Conditions should be favorable for development and already pretty close into the U.S.
Posted on 08/02/2008 11:46:18 AM PDT by nwctwx
Conditions should be favorable for development and already pretty close into the U.S.
I almost slept thru Alicia—in Houston. Looked out my window and the trees were almost on the ground but the rain wasn’t hitting the window and phone woke me up! I was without electricity until about 8pm—remember that!
We had a similar storm yesterday. Gusts to 45 or 50 and lightning! Lasted about 30 minutes...1.5 in. of rain we needed badly. I’m in Jasper.
Ahh then you know where Second Baptist Church is. I live right beside it at the north end of Ripple Creek right by the golf course and the bayou.
I had friends on Ripple Creek!
Btt
Not sure...I think so.
Gravelston, Oh gravelston ....
I can hear your sand trucks crashing.....
No. That doesn’t work either.
If you squirt a mosquiter with insect repellent, does it go crazy trying to avoid itself?
Ok, Freepers, I need some help/advice re: hurricane...
I am signed up to go to an expensive seminar for my job tomorrow at a Bush Intercontinental Hotel (along with several other people I work with....)
I live in La Porte and the seminar is from 9-5, we are to leave southeast houston at 7:30 in the morning...
The company putting on the seminar is from Canada so they will not cancel seminar cause they don’t see the big deal about a “small” hurricane/tropical storm
Problem is I don’t want to leave home tomorrow and travel in wind/rain, leaving my husband and child at home and perhaps get stuck on the other side of houston if the city loses power....
Several of the people I work with don’t have a problem going, becuase they are from Michigan and Wisconsin and other non-hurricane areas...I am not panicking but someone help me to know what to do. Even Mayor White announced earlier to please stay home and leave roads clear for emergency vehicles...
What do I do??
Hi neighbor, well almost, I live on Chimney Rock and Memorial.
“Greetings from about a block west of the big Bungee chair at Galveston.”
Fishing the pier right there, we’ve often joked that the chair must be a religious experience of some kind, what with all the folks screaming ‘oh God!’ and the like.
You can hear them all the way out at the end, 1/4 mile at the ‘T’. LOL!
It’s probably not going to kill anyone, but I wouldn’t want to be in Galveston or Kemah tomorrow.
It’s just going to be a bad day to be outdoors or even near an unprotected window.
Where’s Glenn Campbell when ya need him!
IAH is way up there, what, 100 miles from the coast? I’d go to the gig and take BW-8 back home.
On the other hand, you can tell the brass that Houston is closed tomorrow. I told my Chicago yank bosses that when Rita paid a visit, no problem.
1) Send husband and kids from southeast side of Houston to northwest side of Houston, (i.e. near you) at the seminar.
Have them stay in hotel room, enjoy the day.
You attend seminar in NW side of Houston and make sure boss sees you there, then leave, returning (NOT to home on SE side of Houston) but to their hotel room(s) in NW side of Houston. Enjoy stay overnight, laugh about the “quick vacation” later.
Take pictures.
Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 7
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 04, 2008
Edouard has not changed much in organization in satellite imagery
during the past several hours...as a combination of southerly
vertical wind shear and possible dry and entrainment has confined
the convection to the northern and eastern quadrants. However...
there have been several intense convective bursts near the
center...and the WSR-88D Doppler at Lake Charles is showing winds
of 60-65 kt at 10000 ft north of the center. Based on this...the
initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.
Some reformation of the center occurred between 18z-00z...and since
that ended there has been a more northward motion. The initial
motion is now 290/6. Other than that...there is little change in
the track forecast philosophy. Edouard should move west-
northwestward on the south side of the low/mid-level ridge over the
Southern Plains until landfall and eventual dissipation over
Texas...as shown by all the large-scale guidance. The new forecast
track follows this scenario...calling for a west-northwestward
motion with some increase in forward speed before landfall. The
new track is nudged a little to the north of the previous track and
is down the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted
that while the forecast track calls for landfall on the Upper Texas
coast...any deviation to the north of the track would bring the
center inland over southwestern Louisiana.
The intensity forecast is somewhat problematic. The shear...
possible dry air...and relative lack of convective organization
argue against rapid strengthening before landfall. However...the
convective bursts have been strong enough to cause some
strengthening...and the shear is forecast to diminish before
landfall. None of the intensity guidance now calls for Edouard to
become a hurricane before landfall...so the intensity forecast will
continue to call for landfall as a 55-60 kt tropical storm.
However...there is still a chance the storm could become a
hurricane before landfall. It’s important to remember that there
is very little practical difference between a very strong tropical
storm and a low-end hurricane. After landfall...Edouard should
weaken and eventually dissipate over central Texas.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 05/0300z 28.7n 92.2w 50 kt
12hr VT 05/1200z 29.1n 93.5w 55 kt
24hr VT 06/0000z 30.0n 95.6w 45 kt...inland
36hr VT 06/1200z 31.1n 97.9w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 07/0000z 32.0n 99.9w 20 kt...remnant low
72hr VT 08/0000z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Beven
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on August 04, 2008
...Edouard strengthens and turns west-northwestward...
at 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
east of Grand Isle Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Grand Isle westward
to Port O’Connor Texas.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from west of Intracoastal City
Louisiana to Port O’Connor.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1000 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was
located near latitude 28.7 north...longitude 92.2 west or about 105
miles...170 km...south of Lafayette Louisiana and about 160 miles...
260 km...east-southeast of Galveston Texas.
Edouard is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase
in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track...the center of Edouard is expected to be near or over the
Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts by midday Tuesday.
Reports from coastal Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher gusts.
Edouard is forecast to strengthen...and it is expected to be near
hurricane strength by the time it reaches the coastline during
the day tomorrow.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center. Several elevated oil rigs south of the Louisiana
coast have been reporting sustained winds of 45 to 55 mph during
the past few hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
A storm surge of 2 to 4 ft above normal tide levels can be expected
in the warning area in areas of onshore winds.
Edouard is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches in some Louisiana coastal parishes. Accumulations of 4 to 6
inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible
over southeastern Texas.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southern Louisiana
and the Upper Texas coast tonight and Tuesday.
Repeating the 1000 PM CDT position...28.7 N...92.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...999 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 100 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 400
am CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
You should be able to get there. Whether you’ll get back is in doubt.
Make a motel reservation?
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