/semi off topic.
That means 1/4 of the markets will be stable, or gain.
Our property gained 25% during 2005 alone. Why should I care about a 10% loss?
I recently sold my house & am renting until this whole thing shakes out.
Maybe I’m looking at this whole thing wrong. But for what it’s worth.......last time we had our home appraised, it came in at $550,000. We payed $215,000 for it seven years ago. If the value dropped 10%, that’s only $55,000. It’s still worth a lot more than we payed for it. I’m not that worried about it. Now, if we just bought it at $550,000 and it dropped $55,000, I might be worried. But.....it will come up eventually.........always does. The key is, did I do responsible financing?
And since people keep flooding into the Phoenix area, I'm sure we're solid for the long haul.
Bunk. It’s already been happening with declines of 10-15%. We are not going to see housing drop 30%.
Well, this isn’t all bad. I’m sure that my county tax assessment will drop as well. I mean, I was able to get them to drop my new home’s assesed value down to the purchase price- (rather than the 120% of purchase price they tried to assess it as “Market Value” just sixty days after the purchase ) so they’ll probably just keep dropping their “Market Value” tax assessments to keep up with the trend. /end sarcasm
later read
All that misery sure sets your mouth watering.
There is an incredible demographic bubble and a lot of folks are going to be heading to assisted living homes, smaller homes, and homes with greater accessibility (i.e. not two story, no stairs, wide doors, etc. That should mean that large 4+ bedroom two-story homes will be coming on the market in record numbers, probably in excess of supply.
Therefore, I fully anticipate a supply demand imbalance in such that high-end housing prices will drop. In the longer term as the baby boomers die off, either their kids will be getting inherited money and investing in bigger homes or the hospitals, doctors and nursing homes will clean out the estates near the end of life.
The opposite thought that I have is that there are lots of forces at work right now that all seem to be increasing the price of a home that do not appear to be stoppable! For example in the new National Electric Code 2008 version there are electrical code changes that will add substantially to the cost of a new home (tamper proof receptacles, AFCI outlets, etc.).
In a like manner most utilities are charging ever increasing hook up fees for new construction associated with water, roads, sewage, electrical, and other connections.
Finally, the whole "green" thing as is seen in LEED's and Green Building Council requirements is raising the costs of housing and commercial real-estate. That and the regulatory cost of permitting new housing developments will tend to raise the "cost" of a new home, so much of this will also raise the "value" of an existing home to a "typical consumer."
And where did this bit of wisdom come from?
Moody's Economy pulled it right out of their ass, just like all the other predictors of the future do.
BigMack