The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia 2006 Update
Posted on 09/01/2006 6:36:27 PM PDT by Jeff Head
I have been keeping a major web site up regarding the growth of the Chinese NAvy for the last four years. This is the 2006 Update.
Throughout 2005 and 2006 the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has continued its unprecedented modernization and buildup, working on and procuring twelve seperate classes of major combatants. Increasing numbers of new guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, fast attack craft, very modern and quiet diesel/electric attack submarines, nuclear attack submarines, nuclear ballistic missile submarines, logisitic support craft, amphibious assault craft, and the infrastructure and aircraft to support them are being built. The PLAN has now settled on several classes of vessels to be built in serial production after several years of testing and evaluation of initial production runs of two each of those vessels.
By way of comparison, since 2000, the Chinese Navy has added an additional 72 new, major combatants...a net growth of 72 major combatants. In that same time the US Navy has built 39 major new combatants, but also decommissioned 45 major combatants, most of them with ten or more years service life remaining in them according to their original construction plans, for a net of -8 major combatants.
Now, while the overall numbers, technology, and strategies are still signifcantly in favor of the US Navy, the trend is disconcerting because future construction plans call for projecting similar trends.
Of course, one undetectable Ohio, whether SSBN or SSCN, is an unbelievable ship.
FYI, the designation for the Ohio Cruise missile ships is SSGN, and yes, they are awesome vessels. Earlier this year, I was priveleged to get a 2-3 hour tour of the USS Ohio at Bremerton, Washington. Amazing vessel, amazing technology, and an amazing crew.
Do they carry 24? In our book, Trident in 1984, we suggested the use of rotary launcers that would allow a single Trident to carry 160-something of these!!!
The SSGN conversion allows for seven Tomahawk missiles to be placed into eack large missile tube. A circular pattern of six with one in the middle for seven. 22 of the silos are used for missiles, so that's 154 Tomahawk missiles in each SSGN. The other two silos are used for the SEALS.
Wow. That's, er, pretty much all of China.
The SSBN Ohio class are simply an awesome deterrent. Not only do they have 240 warheads on each vessel, their range and accuracy is astounding and their ability to go undetected, to this day, is simply phenominal.
When you consider that we probably have four or five of these boats at sea at all times, then any nation on earth has to know that they will be decimated entirely...back to the stone age...should they consider hitting our nation with any nukes.
And they are "un-findable." When the Ohio went on sea trials, our own ASW couldn't find it---and we were light years ahead of the Soviets. I'm sure we are light years ahead of the Chinese in ASW/stealthy running, too.
Although our own Sea Wolf and Virginia class these days are capable enough that they could quite probably find them.
The photo of the Type 039 passing between Kowloon and HK Island is chilling.
The missile cats appear to leverage a dual use concept also used for many of the high speed ferries being develope indigenously.
And the first mention of attacking any target in the PRC will be opposed in a way that many cannot even imagine, by the business community and by all politicians who are overly beholden to them. What will be done to overcome it? Imagine the media circus. Imagine the debates in Congress. Imagine the behind the scenes pressure on decision makers to back off and kowtow.
As one who has also spent a bit of time in the Middle Kingdom, I agree 100%. We are in big trouble and we are not preparing for what is likely.
Having paid a relatively recent visit to the Pearl River Delta, however, I could not help imagining a real world nuclear war scenario. To be confident in destroying all the military and industrial targets, I suspect we would need to use quite a few warheads. I see two things driving this. Some areas are just massive in area and simply to cover the total area is a challenge. Then, there are all these far flung smaller areas that also need to be struck. The sheer volume of targets in the PRC is truly daunting. Everything there is in large quantities. Someone once said quanitity has a quality of its own.
It's been planned and engineered that way.
As to the missile boats, they are fast and stealthy and those four missiles they carry are very dangerous. They are building them in large numbers now. My guess is they will be used in the close in work against places like Taiwan and islands of the S. China Sea to keep our, or our allies, larger surface combatants at bay.
Unless caught completely unprepared and flat footed, they would be hard for a sub to take out. It would have to be airpower and they will operate close in to shore under heavy PLAAF cover.
RE: "As to the missile boats, they are fast and stealthy and those four missiles they carry are very dangerous. They are building them in large numbers now."
So, I am riding on a ferry in a corner of the Pearl Delta and lo and behold, what do I see literally sitting on a mud flat, being completed. A hull. For those who have not witnessed the typically Chinese ways of using many small low tech tasks to build something high tech, it will come as a shock when the harsh reality becomes undeniable. We in the West have nothing to compare this to in our easily accessible experience. The last point in history where the East was this strong and ascendent was back when we were in the Middle Ages.
Thanks for the ping Jeff. You've done a lot of valuable research here and I agree with you that China is going to be a threat over the next few years that's grossly under-realized, at least by the average American citizen. The citizens who are ignorant of the threat ought to read your Dragon's Fury series. That'll wake them up! {g}
jeff, thanks for the heads up.
Thanks...that's the whole reason I wrote the series. FYI< I am almost complete with a re-write of the entire thing. Same basic storyline, but a lot of the technology and the geo-political situation brought up to dat, and the entire thing written with no specifc year reference. It'll be out soon as a free adobe ebook download, and then as a printed book in one large volume.
You're welcome my friend, and thanks for pinging others to the party. Hope all is well with you and yours.
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