sigh....
Posted on 12/02/2007 1:08:47 PM PST by diamond6
In the 10 years of the BCS era, we've seen pretty much everything.
Perhaps the only major development we've yet to see is a two-loss team in the BCS Championship Game. Later today, that one should become a reality.
The million-dollar question is: Which two-loss team will it be?
Jim Tressel has watched as other teams have helped Ohio State's title cause.
At least seven teams, including once-beaten Ohio State and Kansas, are likely to receive second-place votes in the polls. If the voters rank teams based on perceived strength (who would win on a neutral field), any number of championship game possibilities exist. But what if they vote on merit?
The Contenders It's always difficult to make assumptions when it comes to the BCS, but it would be shocking if Ohio State (11-1) didn't finish in the top two, and it would be fairly surprising if the Buckeyes weren't ranked No. 1. Here's a look at the teams in contention to face (presumably) OSU for all the marbles.
Immediately behind Ohio State in the current BCS standings are Georgia and Kansas, which failed to win their respective divisions in conference play. Some people might think this is no big deal because two teams in the BCS era have played for the national title without winning their conference championship. It should be pointed out, however, that neither of those teams -- Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 -- was ranked in the top two of the polls at the end of the regular season, so neither would have played for the title under the current BCS formula.
Georgia (10-2) is at a further disadvantage because it plays in the SEC, which was won by LSU (11-2), and the Bulldogs don't have a head-to-head win over the Tigers to strengthen Dawgs' case against the big cats.
Kansas (11-1) will get consideration for being the only major-conference team other than Ohio State with fewer than two losses, but the Jayhawks don't have a single victory over a team that's even receiving votes in the AP poll.
Virginia Tech (11-2) at least has a conference championship on its résumé, but the Hokies also have a 41-point loss to LSU that's hard for voters to ignore. And the Tigers' two losses, for whatever it's worth, did come in triple overtime.
USC (10-2) won the Pac-10, but as fate would have it, the Trojans ended up with just two wins over teams with a winning record (Arizona State and Oregon State). Even if that doesn't hurt them in the polls, it certainly will hold them back in the computers in relation to the other two-loss teams.
Then there's Big 12 champion Oklahoma (11-2), which should make a late surge after a convincing win over No. 1 Missouri (a squad OU topped for the second time this season). But will it be enough to help the Sooners climb all the way from No. 9 into the BCS top two?
Based on the current standings and what each team accomplished this season, I expect it to be Ohio State vs. LSU in the Allstate BCS Championship Game on Jan. 7 in New Orleans.
But that's based simply on logic, which left this 2007 season many, many weeks ago.
Projecting the BCS Projecting the BCS matchups is as difficult as ever, thanks in large part to the uncertainty over which teams will be playing in the championship game. Using my prediction of Ohio State vs. LSU as a starting point, here's how I expect the rest of the BCS bowls to be filled. If any team other than LSU is playing the Buckeyes, you can throw all of this out the window.
Let's start with the natural tie-ins. Big 12 champion Oklahoma goes to the Fiesta Bowl, Pac-10 winner USC goes to the Rose Bowl, and ACC champ Virginia Tech goes to the Orange Bowl.
Assuming Ohio State is ranked No. 1, the first pick belongs to the Rose, which must replace the Buckeyes. Illinois, which will become eligible for an at-large spot by moving into the BCS top 14, is the logical pick to preserve the game's Big Ten vs. Pac-10 tradition.
If LSU is ranked No. 2, the Sugar chooses next, and Georgia makes the most sense to fill the spot vacated by the SEC champion.
The next pick goes to the Orange Bowl, and this is where things get tricky. On the surface, West Virginia looks like the choice, but because of the deflating nature of WVU's season-ending loss, I can see the Orange going with Kansas. As an old Big Eight school, KU even has a traditional connection to that game.
If Kansas is taken by the Orange, the only teams available to the Fiesta would be West Virginia and Hawaii. In this case, the Fiesta would select WVU, which would leave Hawaii for the Sugar.
Allstate BCS National Championship Game Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs. LSU (SEC champ)
The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi USC (Pac-10 champ) vs. Illinois (at-large)
Allstate Sugar Bowl Georgia (at-large) vs. Hawaii (at-large)
FedEx Orange Bowl Virginia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Kansas (at-large)
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)
Funny - nobody at ABC/ESPN/Disney had a bad word to say about the BCS when they were carrying the games.
Now that Fox owns the rights suddenly A/E/D have discovered that the BCS is bad thing.
Amazing coincidence.
I'm an LSU alum and have been watching LSU football for 50 years...to say the least I am a big fan.
I am thrilled that LSU gets to play for the perinnial "mythical" championship.
Having said all that, I think your point is among the best made...the part about "deserving". I don't believe any team "deserves" to be designated as one of only two qualified to be the Champs.
Getting rid of the BCS, there could easily be 4 #1 teams after the Bowls, the AP champ, the ESPN/USA Today champ, the Harris Interative champ and assuming you count the conglomeration of computer geeks as one; the the Computer champs.
How absurd...
Georgia did beat Vanderbilt by 3 and got by Troy by 10, so I guess they are great.
Oh, well.
Looks like I called it; the new BCS rankings are out, and OSU v. LSU is the national title game.
