How will Apple react to Vista?

A big week for Microsoft is winding down - the company's first new operating system in five years has made its debut without major hiccups. It was a launch as typical as it can get for Microsoft and very different than one of those Apple product announcements. Get the background launch story and how Apple's Vista reaction could look like.

You have to admit the PC guy probably does more positive for Microsoft's image than anything Microsoft has done for the PC in a long time. But Microsoft has brought out Vista, the first really new operating system since Apple launched OS X and that means things should get rather heated going forward.

As promised we'll take a look at the Vista launch and compare it to an Apple event and then we'll chat about the rumored response Apple is supposedly cooking up to spoil Microsoft's party. Oh, and yes, we'll chat a bit about Vista someplace in the middle.

I was talking to another analyst about this and he probably said it correctly. When Apple does a launch event Steve Jobs takes special interest and personally has a great deal to do with the staging, something he is incredibly good at. For Microsoft, they contract it out and you often wonder if the folks that designed the event either understood or cared about what it was they were launching. Microsoft's events tend to be parties bracketed by stunts designed to make people remember the name so surveys testing name recognition show improvement.

Apple, on the other hand, does events designed to sell products and the most recent example was their launch of the iPhone which virtually overwhelmed everything at CES and caused Apple's stock price to spike. This is a good example of doing an event that has a clear purpose and goal to sell product vs. doing one where the goal is visibility.

Now it may actually be kind of smart to do this with a Microsoft OS launch. The biggest problems with upgrades and migrations to a new OS occur in the first three months and things get vastly better after that as fixes are created for OS and application migration issues and more and more people are embraced by these fixes. If you realize that something like a billion PCs run some version of Windows, then, say even a 10% initial migration would be 100 million folks or 2.5 times Apple's estimated entire installed base of Macs. If only 1% of those folks had problems, and typically it will be much more than this, you would have 1 million people in dire need of help and there is no support organization or combination on the planet that could handle that kind of load over a short period of time.

This initial sales spike for Windows 95 nearly shut down Microsoft support and partially resulted in sales that were estimated to be only 50% of potential over the first year. This would suggest a softer launch would be better for a stronger first year sales ramp.

If Vista eases into the market, then the techies get it first and they, by nature, become part of the virtual support organization that updates to both Vista and the applications that run on it. In effect, the percentage of problems drops and the support capability of the market improves resulting in a sharp decrease of really upset people who can't get this product to work.

This could, and to be honest should, result in a more linear ramp for the product and a better overall experience for everyone involved. We'll try to revisit this at year end and discuss how it went.

Typically there are a couple of rules to moving to a new major OS release. The first is the migration gets much better, as I've noted, after the first three months because more of the third party applications have both migrated and been patched and because the drivers are more mature (both more reliable and better tuned).

The best experience will always be on new hardware and, if you bought a new PC last quarter, you probably already paid for a copy of Vista. This copy should come from the OEM designed specifically for the machine you purchased. Some will have them right away while others may take a few weeks to get it right. Trust me when I say it is better you get this right than get it early.

When you migrate, try the built-in Vista migration tool coupled with a migration cable. The Belkin Data Migration Cable for Windows Vista which costs under $50 seems to work fastest but you can also do the migration over your home network.

If you want to see just how much can be done automatically, the PCMover Application from Laplink actually moves many of the applications, you can get the download version for $50 and it should save you a lot of time. You will probably still need to upgrade these applications to their newest versions but this is arguably the simplest way to move to a new PC running Vista.

Is it worth it? That depends on you, I do identify with the PC guy in Apple's ads and it sure was worth it for me. But there is no need to rush, it isn't going anyplace. Some of us just like to get places first.

With every major upgrade, there is a significant opportunity for a competitor to come in and steal market share and this one is no exception. At the Vista launch, there were folks chatting about Apple's supposed planned response to Vista and it could actually work.

If what they said is to be believed, Apple will come out in force when the most breakage is likely to occur and will roll against Vista with a campaign that targets this breakage and promises to give more benefit than Vista does without all of the pain.

Based on some informal sampling, if Apple was able to execute on such a campaign it could increase their market share by two points this year taking them to 6% of the market or nearly half again what they currently have.

Now because this is the slowest time of year for PC purchases in general that 2% may be conservative but the overall numbers sold won't be as impressive because they will be a fraction of what could have been sold had this occurred in the fourth quarter. Still, you play the cards you are dealt.

While I was thinking that the Super Bowl ad Apple is funding might kick this off, other industry observers who are likely better connected to Apple indicate that this will be a launch of the iPod based on the iPhone design instead. While I don't like the iPhone for a lot of reasons, an iPod based on that design could, if done correctly, get even me into the store wanting one. This is because most of the things that make the iPhone a bad phone simply don't apply to a device that doesn't need to be a phone in the first place.

Of course, if Apple does this after saying nothing about PCs during Steve's MacWorld address its going to cause folks to once again wonder if Apple is exiting the PC business. The other rumor was that Apple was going to license out their OS, that's been around for awhile and I still doubt that Steve would do that, but given the iPhone is actually a kind of a newer version of the Newton and we know Steve would never do that, maybe someone has upgraded his brain while he wasn't watching.

We'll see, regardless it may make the Super Bowl required watching for those of us that are more into tech than sports. I'm guessing even the PC guy from Apple's ads will be watching this game for that very reason.

Uh, All-Mighty? Quarter to quarter shipment changess are not that significant.

True, I agree but since the name AppleInsider appears to be a 'Apple central' info source U would think the reporter would point that out if it was germane to the analysis.

