IIRC, That’s the same place Opal spawned in ‘95, and wound up here in Ft. Walton Beach.......
You certainly never know for sure with these storms. However, the ridge over the southern plains is too strong. Mid to southern Texas is most likely. Following right behind that upper level low. No way this one comes to Florida, unless it stalls somehow for three or four days. TD4 in the Atlantic could be the threat to Florida.