Times Online June 14, 2006
Mahmoud al-Zahar, who was stopped at the border with $20 million in his suitcase (George Azar/The Times)
There are multiple factors that made Iran do what it did. None of them were intended to take any credit 'after the fact'. The take down decision was made at the top levels of the neo-Iranian regime (Ahmadi-Nejad etc.) with Al Qaeda input and request. The "leak" of this being Iranian has damaged them not helped them and was not intended to come out.
1. They host some very senior Al Qaeda leaders, including OBL's son and several hundred others. These were increasingly upset at Zarghawi refusing to work with the most senior Al Qaeda operative in Iraq and rising above his position. Remember he was considered a thug and a half-wit even by the Al Qaeda, so not held in high esteem for what he did.
2. As you say, Iran backs the Shias and Zarghawi crossed the line with his slaughter of Shia innocents. And also Sunnis in a fairly indiscriminate fashion to suit himself not Iran's plans. This reached a point where he became a liability to the whole insurgency movement - with both Sunnis and Shias and Iraqis in general beginning to hate him for killing innocents.
This began to instigate an anti-insurgency backlash and Iraqis began to give up insurgents. Even openly fight against them in some areas. Not good for Iran's general plans. Nor Al Qaeda's objectives.
3.Iran has plans that require an even "negotiating" apearance as they try to buy time with the USA - as they have for years with the EU. Zarghawi was making this impossible and would not take orders any more. Even after Al Qaeda put in place someone above him and the other senior Al Qaeda man in Iraq to try to maintain some semblance of order in the ranks.
4. Iran's stance against Israel requires their surrogates HAMAS to be less of a target in Jordan, which had begun finding, arresting and disarming HAMAS operatives. And their weapons caches. Which through Syria and Jordan itself could be turned back and used against Israel at the right time. Again Zarghawi was making this impossible with his attacks on/in Jordan, including killing a prominent HAMAS leader in the hotel bombing.
5. He publicly berated and disrespecgted Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad for paying lip service to the destruction of Israel and not really taking any action to achieve it. Remember Zarghawi is a Palestinian and a loose cannon here, who wants the destruction of Israel more than anything else. Other than rising to prominence to a point where he overshadows OBL and Al-Zawahiri. Neither of whom could stomach the dimwitted thug nor rely on his weak brain power to do what was best for the movement rather than personal notoriety.
6. Jordan feels vulnerable as HAMAS and 65% of Jordan's Palestinian population were reverting to considering Jordan as the new Palestinian State, something Arafat tried to promote but was kicked out of the country for preaching sedition. Zarghawi was again helping foment this thought and had to be removed sooner or later for Jordan's survival as a monarchy.
7. Iran would love for this story to go away instead of having two Iranian passengers in a car shot to death and their consulate in Southern Iraq attacked by Shias. Who resented Iran's support of Zarghawi and the latter's indiscrimihate murder of Shias. While Sunnis were becoming increasingly irritated by the manner of sectarian strife Zarghawi was sowing. Mostly indiscriinate slaughter. Neither Iran nor Al Qaeda needed this to continue after it crossed the red line of tolerance or acceptance by Iraqis. But Zarghawi would not listen and was "fired" - permanantly.
Iran could not clearly sully its own hands with his blood, so came the conduit to Jordan via HAMAS.
With Zarghawi becoming too big for his boots to listen to instructions and becoming a liability too great to continue to accept his mindless killings, Iran gave HAMAS detailed info, which they passed to Jordan, which then adivsed us in Washington DC.
Letting the USA know may not have been part of the plan since HAMAS was offering Jordan an olive branch and probably hoped Jordanian Special Forces, who operated in the region, would kill Zarghawi (they have always wanted him badly).
Jordan wants a slow down or halt to the USA pushing for a Palestinian State because it could be Jordan itself that became earmarked to be that State rather than the West Bank or Ghaza. So Jordan gave us the heads up to earn some brownie points.
This is all convoluted interaction of many policies and varied benefits among confrontational and amicable parties.
I respect your comments and would never need an apology of any kind ever, just a realization that interactions here run deeper and in more directions than may appear to your logic at first sight.
NOW! What think you of the North Korea missile situation? Has it also occurred to you that it is a proving test for equipment already sold to Iran?
That it is not an independent N. Korean action or test or sabre rattling but linked to Iranian plans for missiles and nuclear capability?
N. Korea has been the provider of nose cones to Iran and now a longer range missile than Iran's Shahab 3.
Which has to be first tested and proved before Iran hands over the money?
BTW - Somebody posted a link in this thread to the GIS website which describes what their activites are and have been for DECADES.
They are the "go-to" guys for many intel organizations as they have worldwide "assets" on the ground and among intel services of many countries. I cannot remember which post it was but it provided a link with contacts. As far as I know you can only subscribe if you are a member of a recognized intel organization. It's not for the general public or the Press.
They are unerringly, sometimes eerily accurate and totally unjournalistic in their presentations. They write analyses for the intel pro and only for them.
Again Zarghawi was making this impossible with his attacks on/in Jordan, including killing a prominent HAMAS leader in the hotel bombing.
BIG MISTAKE!
Sounds like $ 20 million blood money found its way to Hamas.
Times Online June 14, 2006
Mahmoud al-Zahar, who was stopped at the border with $20 million in his suitcase (George Azar/The Times)
That it is not an independent N. Korean action or test or sabre rattling but linked to Iranian plans for missiles and nuclear capability?
N. Korea has been the provider of nose cones to Iran and now a longer range missile than Iran's Shahab 3.
Which has to be first tested and proved before Iran hands over the money?
What proof is there for these assertions?
No doubt. I'm not convinced yet, but I have a better understanding of your reasoning now. My biggest problems is I have a problem atributing this level of sophisticated thinking to Ahmadi-Nejad. The man is clearly insane. So if this scenario is true, it must be the mullahs behind the scenes. That or he is a very good actor and deserving of an academy award. Time will tell.
I respect your comments and would never need an apology of any kind ever, just a realization that interactions here run deeper and in more directions than may appear to your logic at first sight.
Likewise.
NOW! What think you of the North Korea missile situation? Has it also occurred to you that it is a proving test for equipment already sold to Iran?
I agree with that. They have had a somewhat symbiotic relationship for quite some time. Each has what the other needs. Iran needs nukes and long-range delivery systems, and North Korean needs oil to fuel it's military machine. It is also likely that Iran is financing North Korean research and testing.
Therefore, we should shoot that sucker down before it leaves Korean airspace--either with an Aegis sitting off the coast or the new airborne laser, or both. A nice fireball over Pyongyang would send a message even Kim and Nejad would understand.
I would also publicly state that since the two nation seemed joined at the military and nuclear hip, that any action by one will be seen and treated as an action by both.
Thank you for the ping.
Even tho I am late in reading my pings, I have posted it on the WT thread.
I would be interested on your thoughts on the Chinese in Palestine as advisors......in post 417.
I pulled several searches, it looks interesting, but I have not gone back to work them through.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1650751/posts?page=508