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Tropical Storm Fay
NOAA/NHC ^ | 15 August 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 08/15/2008 1:25:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse

The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.

Updates:

Atlantic Tropical Info

Satellite:

Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop

Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys

Radar

Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop

Storm Track Models

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: alabama; fay; florida; georgia; invest92; mississippi; noaa; tropical; tsfay; weather
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68

Lifted from WU - a local met’s forecast:


Strong fall like high building over New England next few days will trap Fay
from it’s forward advance only place to go is the least resistance and that
is west or even a loop SW.


1,281 posted on 08/19/2008 6:08:37 PM PDT by txhurl
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Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 9:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2008

...Fay slows down and weakens over east-central Florida...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Jupiter Inlet to Flagler Beach...and for Lake
Okeechobee.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida East Coast north of
Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound...Georgia.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to
the Savannah River.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 900 PM EDT...0100z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located
near latitude 27.5 north...longitude 80.9 west or about 45 miles...
75 km...south-southwest of Melbourne Florida.

Fay has moved little over the past couple of hours but a
north-northeastward motion near 6 mph...9 km/hr....is expected
tonight. A gradual turn toward the north with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Wednesday. This track should bring
Fay over water on Wednesday.

Surface observations and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60
mph...95 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some further weakening is
expected overnight but Fay will likely begin to restrengthen when
it moves over the Atlantic waters.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb...29.18 inches.

Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
over the central Florida Peninsula...with maximum total amounts of
15 inches. Accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas.

Storm tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible along the
East Coast of Florida as Fay approaches.

Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight over portions of the
east-central Florida Peninsula.

Repeating the 900 PM EDT position...27.5 N...80.9 W.
Movement...nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...988 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Rhome


1,282 posted on 08/19/2008 6:15:34 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: yield 2 the right
Fay being Fay...

Feh

1,283 posted on 08/19/2008 6:16:22 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: sheikdetailfeather
Per local Orlando news WFTV the storm has stalled.....

On channel 13 (local news all the time) they speculated that it might take a much harder turn to the north.

1,284 posted on 08/19/2008 6:18:04 PM PDT by aberaussie
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To: sheikdetailfeather; yield 2 the right; Amelia

We’ll see what we can do to haul Fay out of your neighborhood by departing for New Orleans tomorrow. Maybe the storm will follow us.


1,285 posted on 08/19/2008 6:22:16 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: sheikdetailfeather

oh thats just great, we could use another foot of rain.


1,286 posted on 08/19/2008 6:22:33 PM PDT by WorkerbeeCitizen (Seinfeld was a show about nothing - so is Obama.)
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To: NautiNurse

1,287 posted on 08/19/2008 6:24:24 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: aberaussie

Going by the models, it’s going to turn now way before it gets to us...I almost wouldn’t be surprised if it just turned back on itself.


1,288 posted on 08/19/2008 6:26:53 PM PDT by Amelia
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To: txflake

This is sure a Krazzy one!!!

Looks like it could come back into the Gulf,,,(BAMM),,,

Invest 94 is the one that worries me...:0/


1,289 posted on 08/19/2008 6:30:08 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: Amelia

I’ll take an immediate turn due east, please.


1,290 posted on 08/19/2008 6:31:03 PM PDT by NonValueAdded (College kid: "Do you have a minute for Obama?" NVA: "Not now or ever.")
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To: NonValueAdded

an exit stage right would suit me fine.


1,291 posted on 08/19/2008 6:32:12 PM PDT by WorkerbeeCitizen (Seinfeld was a show about nothing - so is Obama.)
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68

You may be seeing her in LA.

GOM water temps still pretty high.


1,292 posted on 08/19/2008 6:34:24 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: WorkerbeeCitizen

Looking at the NWS Composite loop .. it does look like Fay is headed for the inlet which leaves us in the friendlier western half.


1,293 posted on 08/19/2008 6:35:23 PM PDT by NonValueAdded (College kid: "Do you have a minute for Obama?" NVA: "Not now or ever.")
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To: Amelia

I’m in Winter Park. If it turns north now, even just a little bit, we get a yucky day again tomorrow. That would probably be better than it going out over water and coming back in.


1,294 posted on 08/19/2008 6:35:53 PM PDT by aberaussie
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To: txflake

Fay is an escaped mental patient....


1,295 posted on 08/19/2008 6:36:25 PM PDT by yield 2 the right
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To: blam
Hey you! The same forecast models that originally picked up Fay's left turn...are now bringing Fay back into the GOM with a GPS homing device directly into Mobile.


1,296 posted on 08/19/2008 6:37:01 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse; rodguy911; SE Mom; All

Fay has been fickle, defying predictions to intensify since the start. On the other hand, Dora had plenty of time to increase intensity as it trekked across the Atlantic Ocean until JAX landfall.

~~~~

Been checking thru the day from the office, and all I can say is Fay really REALLY likes Florida. She is one freaky sister. Hope you all are safe and dry.

Does it still look like Tampa and my old home area of Plant City are gonna escape her misery?


1,297 posted on 08/19/2008 6:38:45 PM PDT by STARWISE (They (Dims) think of this WOT as Bush's war, not America's war-RichardMiniter, respected OBL author)
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To: NautiNurse
Not sure what this means but Tom Terry, Chief Meteorologist with WFTV in Orlando just said "Folks..we have a lot of changes to the forecast track we are working on here back at news center 9 and we will be back in half an hour."
1,298 posted on 08/19/2008 6:40:36 PM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (DRILL HERE-DRILL NOW-PAY LESS)
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To: sheikdetailfeather

I’m thinking it is a lot more easterly motion, fitting with the models on the extreme right (Fay is a conservative?)


1,299 posted on 08/19/2008 6:42:44 PM PDT by NonValueAdded (College kid: "Do you have a minute for Obama?" NVA: "Not now or ever.")
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To: NautiNurse

It does look like it might follow you.


1,300 posted on 08/19/2008 6:43:27 PM PDT by Amelia
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