Posted on 08/14/2008 5:41:41 AM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson
From the incident when two Czechoslovak airplanes flew over the German fortified town of Glatz in a promontory so projecting into Czechoslovakia as to make the explanation of an accident due to loss of orientation inherently probable the Germans are seeking to create a casus belli, threatening a second Almeria on the Czechoslovak frontier in the event of a repetition.
Once again Czechoslovakia is subjected to a test of her nerves, this time even more severe than before May 21: a barrage of false assertions and distorted facts – heavier than that which heralded reports of troop concentrations on May 19 - that might well be the prelude to a lightning attack. German plans for such an attack are well known.
Constant Fear of Attack
There is not a single day when those responsible for Czechoslovakia’s destinies have not to consider the possibility of an assault on the most frivolous excuse with the object, as German military experts in Berlin boast, of wiping out the Czechoslovak defense forces within two or three days.
Against all this they are standing firm. Against the German experts’ views that the Czech defenses would be destroyed within three days, the Czech experts declare they could hold out unaided for from three to six months, during which France and Russia would fulfill their treaty obligations. It is believed that it is not against the wishes of Germany’s rulers, that the Czech intelligence receives such full reports of military preparations. Authorities here incline to the view they would hear less were invasion really pending.
It is considered here that there is no inherent justification for the latest German explosion, since on the balance it is unlikely that Germany really intends plunging Europe into war next week; there remains as an explanation only Lord Runciman. Sent out by his friend Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, under the thin pretext that he is a private philanthropist rushing in where the angels of peace fear to tread, the Germans calculate he can be used to secure every concession such as would enable Hitler to achieve his aims to disrupt and dominate the republic by the threat of, but without resort to, war. So the electricity in the atmosphere is artificially increased to the point where an explosion is to seem inevitable to the mediator unless he can extort a Czech surrender.
To Put On “Pressure”
Rightly or wrongly the Czechs assume he has come determined to increase British pressure long exercised on President Eduard Benes and Premier Milan Hodza to this end. They are certain that the British official view is that the republic has got to go anyway since Hitler demands it and it is better for the world that she should be quietly and expeditiously asphyxiated rather than resist an attack with the sword and so make an unpleasant mess in Europe’s drawing room.
In this trial of nerves Lord Runciman’s hopes for success depend on the strength of his own and Mr. Chamberlain’s nerves. If either allows himself to be stampeded into demanding Czechoslovakia’s surrender on the vital point of territorial autonomy and recognition of the “Sudeten German folk group” as a legal personality the Runciman mission is doomed to failure. Any government agreeing thus to surrender would be swept off overnight.
Official Britain apparently professes to believe and wishes also that the Czechs believe that the hopes of support from France and Russia are baseless – that the French people would refuse to fight for them, that the Red army is worthless, that Czechoslovakia has no hope of surviving a general European war, but has only the choice between peacefully surrendering or being stamped into the soil within a few days. On each point informed Czechoslovak opinion is precisely the opposite. Therefore, defeatism from abroad has little hope for success. If Lord Runciman’s nerves are good enough to hold out through the German barrage of talk – and to convince the Sudetens that Britain will not acquiesce to the destruction of Czechoslovakia and that the Sudetens must become good citizens of the republic – there is much success possible.
What Mediator Could Do
Certainly he could persuade the Czechs to go farther even than the recent generous nationalities statute toward realizing full equality of all peoples in such questions as language, the widest local self government without imperiling the central authority and securing full proportionality of State employment.
The last, naturally, will be subject to the proviso that until the Sudeten Germans have given solid proofs of loyalty it will be impossible to entrust them with positions where they could endanger national security. Within such obvious safeguards Lord Runciman could secure reparation for every mistake the Czechs undoubtedly have made in past years, thus laying the foundations for decent relations in the future between all citizens of the republic. But this presupposes that the Sudetens really seek reforms and not disintegration and that Mr. Chamberlain desires no dissolution but preservation of this bulwark of Britain’s route to the East, which is a democratic republic and an ally of France And Russia.
The “third Europe” to which Poland belongs, consisting of countries desirous of remaining neutral in the great game between the Western democratic powers and the totalitarian axis, is held to be not a coalition but merely a loose understanding among smaller States pursuing independent policies, refusing to be influenced by outside interests and sharing a common desire to avoid being involved in conflict and becoming the battlefield in a war between existing blocs.
