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Hi G_W,

Interesting piece. FWIW, my 2 cents.

China and India were like 50%+ of world GDP upto the 1800s and had been so for centuries. The industrial revolution changed that for a time. Is it reasonable to believe that this ‘anomaly’ in wealth creation+distribution given population and resource distributions worldwide would be permanent?

Secondly, before grudging Chindia, consider that their combined economic output even now, after a decade of assiduous offshoring, tech transfers etc is still in the low single digits as a percentage of world GDP. They are projected to overtake the OECD decades later. The OECD could manouvre to slwo them down, create rifts and turbulence, grind them to a halt and IMO, the OECD retains such an option to exercise later at an ‘appropriate’ time, perhaps. A sudden banking system collapse in China or the volcano of the HIV crisis in India suddenly erupting is actually more a matter of focusing press attention at the right parts of the Chinadia edifice than of anything else.

Thirdly, is it reasonable to believe that a McKinset would sellout for whatever peanuts some impoverished indian state could hand out? The downside is that iof McK activities are exposed, what happens to their 98% or some such number of business that resides even today in the OECD?

Fourthly, how does our wealth transfer to the mideast for its oil comapre to that to India? China i actually pumping wealth back into the US by buying US bonds in return for tangible physical goods.

Things to ponder and think about. Whatever the outcome, I wouldn’t grudge India’s rise. A billion aspirations cannot be forever kept pinned down. They’re only now discovering the joys of capitalism and entreprenuership. I wish them well. China’s rise I would be a tad more suspicious about, though.

JMTs. Have a nice day.