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To: ancient_geezer

LOL...

I had a strong suspicion that cogitator's civilians who were criticizing the example were a bit less reliable than the researchers and reviewers. When I looked at the data and graph, I didn't see anything wrong with them at first blush.

Thanks for your quick refutation.


12 posted on 03/21/2007 8:06:10 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: AFPhys
From the paper regarding the principle being demonstrated by the graphic:
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/globaltemp/globaltemp.html

"The global temperature statistic is also described as the average, as if there is only one kind of average. Of course there is an infinity of mathematically legitimate options. Indeed over one hundred different averages over temperatures have been used in meteorology and climate studies [7] with more appearing regularly. For the case of temperature, or any other thermodynamic intensity, there is no physical basis for choosing any one of these from the infinite domain of distinct mathematical options. The international standards organization ISO tried to choose one but failed [8]. The problem is not a mere absence of a convention for selecting one from among many mathematically different but physically-equivalent measures for a single underlying property. The problem is that there is no single underlying property, because there is no global temperature. But this does not stop averages from being made.

There is no experimental or theoretical way to falsify any particular choice of averaging rule, if averages are (falsely) proclaimed to be temperatures. Proclaiming them to be temperatures leads to a paradox, as any two ad hoc choices applied to a particular outof- equilibrium field can have mutually contradictory behaviors: the system can seem to be both warming and cooling simultaneously. Paradoxically, whether the system is “warming” or “cooling” becomes a property of the choice of average — a choice which is independent of the system.

The resolution of this paradox is not through adoption of a convention. It is resolved by recognizing that it is an abuse of terminology to use the terms “warming” and “cooling” to denote upward or downward trends in averages of temperature data in such circumstances. Statistics might go up or down, but the system itself cannot be said to be warming or cooling based on what they do, outside of special circumstances."

"[7] Peterson T. C., Vose R. S., An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Temperature Database, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78 (12) December 1997, 2837–2849.

[8] Boehmer K., ISO and climate change: Delivering on the promise, ISO Bulletin, August 2002, http://www.iso.org/iso/en/commcentre/isobulletin/comment/2002/August2002.html "

 

The example more amply and accurately demonstrates the problem of why ISO could not set a standard to represent global climate change that would be accurate or statistically meaningful in a dynamic system such as that of earth's climate.

13 posted on 03/22/2007 7:46:40 AM PDT by ancient_geezer (Don't reform it, Replace it.)
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To: AFPhys
What happens when using the results of arbitrary averaging methodologies as temperature proxies which, by their nature, are not falsifiable:

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1150

Next here is a comparison of the USHCN 2000 version (digital data downloaded from John Daly, but matched to figure in contemporary press release) to CRU. The CRU comes as monthly data - I made an annual average and then zero-ed on 1951-1980 to match GISS 1951-1980 centering. (In passing, CRU is supposed to have 1961-1990 centering, but I couldn’t replicate this at all!) The blue histogram shows the difference between HadCRU3 and GISS 2000. The maximum negative delta in the 1930s is -0.35 deg C and the maximum positive delta is 0.28 deg C. In HadCRU3, the record year remains 1934.

uhcnh9.gif

So as between CRU and Hansen’s crowd, it looks like Hansen’s crowd is adjusting things more. It would be nice to see what CRU is doing differently. But hey, they’re the Team and I guess we’ll never know.

When "there is no physical basis for choosing any one of these from the infinite domain of distinct mathematical options." Everything is fair game and grist to feed the propaganda mill.

14 posted on 03/22/2007 8:18:00 AM PDT by ancient_geezer (Don't reform it, Replace it.)
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