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I agree wholeheartedly - Eventually.

I think the investigators and Nifong really believed it early on and they thought they had the goods. Nifong's own words support what you are saying. The AV (not too bright) didn't do well on the early lineups and Nifong said more than once that DNA is bulletproof and Eyewitness testimony is not as reliable. If she had picked out 3 unequivocably and emphatically, Nifong wouldn't have made that statement. It's unusual to have 3 lineups or 3 lineup attempts, and it frekin' outrageous to have an ID in a felony case like this 3 weeks after the crime.

I think it's reasonable to believe the 3 lineups and the 3 week delay were manifestations of the trouble she was having with the lineup.

We KNOW the investigators were getting Desperate. We know that they, AFTER the first 2 INDICTMENTS were signed, breached protocol and attempted to question the players without their legal counsel present. The day after the indictments were signed, they're going out and trying to get through, arguably, unethical means basic information they should've had before signing off on the indictments. So they were desperate, that's why I say it's no great leap to envision them showing her pictures of the guys THEY suspected beforehand and planting a seed in her head.

They would've suspected Finnerty right off the bat from his previous arrest that we've heard prosecutors say had similar traits to this alleged crime (Susan Filan for one).

If we go back and listen to Nifong's statements and off-the-record or hypothetical remarks to reporters, and things that he said on the Radio and then were reported on Cable shows by local Radio hosts (Kevin Miller, etc.), if you listen to that with a timeline next to it, it becomes very apparent what is happening. You see him very confident in the DNA for days and then he suddenly reverses himself. He talks about Condoms for the first time. He mentions the false stats that don't apply to GANG-rapes.

I think Nifong thought these guys were going to fold and come asking him for a plea deal somewhere down the line. I even think that Nifong interpreted the Defense's statements as Bravado and ego.

I saw where you - JLS - had mentioned Nifong's famous comment that they (the defense) doesn't want to go up against him or face him in court. The other thing that he said to Defense attorney's when he refused to look at the alibi, photos and other exculpatory evidence was: I know more about this case, than you'll EVER know.

Nifong underestimated the continuing National attention to this case, because I think Nifong thought that he would give them a dose of the DURHAM JUSTICE that he regularly hands out and they'd have to live with it. The Light from the National coverage of this case (remember the defense attorneys opting to make EVERYTHING on the record?) may prevent Nifong and the Judges from using the standard DURHAM JUSTICE to bash the defendant's heads in. I think that is what Nifong was counting on all along. The uneven playing field, the relationship of the DA and Judges, the financial burden on the defendant, the costly delay in the case being heard, etc. Nifong's Pompous and overconfident attitude can be attributed to his underestimation of the media coverage and the financial ability of the defendants, in my opinion.

I think the investigators and Nifong really believed it early on and they thought they had the goods. ...

Yep not unlike the Bryant case. They have a woman who says they/he did it. They have DNA. Well in this case it turns out they had no DNA for the players and in the Bryant case it turned out they had way more DNA than made a good case. I think it is natural when an investigator has a complaining witness and DNA to think early on this is a simple case.

I think it's reasonable to believe the 3 lineups and the 3 week delay were manifestations of the trouble she was having with the lineup.

There can be no other explannation for more than one lineup. Had she made a good ID on the 16 of March if she was presented a photo array or the 21st of March when she clearly was presented a photo array, then the photo array in April never would have taken place.

There are rumors on the internet that she ID one player early on. We shall see, but I doubt it. Had she, the police would have put the squeeze on that player to name the others. I also think he would have been indicted earlier.

We KNOW the investigators were getting Desperate.

Clearly in addition to the points you made, I learned this weekend that they sent a "sting" e-mail from one players account to other players pretending that a particular player was turning on the others. [I missed this part when it happened.] It did not work.

They would've suspected Finnerty right off the bat from his previous arrest that we've heard prosecutors say had similar traits to this alleged crime (Susan Filan for one).

Yeah, maybe we will eventually find out that they cued her in on Finnerty early on. I sort of doubt it because they would not want IDs that did not match the DNA and for the first two arrays they did not know what the DNA would say.

The other thing that he said to Defense attorney's when he refused to look at the alibi, photos and other exculpatory evidence was: I know more about this case, than you'll EVER know.

Yes and as I said on other threads, this statement is an admission of planning a crime in NC. This statement alone is a reason the judge should have ordered discovery rather than claim to believe that Nifong would voluntarily turn over what was required by law which is everything.

Nifong underestimated the continuing National attention to this case, because I think Nifong thought that he would give them a dose of the DURHAM JUSTICE that he regularly hands out and they'd have to live with it.

This is the one part I disagree with. I think:

1. Originally they thought they had a solid case.

2. The case drew feminazi, then race baiter attention just as it was falling apart and as the primary election approached.

3. Nifong was desperate to gain recognition over his more famous opponent who he had fired in spite. So he over promised before the election to win the black vote and had to indict. In fact he committed fraud by ordering the police to run photo arrays against the rules to be able to indict.

4. So now Nifong is stuck. He is trying, as Thomas Sowell said, "to cool the mark." But these players are being very very aggressive. His plan to let things cool for a year does not seem to be working well for him either. He keeps yelling at defense attorneys for having press conferences.

5. He knows he can not win his case. He can not win it in Durham. It will not be held in Durham. If he really wants the defense to stop having press conferences he has to signal he will drop the case if they are quiet for a month or two. A sudden lack of developments on this case might well be a signal that the charges will be dropped when things quiet down.