Conditions should be favorable for development and already pretty close into the U.S.
Posted on 08/02/2008 11:46:18 AM PDT by nwctwx
Conditions should be favorable for development and already pretty close into the U.S.
awake and watching - so nothing happening there?
Good.
Weather maps all look like the storm is moving up more to affect Louisiana - Western side...but just from “looking” at the storm now not at the projected path.
Enjoy the rains if they come near you!
The current track looks more like Beaumont/Port Arthur than Houston/Galveston.
Well, that’s okay. Maybe Edouard will stir up some shrimp from Lake Charles and we’ll all have good old Cajun gumbo.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on August 05, 2008
...Corrected time of warning/watch discontinuance...
...Edouard strengthens a little more as it approaches the northwest
Gulf Coast...
At 4 am CDT...0900 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch are discontinued south of Sargent Texas.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana
westward to Sargent Texas.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from west of Intracoastal City
Louisiana to Sargent Texas.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 400 am CDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was
located near latitude 29.3 north...longitude 93.4 west or about 50
miles... 80 km...southeast of Port Arthur Texas and about 85 miles
...135 km...east of Galveston Texas.
Edouard is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr
...And this motion is expected to continue today. On the
forecast track...the center of Edouard is expected to be near or
over the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts by midday
today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible prior to landfall
and Edouard could approach hurricane strength by the time its
center crosses the coast.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 997 mb...29.44 inches.
A storm surge of 2 to 4 ft above normal tide levels can be expected
in the warning area in areas of onshore winds.
Edouard is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches in some southwestern Louisiana coastal parishes and
southeastern Texas. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are
possible over portions of southeastern Texas.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southwestern
Louisiana and southeastern Texas today.
Repeating the 400 am CDT position...29.3 N...93.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...65
mph. Minimum central pressure...997 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 700 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
am CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 8
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 05, 2008
WSR-88D Doppler radar data show increased organization of the storm
overnight. Spiral banding features have become better
defined...however there is still not much evidence of an eyewall.
Peak Doppler velocities were near 65 kt at elevations of 3000-5000
ft and the Air Force hurricane hunter SFMR recorded surface winds
of 53 and 56 kt over the northwest quadrant in an area of very
heavy rain. Additionally...the 850 mb flight level winds from the
hurricane hunters were 68 kt over the same area...corresponding to
a surface wind speed of 54 kt. Therefore the current intensity is
now estimated to be 55 kt. The southwestern Louisiana coastal
waters have a very high skin temperature but do not have a
particularly high oceanic heat content. Water vapor animation
suggests that the vertical shear is decreasing and upper-level
outflow is increasing so dynamical conditions appear conducive for
some additional intensification in the short time remaining before
landfall. Edouard might still become a hurricane before crossing
the coast but...as noted earlier...there is little practical
difference between a strong tropical storm and a low-end
hurricane. The intensity forecast follows the decay-SHIPS guidance
rather closely.
Aircraft and radar fixes show that the motion is a little faster and
to the right of the previous estimate...and is now 300/10. The
steering flow for Edouard is being provided by a mid-tropospheric
anticyclone near the lower portion of the Mississippi Valley. This
synoptic pattern will persist during at least the next 12
hours...bringing the center of the tropical cyclone inland within
the warning area later today. Based on the current motion which is
a little more to the north than earlier...the official forecast is
shifted a bit to the right of the previous track and is just a
little to the north of the dynamical model consensus.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 05/0900z 29.3n 93.4w 55 kt
12hr VT 05/1800z 30.1n 95.1w 55 kt...inland
24hr VT 06/0600z 31.0n 97.2w 35 kt...inland
36hr VT 06/1800z 31.9n 99.3w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 07/0600z 32.8n 101.3w 25 kt...remnant low
72hr VT 08/0600z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Pasch
Per usual, the GOM storm has made its customary jog to the right prior to landfall. One of these days, this phenomenon will be wrapped into the forecast-—and we will be surprised.
HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS, FOLKS! HERE IT COMES!
So who is going to get the needed rain!
Light rain as the outer bands start to move in, no wind yet. we are in the NW quadrant now since it shifted.Looks like a rainy day all day.
Looks like you’ll receive the beneficial rain. Unfortunately, the parched areas to your SW may not.
oh im not going... our school finally got some common sense... the canadians are still having it though... im stayin right here in la porte...
drat...was looking forward to the photos.
Smart move. My family is in Louisiana near Lafayette. I checked in with them this morning. My sister lives in Houma LA. Bad weather yesterday and about 30 MPH winds.
Canadians will learn their lesson.
The center seems as if it may have become a little stuck, not moving much right now.
That may burn us though. We have come to think “be ready but it’s probably going to go a little north”. Hope they let us know if they start factoring it in.
My boss had to go to Galveston this week. She had just went thru Dolly.
Yall enjoy the rain. Heads up though. Prayer for yall.
FNC describing dejected surfers in Gavelston.
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