If Landis stays with Leipheimer through the mountains, then yes, Leipheimer is out of it. Levi will need to gain significant time on Floyd (and even if he does, remember there is still another TT one week from Saturday). He can still get a podium spot, but will need to put significant time into the field up in the mountains.
I am a fairly new fan of the tour, but I think from the last couple of years that the first week pretty much have been the sprinters time to dominate.
As for your other questions, I'll have to defer the questions to the more knowledgable fans ;-)
Tomorrow probalby won't do much tot he GC because of the long downhill into pau. Thursday, with it's mountain-top finish in Val-d'aran will probably show us who has the legs.
Back in '01, Armstrong was over half an hour down to Stuart O'Grady at this point (and 20 minutes or so to Andrei Kivilev) in the GC, due to a huge 14 rider breakaway in stage 8. They all finished 36 minutes ahead of the peleton. None could keep the lead in the mountains.
Theoretically, a rider could be more than 10 min back at this point and still make it up but practically, that doesn't happen. Anyone who has a legitimate shot (Landis, Hincapie, Kloden,etc) will be chased if they try to get away from the peloton which, of course, is the only way to make up big time gaps. The way that a rider can succeed, however, is if he can ride like Lance did- truly riding away from the pack that is incapable of following. Frankly, I don't see a rider being that dominant this year. Lance had a way of dancing on his pedals and devastating the field. We also have the ITT the next to last day so a rider who is a lousy TTr would have to build a heck of an advantage to protect his lead that day or he'd have to ride a strong ITT himself- favors riders like Landis IMO.
It seems like they usually get to the mountains 1 stage quicker in the clockwise years, since the Alps are so much further north, and the Tour 'always' starts in the north. Could be interesting w/ the UK start next year, wonder where the 1st continental stage will be??
Is it normal for the tour to take this long to get to the mountains?