Posted on 08/15/2008 1:25:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.
Updates:
Satellite:
Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop
Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys
Radar
Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Lifted from WU - a local met’s forecast:
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 9:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2008
...Fay slows down and weakens over east-central Florida...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Jupiter Inlet to Flagler Beach...and for Lake
Okeechobee.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida East Coast north of
Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound...Georgia.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to
the Savannah River.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 900 PM EDT...0100z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located
near latitude 27.5 north...longitude 80.9 west or about 45 miles...
75 km...south-southwest of Melbourne Florida.
Fay has moved little over the past couple of hours but a
north-northeastward motion near 6 mph...9 km/hr....is expected
tonight. A gradual turn toward the north with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Wednesday. This track should bring
Fay over water on Wednesday.
Surface observations and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60
mph...95 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some further weakening is
expected overnight but Fay will likely begin to restrengthen when
it moves over the Atlantic waters.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb...29.18 inches.
Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
over the central Florida Peninsula...with maximum total amounts of
15 inches. Accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas.
Storm tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible along the
East Coast of Florida as Fay approaches.
Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight over portions of the
east-central Florida Peninsula.
Repeating the 900 PM EDT position...27.5 N...80.9 W.
Movement...nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...988 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Rhome
Feh
On channel 13 (local news all the time) they speculated that it might take a much harder turn to the north.
We’ll see what we can do to haul Fay out of your neighborhood by departing for New Orleans tomorrow. Maybe the storm will follow us.
oh thats just great, we could use another foot of rain.
Going by the models, it’s going to turn now way before it gets to us...I almost wouldn’t be surprised if it just turned back on itself.
This is sure a Krazzy one!!!
Looks like it could come back into the Gulf,,,(BAMM),,,
Invest 94 is the one that worries me...:0/
I’ll take an immediate turn due east, please.
an exit stage right would suit me fine.
You may be seeing her in LA.
GOM water temps still pretty high.
Looking at the NWS Composite loop .. it does look like Fay is headed for the inlet which leaves us in the friendlier western half.
I’m in Winter Park. If it turns north now, even just a little bit, we get a yucky day again tomorrow. That would probably be better than it going out over water and coming back in.
Fay is an escaped mental patient....
Fay has been fickle, defying predictions to intensify since the start. On the other hand, Dora had plenty of time to increase intensity as it trekked across the Atlantic Ocean until JAX landfall.
~~~~
Been checking thru the day from the office, and all I can say is Fay really REALLY likes Florida. She is one freaky sister. Hope you all are safe and dry.
Does it still look like Tampa and my old home area of Plant City are gonna escape her misery?
I’m thinking it is a lot more easterly motion, fitting with the models on the extreme right (Fay is a conservative?)
It does look like it might follow you.
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