vs. 
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
Posted on 01/03/2007 3:06:17 PM PST by MikefromOhio
vs.
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
The BCS National Title game is being played in Glendale, Arizona and features the BCS #1 team and Big Ten conference champion Ohio State Buckeyes vs. the BCS #2 and SEC Conference champion Florida Gators.
Being that this is the National Title game as we know it, I’ll break it down by groups. Feel free to disagree if you like, but I’ll do my level best to keep it even here.
This is one of 3 critical match-ups in the game. The Ohio State offensive line is probably one of the best at the school in a decade. The Florida defensive line is renowned for stopping the run, but sometimes struggles to generate a pass rush. This is key as Troy Smith has proven that if, given time to throw, he will be able to connect. The key here is can Florida get a pass rush up the field and whether or not Ohio State can run the ball.
Advantage: Even
Not quite as key as the previous group. Ohio State can throw the ball on just about anyone and this will be the best passing game Florida has faced all year long. We will find out if Florida can cover 4 wide receivers as this is one of Ohio State’s base sets. On the flip side, while Michigan may be statistically the best rush defense, Florida has the better linebackers. Another key assignment for this back 7 of Florida is the containment of a running QB. Troy Smith has made it a point of emphasis that he is NOT a running Quarterback anymore, but I am of the opinion that he can and will make it a point to run at least 3 times in the first couple series of the game.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
This part of the match up favors Ohio State by a rather large margin, especially in the kicking game. Ohio State has one of the most dangerous return games in the nation, with Ted Ginn returning both punts and kicks. Florida’s FG kicking has been atrocious all year long. If this can even out, the game will be much closer. If one side or the other can turn this part of the game into an advantage, then so much the better for their team.
Advantage: Ohio State
This is another part of the game that should favor Ohio State, but not by very much. If Ohio State is able to generate a pass rush on Chris Leak, this will force him to make throws under pressure, something he sometimes has issue with. Another thing that is key in this game, Ohio State must get off the blocks of the Florida offensive line to be effective in the run game. If the Florida offensive line is able to contain the Ohio State defensive line, then the Ohio State linebackers will need to come up and make plays, opening them up to reverses, end-arounds and the pass.
Advantage: Ohio State by a slim margin
Ohio State’s defense has forced some key turnovers all year long. Florida is one of the few teams in college football that matches up well in terms of personnel. I think Florida has enough talent and speed to keep this one interesting. It comes down to what I’ve described above, the Ohio State defensive line and if Chris Leak can make the throws to his players so they can make plays. If Chris Leak gets time, Florida should be just fine here.
Advantage: Florida
Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy. Chris Leak led his team through arguably the toughest conference in the nation this year. Both are good QBs in their own right, but Troy Smith has the offense built around his skills while Chris Leak is a bit of a square peg in a round hole for the Urban Meyer offense. The Florida offense is geared more towards Tim Tebow, who is the wild card here, than someone of Chris Leak’s skill set. Leak might be more accurate on the hole, but Troy Smith has more depth to throw too. If Troy Smith is able to take over this game, it might be a long night for Florida.
Advantage: Ohio State
Some will say that Urban Meyer is playing with Ron Zook’s players, but given the nature of college football, that isn’t a fair analysis. Zook wasn’t able to win the SEC with these players, but Meyer did it in year 2. That should speak volumes. Oddly enough, Jim Tressel won a national title in his 2nd year at Ohio State with John Cooper’s players. Jim Tressel is 2nd only to Pete Carroll when it comes to big games. This will be a big test for Urban Meyer who is no stranger to the BCS himself (UTAH). There is a slight advantage here for Ohio State, being that it’s in Arizona (they’ve won 3 of the last 4 Fiesta Bowls, the other being the year Utah smoked Pitt), they expected to be here as early as last year. Meyer gets to play the “everyone is against us” card.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
They don’t (or at least shouldn’t) take the field, but the crowd can be a factor in the game. In the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State got their fans to pack that stadium, while Miami fans were pretty scarce except in a few sections. One thing I have an issue with, Ohio State fans had a full 2 weeks to get tickets before Florida had even qualified for the BCS National Title game. Expect a majority Ohio State crowd, but Florida will represent better than Miami did in 2002.
This could be a very good game. Or then again it might be a very lopsided game. I personally think that it will be close. Florida has played in hostile environs all year long in the SEC and no other conference can fully duplicate that. To win this game, Florida will need to score at least 30 points while holding down the Ohio State offense. For Ohio State, it’s about establishing their rhythm again and being the juggernaut that averaged 40 points a game their final 5 games of the year. Another thing Florida has, if you believe in streaks, is that Ohio State is 0-7 all-time against the SEC in bowl games and Troy Smith won the Heisman. Most Heisman Winning Quarterbacks have bad bowl games after getting the trophy.
For the fun of it, I have simulated this game on my PS2 using NCAA 2007 made by EA Sports. I’ve played both sides and I’ve let the computer play it as well. Kind of fun to speculate about, but each time the team that won the turnover battle won the game. Ohio State won it two times and Florida won it once. In real life, the turnover battle is important to the outcome as well. IF Chris Leak is able to avoid the bad throws, Florida has a real shot. If he throws a pick or two, Florida is in deep trouble.
