I agree wholeheartedly - Eventually.
I think the investigators and Nifong really believed it early on and they thought they had the goods. Nifong's own words support what you are saying. The AV (not too bright) didn't do well on the early lineups and Nifong said more than once that DNA is bulletproof and Eyewitness testimony is not as reliable. If she had picked out 3 unequivocably and emphatically, Nifong wouldn't have made that statement. It's unusual to have 3 lineups or 3 lineup attempts, and it frekin' outrageous to have an ID in a felony case like this 3 weeks after the crime.
I think it's reasonable to believe the 3 lineups and the 3 week delay were manifestations of the trouble she was having with the lineup.
We KNOW the investigators were getting Desperate. We know that they, AFTER the first 2 INDICTMENTS were signed, breached protocol and attempted to question the players without their legal counsel present. The day after the indictments were signed, they're going out and trying to get through, arguably, unethical means basic information they should've had before signing off on the indictments. So they were desperate, that's why I say it's no great leap to envision them showing her pictures of the guys THEY suspected beforehand and planting a seed in her head.
They would've suspected Finnerty right off the bat from his previous arrest that we've heard prosecutors say had similar traits to this alleged crime (Susan Filan for one).
If we go back and listen to Nifong's statements and off-the-record or hypothetical remarks to reporters, and things that he said on the Radio and then were reported on Cable shows by local Radio hosts (Kevin Miller, etc.), if you listen to that with a timeline next to it, it becomes very apparent what is happening. You see him very confident in the DNA for days and then he suddenly reverses himself. He talks about Condoms for the first time. He mentions the false stats that don't apply to GANG-rapes.
I think Nifong thought these guys were going to fold and come asking him for a plea deal somewhere down the line. I even think that Nifong interpreted the Defense's statements as Bravado and ego.
I saw where you - JLS - had mentioned Nifong's famous comment that they (the defense) doesn't want to go up against him or face him in court. The other thing that he said to Defense attorney's when he refused to look at the alibi, photos and other exculpatory evidence was: I know more about this case, than you'll EVER know.
Nifong underestimated the continuing National attention to this case, because I think Nifong thought that he would give them a dose of the DURHAM JUSTICE that he regularly hands out and they'd have to live with it. The Light from the National coverage of this case (remember the defense attorneys opting to make EVERYTHING on the record?) may prevent Nifong and the Judges from using the standard DURHAM JUSTICE to bash the defendant's heads in. I think that is what Nifong was counting on all along. The uneven playing field, the relationship of the DA and Judges, the financial burden on the defendant, the costly delay in the case being heard, etc. Nifong's Pompous and overconfident attitude can be attributed to his underestimation of the media coverage and the financial ability of the defendants, in my opinion.
Nifong says at the 11 April 2006 Forum at NCCU that he will take the case to the grand jury as soon as she IDs someone.
So Nifong had known for a week who she picked when he said this. Did the same investigators conduct all 3 ID lineups?
[Your scenario sounds right on the money]
You know I wonder what photos where used in the first lineup of the players. Even if there was fillers it seems unfair to use photos of players that are all wearing the same shirt-jersey. It seems to me like they would stick out like a sore thumb.