I agree with your logic!
Thus:
http://www.southernledger.com/blogs/stevegill/?m=200806
The demand for oil by China alone is growing faster than any amount of increased efficiency in automobile fuel efficiency or car-pooling can possibly counter balance. It is that demand, combined with our own self-imposed restrictions on supply, that is the real source of our pain at the pump.
China’s consumption of oil reached a record high and rose an incredible 17% in the first quarter of 2008 alone, according to the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association. A Chinese government think tank has estimated that China’s oil consumption will increase by 62% over the next decade! The actual figure may be double that number. Yet, if Chinese consumption grows by just 62% China would be using at least 12 million barrels of oil a day by 2020 compared to the 20 million barrels currently consumed each day by the U.S.
As China continues to industrialize they are preparing for the demands of an increasingly consumer driven, and automobile driven, nation. In fact, they are in the process of building 42,000 miles of new interstate highways over the next twenty years. To put that in perspective, the entire United States has about 86,000 miles of interstate at the present time. India has plans to construct another 25,000 miles of expressways themselves. Presumably, cars fueled by gasoline are going to drive up and down all those thousands of miles of new highways.
That’s a pretty good assumption since Chinese car sales rose nearly 18% during the first quarter of 20008 alone! The China Association of Auto Manufacturers reported sales of 2.46 million cars during the first four months of this year. China is the second largest car market in the world, and expects to put 10 million new cars on the road in 2008. New cars sold in the U.S. in 2008 are expected to be in the range of 14 to 15 million. With over a billion consumers, China will quickly surpass the U.S. as the number one car market in the world. Could that possible fuel even more demand for gasoline in the years to come?
The bottom line for U.S. consumers is that while restricted supplies of oil have caused the current price spike that is causing so much summer discontent, the long-term economic prognosis is even worse. As the increased demands for oil from China, India and other developing nations kick into high gear the only way to battle back against even higher prices will be alternative fuels AND full access to the oil reserves available to us. That isn’t a matter of blame; it is just a matter of basic economics.