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I think the investigators and Nifong really believed it early on and they thought they had the goods. ...

Yep not unlike the Bryant case. They have a woman who says they/he did it. They have DNA. Well in this case it turns out they had no DNA for the players and in the Bryant case it turned out they had way more DNA than made a good case. I think it is natural when an investigator has a complaining witness and DNA to think early on this is a simple case.

I think it's reasonable to believe the 3 lineups and the 3 week delay were manifestations of the trouble she was having with the lineup.

There can be no other explannation for more than one lineup. Had she made a good ID on the 16 of March if she was presented a photo array or the 21st of March when she clearly was presented a photo array, then the photo array in April never would have taken place.

There are rumors on the internet that she ID one player early on. We shall see, but I doubt it. Had she, the police would have put the squeeze on that player to name the others. I also think he would have been indicted earlier.

We KNOW the investigators were getting Desperate.

Clearly in addition to the points you made, I learned this weekend that they sent a "sting" e-mail from one players account to other players pretending that a particular player was turning on the others. [I missed this part when it happened.] It did not work.

They would've suspected Finnerty right off the bat from his previous arrest that we've heard prosecutors say had similar traits to this alleged crime (Susan Filan for one).

Yeah, maybe we will eventually find out that they cued her in on Finnerty early on. I sort of doubt it because they would not want IDs that did not match the DNA and for the first two arrays they did not know what the DNA would say.

The other thing that he said to Defense attorney's when he refused to look at the alibi, photos and other exculpatory evidence was: I know more about this case, than you'll EVER know.

Yes and as I said on other threads, this statement is an admission of planning a crime in NC. This statement alone is a reason the judge should have ordered discovery rather than claim to believe that Nifong would voluntarily turn over what was required by law which is everything.

Nifong underestimated the continuing National attention to this case, because I think Nifong thought that he would give them a dose of the DURHAM JUSTICE that he regularly hands out and they'd have to live with it.

This is the one part I disagree with. I think:

1. Originally they thought they had a solid case.

2. The case drew feminazi, then race baiter attention just as it was falling apart and as the primary election approached.

3. Nifong was desperate to gain recognition over his more famous opponent who he had fired in spite. So he over promised before the election to win the black vote and had to indict. In fact he committed fraud by ordering the police to run photo arrays against the rules to be able to indict.

4. So now Nifong is stuck. He is trying, as Thomas Sowell said, "to cool the mark." But these players are being very very aggressive. His plan to let things cool for a year does not seem to be working well for him either. He keeps yelling at defense attorneys for having press conferences.

5. He knows he can not win his case. He can not win it in Durham. It will not be held in Durham. If he really wants the defense to stop having press conferences he has to signal he will drop the case if they are quiet for a month or two. A sudden lack of developments on this case might well be a signal that the charges will be dropped when things quiet down.

You make excellent points, but we'll have to disagree on your final point about Nifong possibly dropping the case.

Like the Cold War with Russia, the strategists were told to think like the Russians when predicting their plans.

I don't know if Nifong in his enclave of Durham sees the case realisticly. Durham has had 3 University protests against these boys and the electorate in the City is absolutely hostile towards the LAX players. I saw Nifong laughing in Court when Seligman's attorney mentioned his alibi. I've heard reports that Nifong speaking off the record is still very confident, just very upset.

And then, if the Change of Venue is not granted, Nifong has a real chance.

I think back to the Totally Unbelievable comment Nifong made
when asked about a report of the AV saying it was 20 men first and then 3. He said he wasn't aware of that, and he said if a statement like that was made, he didn't think it would be relevant. 20 men or 3 men - not relevant. I think that Nifong is out of touch with reality.

Maybe he had high hopes for this case and the National position in the Media or Politics following it. Dreams die Hard.

I don't think the defense attorneys would trust Nifong to follow through. Nifong is an amateur. They'd view it as a potential sucker-punch, and they'd be right, imo. Nifong is a yo-yo. He's a small-time guy who wants to be seen as a tough guy who's made his bones. He's not smart enough to quit while he's ahead and not press a short-term advantage, damn the consequences. If the defense was to lay low for a month or two, no matter any unspoken agreement by Nifong to drop the case in exchange for their quieting the case, Nifong is too unsophisticated to understand what a bad move it would be to renege and seize the moment for his own self-aggrandizement by pressing the advantage of their silence. Any prosecutor who would say that this defense team is afraid to go up against him is not capable of smart maneuvers. He takes the low raod anytime he comes to a fork in the road and has committed gaffe after gaffe in this case. He is not to be trusted because he is just too damn stupid to do the smart thing.