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Locked on 08/19/2007 5:43:08 AM PDT by Lead Moderator, reason:
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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
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Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Just doesn't seem fair does it?! lol
Agree, none of the models predicted a turn north, all bet are off. this thing could go anywhere.
Living in Florida for 30 plus years has been reasonably calm believe it or not...
..We have had few troubles with hurricanes on our side of the peninsula....
..until that slew 3 years ago.
The devastation it brought the south end of the county was heartbreaking...
..two friends lost their roofs!!!!
..a church steeple was torn off and flung point down into the roof of the church....
...Power off, lines down, houses smashed in, Salvation Army trucks all over giving water, tarps for the roofs, etc.
...people in our neighborhood who rode it out got very scared, and said they wouldn't do it again.
Our daughter was pregnant with our first grandchild...
..so we evacuated twice, taking them with us....
If this is the monster storm they're predicting at the moment, it will be awful.
I agree. It’s turning northward. I’ve lived through 4 of these storms. The initial models and the models used by the news weren’t even close to the final outcomes.
The GFDL model ran yesterday placed the hurricane squarely in New Orleans.
lol, I think she mentioned they got a great deal :^)
Looks like we may just get real wet.
Daughter number 2 visiting family on the lovely island of Hispanola (currently in Punta Cana and headed for Jacmel). Should be an interesting visit.
And now the current GFDL run (2 am EDT this morning) has it hitting in southern Texas.
Just as a reminder, up to 15 degrees off of true west is still considered west.
I’m on galveston bay in texas. I will be keeping a close eye on Dean. Seems all (most) of the gulf moisture has come in our area this year, rain rain rain, 4 months of rain. Hope Dean doesn’t continue the pattern.
The next one inline is down so all bets are off there. :(
..we decided to get a motorhome & keep our emergency supplies handy, and it will sleep my husband & I ..PLUS... our daughter,son in law and granddaughter AND the dog.
It just made sense....
..of course it's always iffy trying to decide which direction to 'run' when hurricanes are so unpredictable.
Everything I’ve seen has it going to mexico, which is fine with me. A mid/upper Texas coast hit would be very bad. South Texas coast is higher, folks there can handle a big hurricane, freeport/galveston/houston can’t.
Our local news in Houston said last night that Carnival had cancelled several of its cruises, but they didn’t go into any detail on which ones or where.
I believe she said Norwegian Cruise Lines.
That’s the exact same spot they predicted landfall on the last one. Center actually came in a tad north of us. That’s great with a TS, not so with a cat 4.
For those wondering about motion - I pulled up the previous vortex data message at 1 am EDT. Motion between then and 7:51 am EDT was about 289 degrees at 14 3/4 mph. That puts it in line to hit Jamaica head-on as predicted. Will update with the fresh VDM shortly.
NHC uses a longer view (probably over the previous 12 hours).
Seriously, good luck this season, I will be praying for all of you. tioga/son spent a hurricane in Key West and is home for good after that.
So is my sister. She and her family live in League City. Grew up in Spring and remember crabbing at Kemah(sp?)... doesn't look the same today! lol
I live on the Eastern Shore of Mobile Bay now and my mom is 1 block off the beach in Gulf Shores. Hurricanes are a family thing. lol
Good luck!
That reminded me of the last time we went fishing offshore. Clearing the channel into the Gulf, the Captain said we would run out for about three hours. Several of us looked at each other and said “Oh great, a three hour cruise”.
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