be shifted to

out of state pipelines...

[steveegg]

Now that’s some serious fish. I’m more of the inland fishing myself (walleye, smallmouth bass, northern pike).

[steveegg]

An earlier run of that sent to me by somebody on Twitter is what brought me in here. That's very ugly.

I hope that Gustav doesn't make that "bit to the right of the early models" shift from that run (though I'd take the very-hard-right shift to the east of Florida the one outlier from this afternoon suggested).

[NautiNurse]

deja vu

[Amelia]

So far we’ve basically just gotten the fringe of all of them. If I get a Serious Spring Cleaning Jag when one is predicted, I’m going to pack everything up and RUN! :-)

[txhurl]

I’m already calling my Houston-area peeps telling them to plan to come up.

Just waiting for the other models to start agreeing with the GFDL, and I expect they will.

[txhurl]

The (BURNT ORANGE) outlier is the clp5 which is a climactic/historic model.

[deport]

The real question is what is the high that’s to the north going to do....... It will force the storm westward and if it holds it could possibly be headed for South Tx or Northern Mexico. Otherwise you maybe looking at company for sure.

[steveegg]

Almost like the “Twilight Zone”. The odd thing is the plane that was in Gustav this afternoon appeared to have left early, after just the one VDM report and a few other observations.

[steveegg]

Let history repeat itself then.

[eastforker]

That pic reminds me of a screen showing incoming nukes.

[yield 2 the right]

Bad one for sure......Prayers up for all GOM FR peers...

[NautiNurse]

Gustav was chewed up pretty well by Hispanola. Maybe, just maybe, he won’t recover from it.

[CindyDawg]

Days in just sent me a discount e-mail. Maybe I ought to hold on to it:’)

[yield 2 the right]

Distorted computer voice:
“Shall we play a gamee.”
David Lightman
“Major Hurricane Strike”
Distorted computer voice:
“Target?”
David Lightman
“Enitre GOM Coast.”

[raygun]

My money is on landfall South Pass, LA between 0100 CDT, and 1300 CDT with less than 50kts sustained. He should move inland NW deliberately and decisively.

2008-08-31 11:45 CDT 0.82 feet High Tide
2008-09-01 04:27 CDT 0.75 feet Low Tide
2008-09-01 07:34 CDT Sunrise
2008-09-01 10:18 CDT Moonrise
2008-09-01 11:58 CDT 1.04 feet High Tide
2008-09-01 17:27 CDT 0.90 feet Low Tide

All heights are +MSL.

However, if he spends an extra day in GOM, all bets are off on winds (probably no less than 100kts).

[lonestar]

isn’t it funny how people start a comment with no disrespect, but and follow it with something disrespectful and rude. I’m not going to call you stupid, but your profile says Texas...I hope you built strong enough for an F5.

As a Texan, I find the comments to be embarrassing...and not indicative of any wisdon.