Posted on 11/20/2007 5:48:19 PM PST by scott says
PHILADELPHIA -- Just three seasons after being separated by just three points in Super Bowl XXXIX, the gap between the Patriots and Eagles has widened to historic proportions: Philly is a 23½-point underdog.
That is the largest point spread for an NFL game that does not involve an expansion team, according to odds-making experts in Las Vegas.
On Dec. 5, 1976, the expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 24-point underdogs to the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers covered easily, winning 42-0.
"Nowadays, you don't see too many spreads over 16 or 17 points," said Sean Van Patten, an oddsmaker at Sports Consultants in Las Vegas. "That's because most teams take their starters out in the fourth quarter of a lopsided game. The Patriots don't. I call this phenomenon The [Bill] Belichick Factor."
By continuing to pour it on the fourth quarter, Belichick is throwing Vegas out of whack. And making bookies run for cover.
It all started Sunday night after Belichick walked across the field at Ralph Wilson Stadium to shake hands with Buffalo Bills head coach Dick Jauron, an awkward moment captured on national TV after the Patriots annihilated the Bills 56-10.
"The line for the Patriots-Eagles game was immediately set at 17 points -- and the big bettors, the sports syndicate guys, jumped on it, bet it hard," said Brandon Lang, whose life was depicted by Matthew McConaughey in the movie "Two for the Money" and is regarded as the nation's leading sports handicapper.
According to bookies and oddsmakers, all the big money took the Patriots and gave the points. Why? Because Belichick has been running up the score.
"So the spread jumped all the way to 22 in a matter of minutes," said Lang.
"You add the fact that Donovan McNabb is injured and you have the perfect storm," said a bookie in South Philadelphia who asked not to be identified.
McNabb has a swollen thumb on his right (throwing) hand and a sprained ankle. He did not finish the game on Sunday, when the Eagles beat the Miami Dolphins in Philadelphia. On Monday, head coach Andy Reid said his franchise quarterback is day-to-day.
"McNabb is worth four more points, in my opinion," said Van Patten. "Which means if he doesn't play Sunday, the spread in this game could set the record."
If the record is not set in this game, Van Patten said, don't be surprised if it is threatened in two of the Patriots' upcoming games -- against the New York Jets on Dec. 16 or the Dolphins on Dec. 23.
"The Jets game is the one to watch," said Van Patten. "The perception, at least, is that Belichick is running up the score because he's angry over Spygate. And he was caught by the Jets back in the first week of the season. It's gonna be payback time."
***
(nuff said)
The point spread is not an indicator of respect or a predictor of outcome. Instead, it's a device aimed at generating equal betting on both teams. So the spread keeps going up until the action on the favorite equals the action on the underdog.
On second thought, maybe the spread for the Fins-Pats game will be more than 40.
I knew I’d get reactions. If I’m right, I’ll get a lot of the “Wow, whoda thunk” posts when it happens. If I’m wrong, I’ll just avoid FR for a month.:)
I watched the Patriots-Bills game on Sunday. I don’t think Belichick is necessarily running up the score; I think he is just trying to keep his offense sharp. He wants them to play well from the first possession, until he takes out some of his starters.
That makes perfect sense to me. If they start coasting on offense just to avoid embarassing the weak teams, they might lose their edge, and might not be able to score when they need to against good teams.
They beat the Colts a few weeks ago because of the way their whole team played for 10 minutes in the 4th quarter.
NY Jets at New England (-40 1/2)
You mean John Beck? He looks good. Has some rookie jitters, but he does things you don't expect out of a rookie. Example: sometime in the second half, Beck called for a no-huddle offense before the Eagles were set defensively, forcing them to burn a timeout. He zings the ball well (Jay Cutler who?), he looks off the safeties, and based on player interviews, the entire team already admires him.
I'm not expecting a win in our teams' rematch, but be wary for the next couple of years: Beck is catching on quick.
Oh, and Ted Ginn is quickly becoming a true threat. He's not going to be Marvin Harrison, but he can be 2005 Steve Smith.
As if they need to be kept sharp in the 4th quarter.
Belichick needs to worry about his kicker doing nothing the whole game. Memo to Bill: you WILL need to rely on Mr. Gostkowski at some point. I suggest you stop going for it on 4th downs and let him take a few shots at the uprights.
When is the latest in a season that an unbeaten team has played a winless team?
Oh, I see now.
I was just SURE he meant McNabb was worth four points to the OTHER team, not the Eagles........
Dallas should be concerned about the NY Jets because Dallas hasn’t beaten an AFC on Thanksgiving since 1999.
I am going to call for an investigation if the NE-NY Giants game has playoff implicatons for the NY Giants and New England decides to rest its starters.
McNabb is a human turnover machine.
The field is covered, the wind is whipping at 20 knts, becoming white out conditions. Bellicheck calls time out, trying to ice the Giant's Tynes.
Just as time is called, a convict on a snow plow comes out of the East end zone (they say Hoffa is buried there), darts out to the NE 35, and clears a path in the snow. As the 30 second time out ends, the winds go calm, the teams line up, the snap, the kick...
As Bob Griese passes the champaign to Larry Czonka the party continues...
5.56mm
Somebody just woke up from a three year coma and hasn't checked out a sports page yet.
If McNabb starts, bet the house on the Pats covering the spread... in each half.
That is truly poetic.
I’d prefer the Pats to lose before then, though.
Hey...who’da thunk people would spend their time on FR engaging in “NFL fantasy” porn?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.