vs. 
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
Posted on 01/03/2007 3:06:17 PM PST by MikefromOhio
vs.
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
The BCS National Title game is being played in Glendale, Arizona and features the BCS #1 team and Big Ten conference champion Ohio State Buckeyes vs. the BCS #2 and SEC Conference champion Florida Gators.
Being that this is the National Title game as we know it, I’ll break it down by groups. Feel free to disagree if you like, but I’ll do my level best to keep it even here.
This is one of 3 critical match-ups in the game. The Ohio State offensive line is probably one of the best at the school in a decade. The Florida defensive line is renowned for stopping the run, but sometimes struggles to generate a pass rush. This is key as Troy Smith has proven that if, given time to throw, he will be able to connect. The key here is can Florida get a pass rush up the field and whether or not Ohio State can run the ball.
Advantage: Even
Not quite as key as the previous group. Ohio State can throw the ball on just about anyone and this will be the best passing game Florida has faced all year long. We will find out if Florida can cover 4 wide receivers as this is one of Ohio State’s base sets. On the flip side, while Michigan may be statistically the best rush defense, Florida has the better linebackers. Another key assignment for this back 7 of Florida is the containment of a running QB. Troy Smith has made it a point of emphasis that he is NOT a running Quarterback anymore, but I am of the opinion that he can and will make it a point to run at least 3 times in the first couple series of the game.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
This part of the match up favors Ohio State by a rather large margin, especially in the kicking game. Ohio State has one of the most dangerous return games in the nation, with Ted Ginn returning both punts and kicks. Florida’s FG kicking has been atrocious all year long. If this can even out, the game will be much closer. If one side or the other can turn this part of the game into an advantage, then so much the better for their team.
Advantage: Ohio State
This is another part of the game that should favor Ohio State, but not by very much. If Ohio State is able to generate a pass rush on Chris Leak, this will force him to make throws under pressure, something he sometimes has issue with. Another thing that is key in this game, Ohio State must get off the blocks of the Florida offensive line to be effective in the run game. If the Florida offensive line is able to contain the Ohio State defensive line, then the Ohio State linebackers will need to come up and make plays, opening them up to reverses, end-arounds and the pass.
Advantage: Ohio State by a slim margin
Ohio State’s defense has forced some key turnovers all year long. Florida is one of the few teams in college football that matches up well in terms of personnel. I think Florida has enough talent and speed to keep this one interesting. It comes down to what I’ve described above, the Ohio State defensive line and if Chris Leak can make the throws to his players so they can make plays. If Chris Leak gets time, Florida should be just fine here.
Advantage: Florida
Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy. Chris Leak led his team through arguably the toughest conference in the nation this year. Both are good QBs in their own right, but Troy Smith has the offense built around his skills while Chris Leak is a bit of a square peg in a round hole for the Urban Meyer offense. The Florida offense is geared more towards Tim Tebow, who is the wild card here, than someone of Chris Leak’s skill set. Leak might be more accurate on the hole, but Troy Smith has more depth to throw too. If Troy Smith is able to take over this game, it might be a long night for Florida.
Advantage: Ohio State
Some will say that Urban Meyer is playing with Ron Zook’s players, but given the nature of college football, that isn’t a fair analysis. Zook wasn’t able to win the SEC with these players, but Meyer did it in year 2. That should speak volumes. Oddly enough, Jim Tressel won a national title in his 2nd year at Ohio State with John Cooper’s players. Jim Tressel is 2nd only to Pete Carroll when it comes to big games. This will be a big test for Urban Meyer who is no stranger to the BCS himself (UTAH). There is a slight advantage here for Ohio State, being that it’s in Arizona (they’ve won 3 of the last 4 Fiesta Bowls, the other being the year Utah smoked Pitt), they expected to be here as early as last year. Meyer gets to play the “everyone is against us” card.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
They don’t (or at least shouldn’t) take the field, but the crowd can be a factor in the game. In the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State got their fans to pack that stadium, while Miami fans were pretty scarce except in a few sections. One thing I have an issue with, Ohio State fans had a full 2 weeks to get tickets before Florida had even qualified for the BCS National Title game. Expect a majority Ohio State crowd, but Florida will represent better than Miami did in 2002.
This could be a very good game. Or then again it might be a very lopsided game. I personally think that it will be close. Florida has played in hostile environs all year long in the SEC and no other conference can fully duplicate that. To win this game, Florida will need to score at least 30 points while holding down the Ohio State offense. For Ohio State, it’s about establishing their rhythm again and being the juggernaut that averaged 40 points a game their final 5 games of the year. Another thing Florida has, if you believe in streaks, is that Ohio State is 0-7 all-time against the SEC in bowl games and Troy Smith won the Heisman. Most Heisman Winning Quarterbacks have bad bowl games after getting the trophy.
