Times Online June 14, 2006
Mahmoud al-Zahar, who was stopped at the border with $20 million in his suitcase (George Azar/The Times)
Posted on 06/15/2006 8:47:26 PM PDT by FARS
There are multiple factors that made Iran do what it did. None of them were intended to take any credit 'after the fact'. The take down decision was made at the top levels of the neo-Iranian regime (Ahmadi-Nejad etc.) with Al Qaeda input and request. The "leak" of this being Iranian has damaged them not helped them and was not intended to come out.
1. They host some very senior Al Qaeda leaders, including OBL's son and several hundred others. These were increasingly upset at Zarghawi refusing to work with the most senior Al Qaeda operative in Iraq and rising above his position. Remember he was considered a thug and a half-wit even by the Al Qaeda, so not held in high esteem for what he did.
2. As you say, Iran backs the Shias and Zarghawi crossed the line with his slaughter of Shia innocents. And also Sunnis in a fairly indiscriminate fashion to suit himself not Iran's plans. This reached a point where he became a liability to the whole insurgency movement - with both Sunnis and Shias and Iraqis in general beginning to hate him for killing innocents.
This began to instigate an anti-insurgency backlash and Iraqis began to give up insurgents. Even openly fight against them in some areas. Not good for Iran's general plans. Nor Al Qaeda's objectives.
3.Iran has plans that require an even "negotiating" apearance as they try to buy time with the USA - as they have for years with the EU. Zarghawi was making this impossible and would not take orders any more. Even after Al Qaeda put in place someone above him and the other senior Al Qaeda man in Iraq to try to maintain some semblance of order in the ranks.
4. Iran's stance against Israel requires their surrogates HAMAS to be less of a target in Jordan, which had begun finding, arresting and disarming HAMAS operatives. And their weapons caches. Which through Syria and Jordan itself could be turned back and used against Israel at the right time. Again Zarghawi was making this impossible with his attacks on/in Jordan, including killing a prominent HAMAS leader in the hotel bombing.
5. He publicly berated and disrespecgted Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad for paying lip service to the destruction of Israel and not really taking any action to achieve it. Remember Zarghawi is a Palestinian and a loose cannon here, who wants the destruction of Israel more than anything else. Other than rising to prominence to a point where he overshadows OBL and Al-Zawahiri. Neither of whom could stomach the dimwitted thug nor rely on his weak brain power to do what was best for the movement rather than personal notoriety.
6. Jordan feels vulnerable as HAMAS and 65% of Jordan's Palestinian population were reverting to considering Jordan as the new Palestinian State, something Arafat tried to promote but was kicked out of the country for preaching sedition. Zarghawi was again helping foment this thought and had to be removed sooner or later for Jordan's survival as a monarchy.
7. Iran would love for this story to go away instead of having two Iranian passengers in a car shot to death and their consulate in Southern Iraq attacked by Shias. Who resented Iran's support of Zarghawi and the latter's indiscrimihate murder of Shias. While Sunnis were becoming increasingly irritated by the manner of sectarian strife Zarghawi was sowing. Mostly indiscriinate slaughter. Neither Iran nor Al Qaeda needed this to continue after it crossed the red line of tolerance or acceptance by Iraqis. But Zarghawi would not listen and was "fired" - permanantly.
Iran could not clearly sully its own hands with his blood, so came the conduit to Jordan via HAMAS.
With Zarghawi becoming too big for his boots to listen to instructions and becoming a liability too great to continue to accept his mindless killings, Iran gave HAMAS detailed info, which they passed to Jordan, which then adivsed us in Washington DC.
Letting the USA know may not have been part of the plan since HAMAS was offering Jordan an olive branch and probably hoped Jordanian Special Forces, who operated in the region, would kill Zarghawi (they have always wanted him badly).
Jordan wants a slow down or halt to the USA pushing for a Palestinian State because it could be Jordan itself that became earmarked to be that State rather than the West Bank or Ghaza. So Jordan gave us the heads up to earn some brownie points.
This is all convoluted interaction of many policies and varied benefits among confrontational and amicable parties.
I respect your comments and would never need an apology of any kind ever, just a realization that interactions here run deeper and in more directions than may appear to your logic at first sight.
