Tropical Depression 7

NOAA/NHC ^ | 08/25/2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the eastern Caribbean.

Public Advisories

Forecast Discussion

Buoy Data:
East Caribbean Buoys
West Caribbean Buoys
Florida Buoys

Visible Satellite Image

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Water Vapor Image Loop

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[SouthTexas]

Haven’t had time to really look closely at it, but that was my knee-jerk reaction when I first looked at it.

Ya know, first impressions and all. Of course subject to change at a moments notice. LOL

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

CAT-1...http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2068112/posts

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 26, 2008

Gustav has continued to intensify during the late night hours. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has found flight-level
winds of 90 kt...peak SFMR surface winds of 76 kt...and a recent
estimated pressure of 984 mb. The initial intensity is
conservatively raised to 75 kt. Satellite images show an organizing
pattern with a central dense overcast becoming more prominent and
Gustav is likely not done intensifying before it passes over
southwestern Haiti later today. Some weakening is shown in 24 hr
due to the land interaction with Haiti. Thereafter...the hurricane
is forecast to be over extremely warm waters with relatively light
shear. The official intensity forecast is increased and now calls
for Gustav to be a major hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. It is Worth noting that both the GFDL/HWRF forecast show an
even stronger hurricane. Most indications are that Gustav will be
an extremely dangerous hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea
in a few days.

The initial motion estimate is 315/8...though Gustav may recently be
moving a bit more to the right. The biggest change to note this
morning is a dramatic southwestward shift with almost all guidance.
A large upper trough over the western Atlantic is expected to move
east away from Gustav...leaving ridging over the Bahamas and
Florida. Global models have come into much better agreement that
the hurricane will turn to the west-northwest or even west in a day
or so due to this building ridge. The official forecast has been
adjusted southwestward beyond 24 hr but is still on the northern
edge of the guidance envelope. The forecast could have been
shifted even more to the left but we’d prefer to wait until the
guidance becomes more stable.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0900z 17.2n 71.9w 75 kt
12hr VT 26/1800z 18.0n 72.9w 85 kt
24hr VT 27/0600z 18.8n 74.3w 75 kt
36hr VT 27/1800z 19.2n 75.6w 80 kt
48hr VT 28/0600z 19.4n 76.9w 85 kt
72hr VT 29/0600z 20.0n 79.3w 90 kt
96hr VT 30/0600z 21.0n 82.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 31/0600z 23.0n 85.5w 100 kt

$$
forecaster Blake/Avila

[Uncle Ike]

****trail of breadcrumbs****

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Gustav...winds 85 mph...
moving NW at 9 mph toward the SW coast
of Haiti...pressure 984mb.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[WorkerbeeCitizen]

Thanx NN - just saw it at Crown Weather - ugh

[flattorney]

Nothing to see here with the current large increase in Atlantic basin tropical storms-hurricane activity. The increase is only being caused by Al Gore ramping-up man-made global warming affects so the Democrats-Soros Shadow Party can haul in the illegal 501c3 loot, I mean "donations", during the DemoRats National Convention. It's too bad John McInsane also believes in Gore's MMGW public fraud. Oh well, as long as a major storm doesn't come through Key Biscayne this season we will be happy.

Keep up the outstanding work NN. You're the best!

LATEST projections show Gustav will become a CAT 3 when it gets over Gulf waters but luckly well west of South Florida. Could be higher winds if goes through Yucatan Strait which currently is a higher probability.


Stack 'em, pack 'em, and rack 'em... Fred Thompson, Die Hard 2 (1990)

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[NautiNurse]

[NautiNurse]

Gustav is French isn’t it?

Swedish...aka Svedish.

[NautiNurse]

Oil Prices Rise On Worries About Hurricane Gustav

[Elle Bee]

I don't wish them any ill wind to the west ... but I hope Gustav keeps heading that way

we've already begun to see a little weather from the system

.

[NautiNurse]

If the current track holds, this one will miss Florida with a fairly wide birth.

[IamConservative]

Sure beginning to look like someplace is going to get whacked good. Let’s hope we continue to not see the Cat 5 monsters.

[SouthTexas]

Looks like it will shoot the gap, but none of the models point at the Texas coast, for the moment anyway.

[Elle Bee]

the next two weeks of this season always have me a little antsy

and behind Gustav there is more weather coming off Africa now

.

[WorkerbeeCitizen]

Any excuse to bleed us.

[houeto]

Wow 4 feet of rain that enormous.

Yea, and that was in a 24 hour period, not the whole storm total.

[NautiNurse]

the next two weeks of this season always have me a little antsy

The #1 reason why I never make travel plans for Labor Day. As well, I try to discourage my clients from planning my site visits from mid-August through September. I've had to cancel/cut short too many over the years.

[Hatteras]

That was GasTON...

;-)

[flattorney]

Looks like it will shoot the gap, but none of the models point at the Texas coast, for the moment anyway.

The target landfall forecast depends on what the Northwest low pressure front does, as to angle and timing, later this week.

Speaking of Texas, I was surprised how extensive the property damage was to South Padre Island from Hurricane Dolly. She fooled everyone the way it intensified as it hit land, like what Hurricane Wilma did to us in 2005. Among other property, Dolly knocked out SPI's top 3 hotels, with one stating November before it will be repaired and another stated 1st quarter 2009 before they can reopen. Major mult-million dollar insurance claims from that one.