[js1138]

As you say, the requirement to consider all the permutations and combinations does not model reality, because each generation starts with the same "hand."

Let's say you have a poker hand, and you need a flush to improve it. Here's all the possible ways your hand can change, one card at a time.

00: HHHCH need a flush.
01: SHHCH
02: DHHCH
03: CHHCH
04: HSHCH
05: HDHCH
06: HCHCH
07: HHSCH
08: HHDCH
09: HHCCH
10: HHHSH
11: HHHDH
12: HHHHH The winner.
13: HHHCS
14: HHHCD
15: HHHCC

All possible changes are explored in 15 cases (3*5, not 3^5). Evolution "looks" for the small change that will confer a reproductive advantage. A complete reshuffle would most likely give you a busted flush or a dead critter.

Once a benefit is found, that sequence becomes the standard hand from which the next improvement may be found.

[Southack]

"All possible changes are explored in 15 cases (3*5, not 3^5). Evolution "looks" for the small change that will confer a reproductive advantage."

How did your bacteria experiment obtain 20 million unique DNA sequences using your above 3*N math (and an "N" of 1953)?

[Southack]

"Let's say you have a poker hand, and you need a flush to improve it. Here's all the possible ways your hand can change, one card at a time."

Welcome to Intelligent Design.

Your hand didn't change itself; you changed it.