NOW! What think you of the North Korea missile situation? Has it also occurred to you that it is a proving test for equipment already sold to Iran?
That it is not an independent N. Korean action or test or sabre rattling but linked to Iranian plans for missiles and nuclear capability?
N. Korea has been the provider of nose cones to Iran and now a longer range missile than Iran's Shahab 3.
Which has to be first tested and proved before Iran hands over the money?
BTW - Somebody posted a link in this thread to the GIS website which describes what their activites are and have been for DECADES.
They are the "go-to" guys for many intel organizations as they have worldwide "assets" on the ground and among intel services of many countries. I cannot remember which post it was but it provided a link with contacts. As far as I know you can only subscribe if you are a member of a recognized intel organization. It's not for the general public or the Press.
They are unerringly, sometimes eerily accurate and totally unjournalistic in their presentations. They write analyses for the intel pro and only for them.
Again Zarghawi was making this impossible with his attacks on/in Jordan, including killing a prominent HAMAS leader in the hotel bombing.
BIG MISTAKE!
Sounds like $ 20 million blood money found its way to Hamas.
Times Online June 14, 2006
Mahmoud al-Zahar, who was stopped at the border with $20 million in his suitcase (George Azar/The Times)
That it is not an independent N. Korean action or test or sabre rattling but linked to Iranian plans for missiles and nuclear capability?
N. Korea has been the provider of nose cones to Iran and now a longer range missile than Iran's Shahab 3.
Which has to be first tested and proved before Iran hands over the money?
What proof is there for these assertions?
it is a proving test for equipment already sold to Iran?
I think that this is just an informed speculation.
N. Korea has been the provider of nose cones to Iran and now a longer range missile than Iran's Shahab 3.
This could be true. N. Korea has been selling its missile technology for a long time, sometimes in exchange for oil.
No doubt. I'm not convinced yet, but I have a better understanding of your reasoning now. My biggest problems is I have a problem atributing this level of sophisticated thinking to Ahmadi-Nejad. The man is clearly insane. So if this scenario is true, it must be the mullahs behind the scenes. That or he is a very good actor and deserving of an academy award. Time will tell.
I respect your comments and would never need an apology of any kind ever, just a realization that interactions here run deeper and in more directions than may appear to your logic at first sight.
Likewise.
NOW! What think you of the North Korea missile situation? Has it also occurred to you that it is a proving test for equipment already sold to Iran?
I agree with that. They have had a somewhat symbiotic relationship for quite some time. Each has what the other needs. Iran needs nukes and long-range delivery systems, and North Korean needs oil to fuel it's military machine. It is also likely that Iran is financing North Korean research and testing.
Therefore, we should shoot that sucker down before it leaves Korean airspace--either with an Aegis sitting off the coast or the new airborne laser, or both. A nice fireball over Pyongyang would send a message even Kim and Nejad would understand.
I would also publicly state that since the two nation seemed joined at the military and nuclear hip, that any action by one will be seen and treated as an action by both.
Thanks - the whole thing didn't made sense before -- this information adds a dot.
The previous supply of four nuclear nose cones for the Shahab3 missile is old news and common knowledge in intel circles. Nothing new here.
The possibility of the new N. Korean missile test being done for Iranians is the kind of analysis done by intel people on the basis of "if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck etc., then it is most likely to be a duck".
The timing, the fit into the waft and weave of the symbiotic relationship of Iran and N. Korea and the need Iran has to expand its range, all fit too comfortably and conveniently to be off the mark. Like fitting pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, IF and as the pieces fit they create a picture.
The sudden sabre rattling move by N. Korea does not fit the current picture well and would be weird timing even if they do have a tendency to act in strange ways. Given a choice the "duck" factor fits better.
Most intel is based on extrapolating givens or close to givens to try to see beyond the obvious, then assessing the likelihood of this being reality more than sheer conjecture. Interlocking cogs of information then adjust the focus till we hopefully get a true view of what would otherwise remain hidden.
Much is often not available as "proof" or as posted articles with MSM, so you either ride with the logical analysis or you reject it. That is your option and mine, which does not matter since we are not decision makers.
