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College Football - The BCS National Title Game - Live Thread
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Posted on 01/03/2007 3:06:17 PM PST by MikefromOhio

THE BCS NATIONAL TITLE GAME

vs.

Florida vs Ohio State (-7)

The BCS National Title game is being played in Glendale, Arizona and features the BCS #1 team and Big Ten conference champion Ohio State Buckeyes vs. the BCS #2 and SEC Conference champion Florida Gators.

Being that this is the National Title game as we know it, I’ll break it down by groups. Feel free to disagree if you like, but I’ll do my level best to keep it even here.

Ohio State’s offensive line vs. Florida’s defensive line:


This is one of 3 critical match-ups in the game. The Ohio State offensive line is probably one of the best at the school in a decade. The Florida defensive line is renowned for stopping the run, but sometimes struggles to generate a pass rush. This is key as Troy Smith has proven that if, given time to throw, he will be able to connect. The key here is can Florida get a pass rush up the field and whether or not Ohio State can run the ball.

Advantage: Even

Ohio State Backs and Receivers vs. Florida’s back seven


Not quite as key as the previous group. Ohio State can throw the ball on just about anyone and this will be the best passing game Florida has faced all year long. We will find out if Florida can cover 4 wide receivers as this is one of Ohio State’s base sets. On the flip side, while Michigan may be statistically the best rush defense, Florida has the better linebackers. Another key assignment for this back 7 of Florida is the containment of a running QB. Troy Smith has made it a point of emphasis that he is NOT a running Quarterback anymore, but I am of the opinion that he can and will make it a point to run at least 3 times in the first couple series of the game.

Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State

Special Teams: Ohio State vs. Florida


This part of the match up favors Ohio State by a rather large margin, especially in the kicking game. Ohio State has one of the most dangerous return games in the nation, with Ted Ginn returning both punts and kicks. Florida’s FG kicking has been atrocious all year long. If this can even out, the game will be much closer. If one side or the other can turn this part of the game into an advantage, then so much the better for their team.

Advantage: Ohio State

Florida’s Offensive Line vs. Ohio State’s Defensive Line


This is another part of the game that should favor Ohio State, but not by very much. If Ohio State is able to generate a pass rush on Chris Leak, this will force him to make throws under pressure, something he sometimes has issue with. Another thing that is key in this game, Ohio State must get off the blocks of the Florida offensive line to be effective in the run game. If the Florida offensive line is able to contain the Ohio State defensive line, then the Ohio State linebackers will need to come up and make plays, opening them up to reverses, end-arounds and the pass.

Advantage: Ohio State by a slim margin

Florida’s backs and receivers vs. Ohio State’s Defensive back seven


Ohio State’s defense has forced some key turnovers all year long. Florida is one of the few teams in college football that matches up well in terms of personnel. I think Florida has enough talent and speed to keep this one interesting. It comes down to what I’ve described above, the Ohio State defensive line and if Chris Leak can make the throws to his players so they can make plays. If Chris Leak gets time, Florida should be just fine here.

Advantage: Florida

The Quarterbacks: Chris Leak vs. Troy Smith


Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy. Chris Leak led his team through arguably the toughest conference in the nation this year. Both are good QBs in their own right, but Troy Smith has the offense built around his skills while Chris Leak is a bit of a square peg in a round hole for the Urban Meyer offense. The Florida offense is geared more towards Tim Tebow, who is the wild card here, than someone of Chris Leak’s skill set. Leak might be more accurate on the hole, but Troy Smith has more depth to throw too. If Troy Smith is able to take over this game, it might be a long night for Florida.

Advantage: Ohio State

The Coaches: Jim Tressel vs. Urban Meyer


Some will say that Urban Meyer is playing with Ron Zook’s players, but given the nature of college football, that isn’t a fair analysis. Zook wasn’t able to win the SEC with these players, but Meyer did it in year 2. That should speak volumes. Oddly enough, Jim Tressel won a national title in his 2nd year at Ohio State with John Cooper’s players. Jim Tressel is 2nd only to Pete Carroll when it comes to big games. This will be a big test for Urban Meyer who is no stranger to the BCS himself (UTAH). There is a slight advantage here for Ohio State, being that it’s in Arizona (they’ve won 3 of the last 4 Fiesta Bowls, the other being the year Utah smoked Pitt), they expected to be here as early as last year. Meyer gets to play the “everyone is against us” card.

Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State

The Crowd


They don’t (or at least shouldn’t) take the field, but the crowd can be a factor in the game. In the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State got their fans to pack that stadium, while Miami fans were pretty scarce except in a few sections. One thing I have an issue with, Ohio State fans had a full 2 weeks to get tickets before Florida had even qualified for the BCS National Title game. Expect a majority Ohio State crowd, but Florida will represent better than Miami did in 2002.

Final Analysis


This could be a very good game. Or then again it might be a very lopsided game. I personally think that it will be close. Florida has played in hostile environs all year long in the SEC and no other conference can fully duplicate that. To win this game, Florida will need to score at least 30 points while holding down the Ohio State offense. For Ohio State, it’s about establishing their rhythm again and being the juggernaut that averaged 40 points a game their final 5 games of the year. Another thing Florida has, if you believe in streaks, is that Ohio State is 0-7 all-time against the SEC in bowl games and Troy Smith won the Heisman. Most Heisman Winning Quarterbacks have bad bowl games after getting the trophy.

