http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=Al+Qaeda&btnG=Search+News
I'll cut to the chase....it is the quality of the last tape and the method that was used to get it out to the world....that is the key.
AQ has been posting tapes by using the internet...uploading the file to a server and then it is put out to the masses..very modern method.....BUT not now....they have gone back to using couriers to get the tape out and having Al Jazerra broadcast it.
From the STRATFOR ARTICLE:
Although the message might not be particularly telling about al Qaeda's intentions or capabilities, the lower quality of the production itself suggests something is amiss inside As-Sahab. In the past, As-Sahab has released professional-quality videos of al-Zawahiri, often with elaborate digital backdrops. This latest message, while a new recording from al-Zawahiri, shows only a still image of him. This is out of character for al-Zawahiri, who often appears in new videos separated by mere weeks. He has not issued an audio message in nearly a year. This one, then, is more like the statements attributed to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.
Al Qaeda has a history of releasing statements to coincide with Muslim holidays. Eid al-Adha is a fixed date on the calendar, meaning As-Sahab would have had plenty of time to plan and produce a more elaborate video. The video's simplicity, however, does not mean it was rushed into production. There is no mention of the retreat beginning Dec. 26 of Islamist forces in Somalia following the Ethiopian assault, or of the execution of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, indicating the message was recorded prior to these events.
For most of 2006, following the Jan. 13 airstrike on an alleged al Qaeda safe-house in Damadola, Pakistan, al Qaeda delivered most of its messages via the Internet, rather than through Al Jazeera using a system of couriers. For the Dec. 20 video, however, As-Sahab reverted to its former method. This inconsistency in distribution could indicate something has been compromised in al Qaeda's ability to get these statements onto the Web.
Furthermore, although other factors could be involved, it would appear that whatever facilities were at As-Sahab's disposal for the Dec. 20 video were not available for this latest release. This could be because the production cycle was compromised, or because security considerations dictated a move to a less-vulnerable, more-austere location. It could also be that operational and security conditions made it too difficult to get to al-Zawahiri to make a new video.
It seems clear that either As-Sahab's production or distribution methods -- or possibly both -- have been degraded. However, the group's command and control for media releases seems to be intact to the extent that it is able to release a video to coincide with a fixed date on the calendar.
BBC: Net tightens on Somali Islamists ~ Kenya shuting down border
And from the Captain's Quarters :
See this from CQ:
January 01, 2007
Islamists Bug Out Of Somalia
****************************AN EXCERPT *************************
The collapse of their hold in Somalia has punctured the myth of invincibility of these supposed holy warriors and exposed as lies their pledges to fight to the death to hold the ummah. Now that they have shown their true colors, the armies of Kenya and Ethiopia will have little trouble wiping up what's left of the terrorist and tyrranous Arab and South Asian militias.
Once again, this shows the West how to properly square off against Islamist forces. Only by conducting a true war with massive, overwhelming force will these terrorists be destroyed.
I have finally figured out the breed of canine you are. You are a NEWS HOUND!