Rather like the disinformation being put out by the Guardian and Juan Cole that 70% of Iranians suport Ahmadi-Nejad and that there is no idiom in Farsi (Persian) that can say "wipe Isreael off the face of the world map", so it was never said!
First, Ahmadi-Nejad would love to have that kind of support. Pure BS by the Guardian that has always led the pack with pro-Mullah disinformation.
As for Cole's statement about Ahmadi-Nejad never saying he wanted Israel removed from the face of the earth, the Persian phrase (transliteration) is: "Israel bayad az nakhsh-e jahan hazv shavad" - that simple. Word for word this is "Israel - must - from - world map - be - deleted". No such idiom? Plain simple grammatical sentence.
There is a sudden surge in Europe to rehabilitate neo-Iran and Ahmadi-Nejad. Sadly encouraged by the USA at this point in our effort to bring them to the table.
What???? What???? Are you saying the Iranians already have four nukes? Please tell me that's NOT what you're saying...
The term would be "going for broke"? Is that what you mean? It seems to me the Iranians are much more rational - their showof nuttiness is just that - a show. While the North Koreans really are nuts. Then again if your system was used, and I was right, the Iranians would break away from the North Koreans - and that would be good... Oh, well. Nevermind.
The point is that since they are, in fact, behaving as allies against us on the world stage, we need to treat them as such.
If they are told in no uncertain terms that we view them as such, neither will be able do deny culpability in the actions of the other.
This creates check on their actions. It will also create diplomatic tension between them if they are not in perfect accord, as each will always have to wonder if the other will blink first in a confrontation sure to involve them both.
"I have a problem atributing this level of sophisticated thinking to Ahmadi-Nejad"
This sort of stuff is above Ahmadinejad. He doesn't make decisions like this independently. He'd need permission first.
That's exactly what I'm saying. In fact they have anywhere between eight and twelve but four are in nose cones and on mid-range Shahab 3 missiles.
Go to http://www.antimullah.com and read the article on Iran's nukes. There is a mention in some of the other articles.
"would need pesmission...."
"...need permission from Khamnei who is now under pressure from both the pro-Ahamdi-Nejad IRGC and Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, who is vying to replace Khamnei, dying of cancer."
He may be sick, (I don't know. He was rumored to be dying of cancer several years ago), but I don't believe he's incapcitated, and/or bending quite as much to the pressures of Yazdi as you do)
I think he's still in charge and calling the shots, and has plenty of his own loyal followers.
Thank you for the ping.
Even tho I am late in reading my pings, I have posted it on the WT thread.
I would be interested on your thoughts on the Chinese in Palestine as advisors......in post 417.
I pulled several searches, it looks interesting, but I have not gone back to work them through.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1650751/posts?page=508
Proof of the pudding will be in the eating, so to speak.
Khamenei may have loyal followers but they are so outgunned (literally speaking) by the IRGC elite forces who side with Ahmadi-Nejad that he is almost, I say almost, a puppet in the IRGC puppeteers hands.
At any point, A-N, who has already basically completed his palace coup, can rise and arrest both Khamenei and Rafsanjani for "corrupting Islam" and "dereliction of duty". The groundwork has been laid for this "putsch" and though the latter two may be wriggling and trying to regain some authority, they don't have any strike forces that can stand up to the IRGC.
So far it has not suited A-H and his group to remove the titular head and the major "old guard" clerics. Come November all this might change. (If we do not change everything a bit sooner, though our State Dept and the EU and MSM in both regions are heading in the direction of appeasement at present).
regards,
I do not know enough about this particular person to comment though Chinese activity worldwide - strategically and tactically is mind boggling. They have entrenched themselves in africa, specially oil and strategic metals regions, they control the ports at each end of every major shipping lane. they have taken over ports at the ends of canals like the Panama and water passageways.
BTW, about eight years or so a go there was a terrific world map that showed all the ports the Chinese controlled and the shipping lanes to/from those ports. I have never been able to find it again. though out of date by now to some degree it was an eye opener. If you ever run across it, I would love to have a copy.
I shall see if I can get any feedback on the Chinese operative who used to hang out with Arafart.
My point was : I don't believe a decision this major right now, is made by Ahmadinejad. (You may disagree.)
Khamenei may be replaced by Yazdi after the meeting in Nov., but Khamenei is still making these decisions now.
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