You make excellent points, but we'll have to disagree on your final point about Nifong possibly dropping the case.
Like the Cold War with Russia, the strategists were told to think like the Russians when predicting their plans.
I don't know if Nifong in his enclave of Durham sees the case realisticly. Durham has had 3 University protests against these boys and the electorate in the City is absolutely hostile towards the LAX players. I saw Nifong laughing in Court when Seligman's attorney mentioned his alibi. I've heard reports that Nifong speaking off the record is still very confident, just very upset.
And then, if the Change of Venue is not granted, Nifong has a real chance.
I think back to the Totally Unbelievable comment Nifong made
when asked about a report of the AV saying it was 20 men first and then 3. He said he wasn't aware of that, and he said if a statement like that was made, he didn't think it would be relevant. 20 men or 3 men - not relevant. I think that Nifong is out of touch with reality.
Maybe he had high hopes for this case and the National position in the Media or Politics following it. Dreams die Hard.
Since I told you I am an economist, it should not surprise you that I do better with rational, ie sane, behavior than irrational behavior. Sowell too is an economist, so we tend to see things the same way.
Of course maybe Nifong is in fact certifiable. Then Sowel and I are out of our element.