Additionally, the 2.4% Internal number seems to indicate that not much has changed over the last several years or so since another googled site I found talks about Worldwide ~2.8% sales in 2005.

Given that 2.8 number I would think 2006 International amount should be in that area also or even higher if what U are claiming is correct. However, I don't see that trend & that's why I questioned UR assertion.

I also read on other sites I googled that getting Apple to release 'clear numbers' is very difficult, leading me to believe the numbers aren't that 'career enhancing' for Jobs and his marketing group.

We'll may soon be able to run the Apple OS virtually on any X86 machines in hardware while running MS and Linux, so I get the feeling we'll know even less in the future.

im annoyed at apple always calling itself superior WHEN NO ONE BUYS THEM OR THEIR SOFTWARE except for some of the arts and croissant crowd .....

Most of the ads I see and read are from companies who believe they have a superior product. So what?

As to your "no one buys them" comment, how do you explain this:

Beta was a better videotape format than VHS. The fact that it became the standard, does not change the fact that it was inferior (think Microsoft).

I make my living doing illustration and graphic design; have for 30 years. It's how I take care of my wife and son; it is my business. And I like the taste of croissants. I prefer Macs; so what? Does that make me an irrelevant exception that doesn't really contribute to society? Or, I can't be conservative because I use a Mac? Or I must be gay? Sheesh!

every year since the win95 came out, i have heard mac and their legions always bragging about how great and superior they are in terms of hardware and software and ease of use, blah, blah, blah....

If "no one buys them" how do they have "legions" of users (25 million, by the way) as you put it?

apple is the Air America of personal computer world...

Computers do not have political affiliations. Apple, the company, are capitalists, making a good profit for their stockholders and making excellent products.

always saying they are the true leaders

Take a look at Mac OS X, then a look at Microsoft's new OS, and then honestly tell me whose the leader and whose the follower there.

and yet apple folks stick to their guns....

You Windows Moonies are the ones who are over here on every Apple thread, guns blazing.

years of failure after failure and lack of true sales or more apple users

None of this is accurate. See above chart. And what is the converse of "true sales?"

You mistake sales (quantity) with quality. Based on your logic, the Ford Taurus is a better product than a Rolls Royce (no one buys them either). More people voted for Al Gore, therefore, he is the bettere candidate. (see the problem?)

Get a clue, a dictionary with the words quality and quantity, or better yet, lose the envy and be happy with your favorite computer platform. No one here minds if you prefer Windows; why does it bother you so much that we prefer Mac?

And don't say it doesn't, else you wouldn't be here trying to crap in our Easter basket.

yawwwwn, wow, pretty graphs, it still doesnt change anything....apple is woefully behind in sales, always will be..... i dont care if their sales increase five fold tomorrow, they will still lag way, way, way behind wintel products... put that on your graph and smoke it....

The graph isn't even pretty, isn't supposed to be; it's just basic evidence of an indisputable fact. You sound just as lame as the PC guy in the Mac commercials.

I notice you couldn't respond specifically to any of my points but instead tendered a puerile remark. Kind of like when you pin a liberal down with facts. They're right even when proved wrong. Good luck with that approach.

You've shown yourself to be narrow, oblivious of plain truth, and unable to defend what you've said. I'd say a Windows machine is about right for you, so go back to Windows nirvana and butt out here if you're all talk and no substance.

Are you dim?

Please, USING LOGIC AND FACTS, show how more sales prove higher quality.

And again, BMW says they are better than Chevy, Toro claims to be better than Lawnboy, Maytag tells us they have superior washing machines. All companies do this and the most excellent products rarely have the most sales because they are usually more expensive. Your argument proves NOTHING. As you just said:

i have stated in each of my responses on this thread, the same thing over and over

That's the problem, you simply repeat the same lame thing over and over and refuse to openly debate. Also, kindly point us to where Apple touts the intellect of it's users. Can you actually do it?

Lastly, I have whined of nothing in this thread (point me to it if you believe I have). I have challenged you to defend your position and so far, you can't. You did however carry on earlier to the tune of, 'I hate mac, I hate macs, you couldn't pay me to use one.' That, FYI is whining.

I hear there's a site called DU that eschews logic and reason and has much empathy for whining; maybe you should check that out.

sure, in many ways, large sales dont alway quality

Thank you. overpriced merchandise that isnt user friendly, or intuitive

You have to be kidding.

We're having this argument (from The Pirates of Silicon Valley):
Steve Jobs: We're better than you are! We have better stuff.
Bill Gates: You don't get it, Steve. That doesn't matter!

So, I really enjoy the better stuff. That's my right. Those things I appreciate mean nothing to you, and you prefer being in amongst the herd which gives you an inexpensive product that you feel is winning based on numbers and dollars.

I get off on excellence in human endeavor, you are a utilitarian and a pragmatic. This explains why we have chosen different computers. All of that is fine with me. I have no problem at all with your choice. But you and Echo and Hank before him have a problem with mine.

I would really like to know from any of you what need of yours is satisfied by angrily jumping on every Apple post and trashing the platform we like, inferring that Mac users are mindless, liberal, gay, etc. I'm throwing down the gauntlet and challenging you to tell us what it says about you as a person that you simply MUST do this? Seriously, do you possess the depth to give an honest insightful answer to that?

I'm not allowed to do that on Free Republic.

p.s. Please DO NOT ping me to anymore apple threads. thank you. Tech threads are fine, apple specific ones are a no, no.

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