Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
Looks pretty big to me too,,,
That center of circulation is still heading Due North,,,
Atlantic Floater 2
Dolly
Visible Image - Loop
Sure looks like an eye is forming,,,
Radar shows the south side closing more than the last loop.
Been heading Due North for over 30 min. now,,,
How long before a direction change is declared by NHC ?
For good reason, NHC uses a long-term average of motion; 6-12 hours. Storms wobble a lot.
Next report is 4:00. They don’t do interim ones until it’s on the coast.
Dr. Lyons is sticking to his Brownsville guns.
True Dat,,,we should get an update soon...
That one should be interesting,,,maybe CAT-1...
Dr. Lyons is sticking to his Brownsville guns.
~~~
I bet his Hurricane Forcastin’ Ruler is better than mine.;0)
Movement toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds 75 mph. Minimum central pressure...986 mb.
At 400 PM CDT the center of Hurricane Dolly was located about
165 miles east-southeast of Brownsville Texas.
Dolly is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 10
inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...over much of south
Texas and northeastern Mexico over the next few days.
Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on July 22, 2008
...Dolly becomes a hurricane...the second of the 2008 hurricane
season...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the coast of Texas from
Brownsville to Corpus Christi...and for the northeast coast of
Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the border between Mexico
and the United States. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Corpus
Christi to San Luis Pass.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect from La
Pesca to south of Rio San Fernando.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 400 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Dolly was located
near latitude 24.6 north...longitude 95.3 west or about 165 miles...
265 km...east-southeast of Brownsville Texas.
Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr.
This motion should bring the core of Dolly near northeastern Mexico
or extreme southern Texas on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...120
km/hr...with higher gusts. Dolly is a category one hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast before
landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160
miles...260 km. Tropical storm force winds should begin to reach
the coasts of northeast Mexico and southern Texas later tonight.
Minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter aircraft was
986 mb...29.12 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 10
inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...over much of south
Texas and northeastern Mexico over the next few days.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
A few tornadoes are possible overnight across the lower and middle
Texas coasts.
Repeating the 400 PM CDT position...24.6 N...95.3 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph.
Minimum central pressure...986 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 700 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 22, 2008
Dolly is being closely monitored by the NWS radar from
Brownsville...NOAA buoys..satellite and very importantly...by an
Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft. The radar is measuring 75
knots at about 20 thousand feet and show numerous rainbands already
approaching the coasts of northeast Mexico and southern Texas.
Dvorak estimates suggest that Dolly is a hurricane and wind data
just received from the reconnaissance aircraft have confirmed it.
Initial intensity is 65 knots. With the prevailing low
shear...Dolly is forecast to reach the coast a little bit stronger.
Dolly is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 9 knots.
This general track should continue for the next 24 hours with a
small decrease in forward speed. On this track...the core of Dolly
should be near the US/Mexico border within the warning area on
Wednesday. Dolly is large cyclone and tropical storm force winds
will begin to affect the area tonight. After landfall...Dolly
should turn more to west as a subtropical ridge builds to the north
of the cyclone. Most of the track models are in good agreement
bringing the core of Dolly inland in about 24 hours. It should be
re-emphasized that...due to the inherent uncertainties...one must
not focus on the exact landfall point in this forecast.
Due to the slow motion at landfall...Dolly could dump very heavy
rains in the area.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/2100z 24.6n 95.3w 65 kt
12hr VT 23/0600z 25.3n 96.4w 70 kt
24hr VT 23/1800z 26.0n 97.5w 80 kt...inland
36hr VT 24/0600z 26.0n 99.0w 40 kt...inland
48hr VT 24/1800z 26.0n 100.5w 25 kt...remnant low
72hr VT 25/1800z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Avila
Prayers for all in harm's way.
With landfall imminent, this thread has been moved to News and placed in the Front Page sidebar.
Dolly’s a Cat 1,
round and round she goes,
where she stops,
nobody knows.
Much appreciated! :o)
Sea Surface Temp along the coast is about 29C. Some people at easternuswx think Dolly could grow to cat-3.
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java2/seatemp.html
From Dr. Masters’ blog:
However, the GFS and ECMWF hint that Dolly may stall out right by the coast Wednesday, and some slow and erratic motion is possible tomorrow before the storm finally comes ashore.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=995&tstamp=200807
TANKS,NN...
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