Mind Their Own Business
It is asserted by the same circles that these countries mind their own business and that their object is peace. In brief, Poland merely aims at closer cooperation among these States without binding them by common policies or pacts.
This vague formula, translated into plain language, means that Poland desires to free herself of any international obligations that might involve her in war. She seeks the support of other countries where views on international cooperation and collective security have undergone a similar evolution.
At present the main object of Polish diplomacy is revision of the sanctions article in the League of Nations Covenant and possible reform of the Covenant itself. Poland unwillingly joined in sanctions against Italy three years ago and was the first to abandon them.
Warsaw’s hostility to Article XVI has grown with the Czechoslovak complications. It is believed not impossible, if the League were asked to deal with the case of Czechoslovakia in the event of German aggression that Poland might be automatically obliged to facilitate assistance to the victim of aggression. In practice that would amount to allowing Soviet munitions, if not Soviet troops or planes, passage over Polish territory.
Troop Passage Barred
But it is an axiom of Warsaw’s foreign policy that Soviet troops will never be allowed passage over Polish territory or even that of Rumania, Latvia or Estonia. Consequently it is considered that Article XVI should be revised and its clauses made optional, lest League membership become a liability to Poland instead of an asset.
A Baltic-Black Sea bloc under Poland’s leadership as a bulwark between Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany would of course be the best instrument of such neutrality policies, but the idea is unfavorably received in the Scandinavian States and in Latvia, which fears it might be regarded by Moscow as a hostile, pro-German group.
Colonel Beck’s diplomacy now aims at obtaining an even balance between the Soviet and the Third Reich. The bloc idea was dropped immediately it became evident that it would remain outside the field of practical politics. It is believed now that a common attitude in Geneva toward Article XVI would provide a good substitute.
The Germans in 1938 had a very good army.
The Soviets in 1939 had a really bad army. About 90% of their higher officers had just been murdered by Stalin, and the remainder were for obvious reasons scared to death of doing anything that might show a spark of initiative.
Even assuming the Czechs were as good as the Finns, which is pretty unlikely, I don’t see any way they could have duplicated their resistance. Even the Finns had to submit once General Winter was no longer in play.
The Czechs also had the problem that 25% of the total population of the country was on the other side. 1/3 of population of the Czech lands was German, and about 90% of the area in which any fighting would actually take place.
[Note: I was surprised to see that Jodl was a mere colonel this late. I did a short search and read that he was promoted to major general in 1935. So I don’t know what the real story is.-Homer]
At OKW (the High Command of the Armed Forces) and at OKH (the High Command of the Army) there was incessant activity. Final plans were being drawn up to have the armed forces ready for the push-off into Czechoslovakia by October 1. On August 24, Colonel Jodl at OKW wrote an urgent memorandum for Hitler stressing that “the fixing of the exact time for the ‘incident’ which will give Germany provocation for military intervention is most important.” The timing of X Day, he explained, depended on it.
No advance measures [he went on] may be taken before X minus 1 for which there is not an innocent explanation, as otherwise we shall appear to have manufactured the incident. . . . If for technical reasons the evening hours should be considered desirable for the incident, then the following day cannot be X Day, but it must be the day after that. . . . It is the purpose of these notes to point out what a great interest the Wehrmacht has in the incident and that it must be informed of the Fuehrer’s intention in good time – insofar as the Abwehr Section [Army Intelligence-Homer] is not also charged with organizing the incident.
William L. Shirer, The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, Pg. 377
Substitute "Georgia" for "Czechoslovakia", "Russia" for "Germany", and "Crimea" for "Polish Corridor", and it could be 2008.
Also don't forget that there was no love lost from the Slovaks.
Probably a poor translation by someone who should have known better. Oberst, while usually used to mean the rank of colonel (or in the case of Generaloberst, Colonel General), really means 'highest' or 'ranking' (From the German ober, or 'upper'.)
Thus, the excerpt should probably (and would be accurate if it) read, 'On August 24, OKW boss (or chief) Jodl wrote..."
I’ll bet you are exactly right. Thanks.
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