My prediction: Ohio State 34 – Florida 27
Although it can be said BSU had a weak schedule the 4 teams playing in bowls that lost to BSU went 3-1 in those bowl games.
--Although it can be said BSU had a weak schedule the 4 teams playing in bowls that lost to BSU went 3-1 in those bowl games.--
I don't think BSU would have been undefeated if they had to play Arkansas, LSU, Auburn, OSU in the same season.
"I'm eating my heart out that USC blew their shot...."
I feel the same way, but it's a battle to do this year in and year out, given the competition. Seems like there are a good 7-10 teams that each year, if things go their way, could be playing for a title. Pretty amazing we were in the mix three years in a row (and right there for the last five, really). And with who we have coming back next year, wow, we're right back in it again. Gonna be fun.
Congratulations to Florida for this year. They played a tough schedule and were battle-hardened and ready to win the championship. They deserved it.
Yeah, I remember he was there during the Selmon years. I met him a few times.
Were any of those TX teams Odessa or Midland?
Congrats to both the Florida Gators and their fans. You were not that deer caught looking at the car headlights after all.
If you can get past North Carolina or UCLA baskeball teams in April, Florida will have a lot on their hands then.
I'll sum up tonight's game like so:
SHOCK and AWE!!!!!!!!!
Now for the rant:
Ted Ginn, we're still big fans and all, but short of your ankle or foot bring broken maybe you could have given it a chance. My God the offense looked about as good as the Browns do.I guess I'll give SOME props to the Gators scheming system. And by the way just how many times tonight was a block missed??????
And the Heisman jinx goes on and on. Troy Smith, you are heading to the NFL but not before the 2nd or 3rd round, buddy!!!!! Talk about being not ready. I guess once 7 was on the sidelines, you, or anyone else for that matter couldn't bother to step up!!!!
The bulletproof vest worn under Jim Tressel's sweater vest came off tonight. This is a threefolded issue.
-----Why not try an onside kick after the Ginn TD? What other way could you have imagined being up 10 or 14-0 right off the bat. Then you could have thanked Urban for deferring the kickoff.
-----Why not step up the tempo at the start, just like UF did???? Even without Ginn in there, we still have much quality there. And maybe then Troy isn't running for his life all night.
-----I DO NOT have a problem with the 4th down call on our 29, but couldn't you have tried something that would
have gained at least 2-3 yards. And you should have called a T.O. and maybe the refs woud have looked at it. I know you used the challenge before and lost. So that was not available at the time.
-----Why not go 2 minute offense right off the bat in the 2nd half. At that point, down 20, there's nothing to lose.
Coach Tressel, you've got some explaining to do!!!!!!!
Necessary tagline change time.
Well, when USC lost to UCLA I was relieved because I thought Ohio State would have embarrassed us anyway. I guess you never know! Who would have thunk the game would have turned out this way?
"Pretty amazing we were in the mix three years in a row (and right there for the last five, really)." YUP! I don't think any team recently has been as consistently dominant as USC.
Dark horse prediction:
The guy that recruited most of the Gators is now at Illinois and has already gotten a commitment from this year's #1 high school player. Look for Illinois -- yes Illinois-- to be a contender in 3 or 4 years!
Zook is a players coach, kids like him, that's why he's a good recruiter.
But the knock on him at UF was that he was not willing to be enough of disciplinarian. He simply was too nice, and his game management skills were not the best. But nobody here denied his abilities as a recruiter.
Oh, yeah, WF. Also, the OU QB who is my age was from Abilene Cooper (Mildren). Bet you remember the Oil Bowl games? JC was around your time.
Oh my, I just saw a friend's name on one of the OK teams from back then and I never knew he had played FB! He was a QB for an OK team in the Oil Bowl. How neat.
Well, you were certainly in the trenches and I know that any one of those N TX HS teams could've played OU and scored on them. Like our Red-White game in the spring when the old-timers play!
KEWL! I'm booking my Mississippi Riverboat cruise now!
Congrats to you for being the first one all night to question why Ted Ginn didn't return to that game. The guy ran back out on the field and I saw no limp whatsoever. Then all of a sudden, he's wearing some walking cast type thing? What was that, in a national title game. Seems like he ran his kick back, got a little banged up and decided to protect his NFL draft status!! Geez, national title game.
Tonight's' game was a corker...loved to see the SEC/Florida come out on top. Next to the SEC I love to see the old members of the SWC do well as well as Oklahoma. When it comes to Texas versus Oklahoma...well I am with Oklahoma. I went on to Tennessee and after a ten year stint in the USAF & graduated from U of Tenn.
Good Luck Next Year!! Congratulations Florida!!Goodnight...
There are two games I never predict: USC vs. UCLA and USC vs. ND.
If I go in thinking that "anything can happen", then I am never too disappointed in the outcome, when it does not favor my team.
After seeing (live) probably 25 USC vs. UCLA games, believe me............... anything can happen!!
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