For the fun of it, I have simulated this game on my PS2 using NCAA 2007 made by EA Sports. I’ve played both sides and I’ve let the computer play it as well. Kind of fun to speculate about, but each time the team that won the turnover battle won the game. Ohio State won it two times and Florida won it once. In real life, the turnover battle is important to the outcome as well. IF Chris Leak is able to avoid the bad throws, Florida has a real shot. If he throws a pick or two, Florida is in deep trouble.
My prediction: Ohio State 34 – Florida 27
Just remember, Florida beat that LSU team that is making mincemeat out of Notre Dame, by 13.
On the playoff question, I'm torn. What we saw in the Boise State game was college football at its finest. Would Boise State have a chance of beating two top ten teams with trick plays? I don't think so. But I love the fact that they walk off the field this season as winners and that they proved that there is some good football being played in the WAC.
Finally, the other reason I'm torn about the question of a playoff system is this: playoffs inevitably make the regular season less important. Right now, you can't lose two games and get a shot at the national championship. That makes regular season games count for a lot. That makes the games in September and October of the top-ranked teams very exciting.
I think your 34-27 prediction is close to the truth. Florida coach Urban Meyer will have the Florida team ready, and they won't be pushovers like Notre Dame is tonight.
"I do think Florida could end up being like the deer that had seen the lights of a car before getting hit. Florida could end up getting more in over its heads."
I sure hope you're right, I just don't think this is going to be the romp a lot of OSU fans think it is.
If Ohio State beats Florida, they will have beaten three teams that were ranked #2 at the time of the game.
-Eric
About 15-20 years ago, the University's administration got its panties uptight and decided that the official name of the school was THE Ohio State University. It stuck.
We don't fear the Acorns.
"The Boise State hype is kind of dumb. They've played on ranked team all year.."
Oregon State won ten games this year, beat USC, and will probably finish ranked around #20 in the country. Boise State beat Oregon State 42-14. Hawaii went 11-3 this year, they'll be ranked in the top 25 as well, and Boise State beat them too. If that 3rd quarter Oklahoma punt hadn't taken that fluke bounce and hit the Boise State player leading to a gift touchdown when Oklahoma was down 28-10, that game would have turned into a boat race, probably ending up somewhere around 42-20. It's great that it ended up like it did, however, for obvious reasons.
The only thing we don't know about Boise is how they would have held up when playing teams with physical depth week in week out throughout the year, and what the attrition would have been on their roster. But after watching most of the bowl games, I wouldn't see anyone running those guys off the field this year.
That's the uncertainty: the novel offenses and defenses that pop up for bowl games.
Ummm they beat two top 25 teams this year. Oregon State is #24, and will likely be top 20 at the end of everything. Otherwise go on and rant.
Cool thanks. Its one of those things like "We are Penn State", did somebody claim it too, or did somebody ask who here is Penn State?
You could see the lack of depth on their defense at the end of the game against OU. Petersen knew that his defense was gassed and would not stop OU, so he really had no choice but to go for two when he did.
I think Ohio State will win.
Ummm. That wasn't close to beating. Illinois didn't even make it onto the OSU side of the field until near middle of the 4th quarter. It was 17-0 for quite a while with a field goal scored late then a TD scored in garbage time. After the TD, Illinois got the ball back at their own 2 with 4 seconds left, still down by a TD. This in a game where OSU had their offense shut down in preparation for the UM game.
I believe this will be very close. And I believe OSU would 1) NOT be undefeated if it had to play UF, LSU and Arkansas or if it were in the SEC 2) would not beat LSU.
It will not be an OSU blowout.
So beating a team not even in the top ten makes BS the number one team?
"So beating a team not even in the top ten makes BS the number one team?"
Has Ohio State beaten anyone in the top ten? I guess you could say that Michigan will end up in the top ten, but that's about it, and nobody questions Ohio State's ranking. Boise State beat some good teams this year, and they are 13-0. And as I posted earlier, if that 3rd quarter punt hadn't taken the fluke bounce and hit a Boise player, leading to a gift touchdown for Oklahoma, down 28-10 at the time, Boise would have beaten Oklahoma handily. At the very least, Oklahoma has a lot of good athletes and they certainly came to play in that game, needing a BCS win almost as much as Notre Dame does!!
Boise State should be in the top ten but it would not be had it played in the Big Ten or the SEC. I have little doubt it would get beat by UF, LSU, Arkansas, OSU, Michigan, Louisville, Rutgers, Texas, Wisconsin, Fla. St., Auburn, USC, West Virginia and maybe some others. And I have nothing against the school but it does not match up with many other programs.
"And I have nothing against the school but it does not match up with many other programs."
It wasn't long ago that teams like Louisville and West Virginia were enduring the same skepticism. Now you list both (as well as Rutgers!!) as readily accepted top-level programs. Even as recent as last year, West Virginia was supposed to get run off the field by SEC champion Georgia, and it was Georgia who was nearly run off the field. Boise State has been doing this for a while, I think they have the most wins in the country over the past 7 seasons, and they matched up pretty well physically against Oklahoma the other day. I can tell you this, that offense would score on anyone in the country. Their level of execution and sophistication put most programs to shame.
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