I want a playoff system too, but I’m happy with this matchup.
No. Unfortunately, the BCS has a rule that prohibited the Rose Bowl from selecting Georgia. Here's the rule:
C. When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same Conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents.Since the Rose lost Ohio State and the Sugar lost LSU, the Rose was not allowed to pick an SEC team unless the Sugar Bowl consented and they did not.
The rule was the result of the complaints of the Rose Bowl when they could not select Iowa in 2003 and were stuck with Oklahoma because the Orange Bowl picked Iowa to play USC.
Where is ASU? They pummelled Colorado earlier this year by three touchdowns, and Colorado was good enough to beat Oklahoma. ASU has two losses, a close one at Oregon when Oregon was #2 and Dixon was still healthy, and one to USC when USC just clicked on Thanksgiving. And ASU gets left out while some crap team like Illinois goes to the Rose Bowl? Georgia should have come to the Rose Bowl, like everyone wanted, West Virginia should have played Hawaii and ASU should have been in the Fiesta. What a bad year for college football.
The Southeastern Conference had 263 players on the 2007 National Football League opening day active rosters, which led all conferences. The Atlantic Coast Conference was second with 238 players, followed by the Big Ten with 234 players, Pac-10 with 183 players, Big 12 with 176 players and the Big East with 84 players.
USC is clearly the class of the PAC-10. But if you stack conference against conference, the the SEC is clearly the top conference from top to bottom.
Is there any way we can rig the BCS roulette wheel to make sure that both LSU and Ohio State lose the title game?
Exactly. Imagine...
“But if you stack conference against conference, the the SEC is clearly the top conference from top to bottom.”
That may be true, but that doesn’t mean they have the best team. :-)
It is why they play the game. GA will destroy Hawaii.
It isn’t like Auburn in ‘02 and ‘03 (9-4) and (8-5) respectively or Arkansas in ‘06 (10-4) weren’t the upper echelon of the SEC. I mean, come on, the games with USC weren’t even close!
Would you like me to compare the SC scores with the scores Auburn and Arkansas had with LSU, Florida, and Georgia those years? Are you really that much of a glutton for punishment?
USC is head and shoulders over the rest of the PAC 10 dwarfs. Notre Dame beat UCLA and Stanford this year, but lost to Navy and Air Force.
The SEC in-conference schedule is so tough, it doesn't need a tough out of conference schedule. And the SEC plays a championship game and the PAC-10 doesn't. Look at which conference has the most players who play on Sunday.
USC has had a major resurgence under Pete Carroll. Comparing the strength of the two conferences using USC isn't a fair measure. Also, there are not that many cupcakes in the SEC, which means that each game has a cummulative effect on the teams. Since the BCS national championship started in 1999, Tennessee, LSU, and Florida have been national champions. Once an SEC team gets to the championship game, it wins.
“USC has had a major resurgence under Pete Carroll. Comparing the strength of the two conferences using USC isn’t a fair measure.”
Ha, ha, ha.
Didn’t think so.
Oh, no, Hawaii couldn't ever beat LSU, the know-it-alls would say if asked. But they also would have said Pittsburgh couldn't ever beat West Virginia, Stanford couldn't ever beat USC, and Appalachian State couldn't ever in a million years beat mighty Michigan in Ann Arbor in front of 100,000 screaming fans there to see an easy victory. What about the fact that Boise State DID defeat Oklahoma in last year's Fiesta Bowl, one of the most thrilling games in NCAA history? Fuhgettaboutit. And once again, we have an SEC team and a Big Eleven Ten team in the alleged Championship game. What a surprise.
Let's be honest: If your favorite team or alma mater is not in the SEC, Big Eleven Ten, Pac-10, Big 12, Big East or ACC conferences (or Notre Dame), it is playing just for fun. It has NO CHANCE at a national championship. You schools from the WAC, Mountain West, Big West, MAC, Sun Belt, etc: Thanks for showing up. Here are your lovely parting gifts: Bowl games that most people won't attend, watch, or notice.
If I won a million dollars tomorrow, one of the things I would do is take off a couple of months and write a book exposing the college football elite conferences' selfish, illogical, and counterproductive grip on the game and the NCAA's hypocritical refusal to change. There is NO REASON why an NCAA football playoff can't happen, and tradition is a sorriass excuse for letting the inequity continue, especially since MORE money would be made if there was a legit playoff.
The BCS is inherently unfair and jury-rigged to favor the football factory conferences. You're probably a devotee of one of the schools that actually has a shot.
FBS indeed.
Ah, Michigan Wolverines vs. The Mighty Gators! Already have my tix. I would have been a little nervous with Miami as the second game in the season, normally. What a schedule for next season though. Presumably, the Noles will get just a little better, but not much. I added the SEC champ game to the schedule. I'll standby now for someone to say "you're playing The Citadel? Your schedule is weak!"
8/30 Hawaii Home
9/6 Miami Home
9/20 at Tennessee Knoxville
9/27 Ole Miss Home
10/4 at Arkansas Fayetteville
10/11 LSU Home
10/25 Kentucky (HC) Home
11/1 Georgia Jacksonville
11/8 at Vanderbilt Nashville
11/15 South Carolina Home
11/22 Citadel Home
11/29 at Florida State Tallahassee
Dec. SEC Championship
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