Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
Visible rainbow loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
I think we’ll find in a few minutes that she WILL head West.
No rain for centex :(
hmnnn... looks like an eye has finally popped up
Nevermind, I was thinking Matamoros, Monterrey is a long way from the coast, she should be fine.
That said, everything has the potential to flood during a TS or hurricane. If you can contact her, just tell her to be careful.
lol... 15 models... and still, no one knows... :-)
All depends on forward movement... Let’s hope it continues.
Unless Dolly really slows down, points NE of Corpus Christi will only notice mild effects from the storm. A change in breeze and maybe a stray shower.
If I lived in one of those crappy colonias near Brownsville, I’d be worried. Sheet metal walls aren’t really Category 1 proof.
Oddly, the CLP5 model which is now the furthest South was the furthest North at noon today, predicting from CC right up over Austin.
This Navy image shows what looks to be eyewall formation.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/04L.DOLLY/tmi/tmi_37v/full/Latest.html
Thanks for the ping.
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 21, 2008
Dolly has continued to generate deep convection near the core this
evening...and now shows evidence of wrapping a band in the southern
semicircle against the easterly shear...which has been decreasing.
Data from the NOAA aircraft...however...indicate that the surface
center is south of the apparent infrared center. Dolly is also
moving over a warm Gulf eddy. Given these changes...strengthening
should begin very soon. The upper-level flow is not yet ideal for
development...with the anticyclone located to the east of
Dolly...but the global models forecast these features to become
better connected just before landfall. On the other hand...Dolly
is expected to encounter a cold eddy in about 18-24 hours...when
the forward speed is expected to be quite a bit slower than it is
now...and this encounter could provide a damper on the
intensification rate in the last hours prior to landfall. The
bottom line of all this is that Dolly very likely will become a
hurricane...but the odds are against it becoming a major hurricane.
The initial motion is 280/15. The guidance models from yesterday
did a nice job in forecasting the increase in speed today...and are
in excellent agreement that the forward motion will slow
significantly tomorrow as the upper low to the south of Dolly
weakens along with the upper-level easterlies. The mid-level ridge
over East Texas is forecast to erode slightly as a pair of
mid-latitude short waves move through the Great Lakes. This is
expected to cause a Bend of the track to the right over the next
24-36 hours. Model guidance is fairly tightly clustered and the
official forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope...with
the GFS to the south and the GFDL to the north.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/0300z 23.1n 92.8w 45 kt
12hr VT 22/1200z 23.9n 94.4w 55 kt
24hr VT 23/0000z 24.8n 95.8w 65 kt
36hr VT 23/1200z 25.6n 96.9w 75 kt
48hr VT 24/0000z 26.2n 98.0w 50 kt...inland
72hr VT 25/0000z 26.5n 101.5w 25 kt...remnant low
96hr VT 26/0000z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Franklin
Atlantic Floater 2
Dolly
Visible Image - Loop
Shows an eye,,,next update,,,no eye,,,(winkie,winkie)...;0)
Shifting south it seems...
CC weather is saying Brownsville.
Rain up this way is estimated to be 2-10”.
Good solid forecast there.
CC weather is saying Brownsville.
~~~
The last I saw on WU is about the same,,,CAT-1,,,
Not sure really, just a hunch.
Looks like Dolly is turning more to the South,,,last update:
Atlantic Floater 2
Dolly
Visible Image - Loop
Infrared Image - Loop
Shortwave IR Image - Loop
Dvorak IR Image - Loop
Water Vapor Image - Loop
Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on July 22, 2008
...Dolly strengthens a little...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from
Brownsville to Port O’Connor. A Hurricane Warning is also in
effect for the northeast coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando
northward to the border between Mexico and the United States.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Port O’Connor to
San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect from La
Pesca to south of Rio San Fernando. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 400 am CDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 23.3 north...longitude 93.8 west or about 295
miles...475 km...southeast of Brownsville Texas.
Dolly is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr. A turn to
the west-northwest is expected later today with a further decrease
in forward speed...followed by a turn to the northwest on
Wednesday. On this track...the center of Dolly should be very near
the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast...and Dolly is expected
to become a hurricane prior to landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km
from the center.
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...over much of south
Texas and northeastern Mexico over the next few days. Dolly is
expected to produce additional amounts of 1 to 3 inches over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Repeating the 400 am CDT position...23.3 N...93.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...997 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 700 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
am CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Movement toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...60 mph. Minimum central pressure...997 mb...about
295 miles SE of Brownsville, TX. A turn to the west-northwest
is expected later today with a further decrease in forward
speed...followed by a turn to the northwest on Wednesday.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 22, 2008
An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter plane reported that the
central pressure dropped a little...to 997 mb. The SFMR on board
the aircraft reported winds near 60 kt in the southeast quadrant
but these readings were in areas of heavy precipitation which
probably caused spikes in the velocity values. Assuming that these
were overestimates but taking into account the slightly lower
pressure the current intensity is estimated to be slightly
higher...50 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that the tropical
cyclone is still in the organizing stage with some banding features
over the western semicircle. There is a pronounced upper-level
outflow channel emanating from the northwestern part of the
circulation that extends anticyclonically around the eastern side
of Dolly and pouring southward into the western Caribbean...however
outflow is being inhibited over the southern part of the storm by
an upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche. Dynamical guidance
indicates a more symmetric outflow pattern evolving over the next
day or so. Recent enhanced IR imagery shows an increase in
convection near/over the center which suggests that further
strengthening is imminent. The official intensity forecast is very
similar to the previous one and is above the SHIPS guidance...but
not far from the GFDL/HWRF predictions. It should be noted that
once Dolly establishes an inner core...I.E. An eyewall-like
structure...the rate of intensification could be fairly rapid in
comparison to what we have observed thus far. However...it seems
unlikely that Dolly would become a major hurricane prior to
landfall.
Fixes from the aircraft show that the motion has been only slightly
north of due west at a slightly slower forward speed...or 280/13.
The track forecast reasoning is basically unchanged. A couple of
short wave troughs moving through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
region are forecast to erode slightly the portion of the
mid-tropospheric ridge over eastern Texas. As a result...the track
of Dolly is likely to Bend toward the northwest with additional
deceleration over the next day or so. The latest NHC track
forecast is near or slightly north of the model consensus...and a
little south of the latest GFDL/HWRF tracks. Again it should be
emphasized that...due to the inherent uncertainties...one must not
focus on the exact landfall point in this forecast.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/0900z 23.3n 93.8w 50 kt
12hr VT 22/1800z 24.1n 95.1w 55 kt
24hr VT 23/0600z 25.0n 96.5w 65 kt
36hr VT 23/1800z 25.7n 97.5w 75 kt...inland
48hr VT 24/0600z 26.0n 99.0w 45 kt...inland
72hr VT 25/0600z 26.0n 102.0w 20 kt...remnant low
96hr VT 26/0600z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Pasch
Thanx for the ping.
I’m not sweating this one but the one coming off the African coast mandates I pay attention.
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