For the fun of it, I have simulated this game on my PS2 using NCAA 2007 made by EA Sports. I’ve played both sides and I’ve let the computer play it as well. Kind of fun to speculate about, but each time the team that won the turnover battle won the game. Ohio State won it two times and Florida won it once. In real life, the turnover battle is important to the outcome as well. IF Chris Leak is able to avoid the bad throws, Florida has a real shot. If he throws a pick or two, Florida is in deep trouble.

My prediction: Ohio State 34 – Florida 27


TOPICS: Sports
KEYWORDS: chompemgators; collegefootball; floridagators; football; gatorbait; gators; gogators; gooooooogators; ohiostatebuckeyes; secfootball; tastybuckeyes; whoohoogogators
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To: maineman

Yes, stupid at this time in the game.


621 posted on 01/08/2007 7:01:15 PM PST by doug from upland (Stopping Hillary should be a FreeRepublic Manhattan Project)
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To: commish

24 in the first half is the most given up all year by OSU.


622 posted on 01/08/2007 7:01:18 PM PST by FLOutdoorsman (The Man who says it can't be done should not interrupt the man doing it!)
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To: JCEccles
What UF needs now, right now, is a big, big defensive play by a playmaker. Fumble recovery, interception. Otherwise, OSU will run the ball down the field and try to go in with the momentum and another TD. Down by 3 ain't bad for OSU.

And what did I just say. UF made their stand. This is what UF needed.

The Offense can put the game away with a TD.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

623 posted on 01/08/2007 7:01:23 PM PST by section9 (Major Motoko Kusanagi says, "Jesus is Coming. Everybody look busy...")
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To: dfwgator

TD here and it is Ballgame --- that was complete stupidity on Ohio State's part.


624 posted on 01/08/2007 7:01:40 PM PST by commish (Freedom tastes sweetest to those who have fought to protect it.)
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To: FReepaholic

Huge mistake by the Big 11 rep.


625 posted on 01/08/2007 7:01:45 PM PST by Beowulf
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To: section9

-However, OSU does have a power running game that we haven't seen yet.--

3rd and one: ZIP
4th and one: ZIP

Running game?


626 posted on 01/08/2007 7:01:48 PM PST by UpAllNight
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To: ABG(anybody but Gore)

No, this game is far from over. OSU is amazingly explosive.


627 posted on 01/08/2007 7:01:51 PM PST by doug from upland (Stopping Hillary should be a FreeRepublic Manhattan Project)
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To: maineman

Shows you either that Tressel is getting a little desperate or for some strange reason hasn't seen enough of Florida's defense to give them respect.


628 posted on 01/08/2007 7:02:10 PM PST by Mr. Mulliner
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To: FLOutdoorsman

Half time is not going to be a happy one for the buckeyes


629 posted on 01/08/2007 7:02:15 PM PST by xp38
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To: doug from upland

Dumb, dumb, dumb! First huge mistake I've seen Tressel make in a while.


630 posted on 01/08/2007 7:02:31 PM PST by Ohioan from Florida (The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.- Edmund Burke)
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To: doug from upland

-No, this game is far from over. OSU is amazingly explosive.--

What bowl game does OSU play in?


631 posted on 01/08/2007 7:02:33 PM PST by UpAllNight
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To: doug from upland

Great tackle. I thought Leak was gone.


632 posted on 01/08/2007 7:02:50 PM PST by doug from upland (Stopping Hillary should be a FreeRepublic Manhattan Project)
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To: UpAllNight

Ohio just blew it. Must have been listening to all the hype. But, they'll come out in the second half all fired up...I think.


633 posted on 01/08/2007 7:02:56 PM PST by Jrabbit
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To: xp38

But we all know Florida has been weak in the 2nd half. It will be a great finish!!


634 posted on 01/08/2007 7:03:02 PM PST by FLOutdoorsman (The Man who says it can't be done should not interrupt the man doing it!)
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To: commish

WTF was Tressel thinking? If he loses this game, everyone's going to point right at that call.


635 posted on 01/08/2007 7:03:42 PM PST by CFC__VRWC (AIDS, abortion, euthanasia - Don't liberals just kill ya?)
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To: commish

OHIO STATE must get a stop right here or this one may be over.


636 posted on 01/08/2007 7:03:42 PM PST by commish (Freedom tastes sweetest to those who have fought to protect it.)
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To: FLOutdoorsman

Ohio State can score very quickly. This game may still come down to last possession.


637 posted on 01/08/2007 7:04:12 PM PST by doug from upland (Stopping Hillary should be a FreeRepublic Manhattan Project)
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To: CFC__VRWC

Absolutely!


638 posted on 01/08/2007 7:04:24 PM PST by Ohioan from Florida (The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.- Edmund Burke)
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To: commish
Hetland was 13 of 16 last year. He's struggling this year.

-PJ

639 posted on 01/08/2007 7:04:30 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (It's still not safe to vote Democrat.)
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To: doug from upland

"No, this game is far from over. OSU is amazingly explosive."

Waiting, waiting, waiting:)

Florida will win this game!


640 posted on 01/08/2007 7:04:31 PM PST by Ellesu
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