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Good points, and actually Adama's death would make a lot of room for other characters to develop quite a bit, but I don't know that any of them could carry the show at this point. Having rewatched it, his character has picked the show up and put it on his back several times.

I would see Baltar being killed off before Adama, simply because Baltar has two friends - himself and Number 6 - everybody else wants him dead.

That's kind of the strength of Olmos, I'd be really sad if they killed Bill Adama off because Olmos is really why I decided to watch the show in the first place (pre-release press didn't impress me, but I think Olmos is a brilliant actor and have watched many things just because he's in it and he's always worth watching, of course with BSG I got hooked on the whole show in half an ep).

Baltar is a possibility, there were some indications during the preview that Baltar could get killed/ be a cylon. That would also be major. One way or the other sure to be interesting.