I don't think it will go to trial....and I also think NiFong will be disbarred. Like I said early today, I wouldn't be surprised if the DA has a mild heart attack and disappears (more or less). (The Patches routine). I think we'll see a new DA.....real soon.
I'm still wondering where the police chief is in all this.
I agree it won't go to trial if the AV refuses to testify. Otherwise I think you're being too optimistic.
Nifong won't be disbarred. The most that might happen to Nifong is a reprimand for unethical behavior for his dealings with the press, but I highly doubt even that will happen. I don't think he is in danger of even an ethics reprimand for either (a) instructing the police investigators to ignore the NC photo lineup guidelines or (b) having the police attempt to interview lacrosse players who he knows are represented by counsel without informing such counsel.
He is in no danger of being found liable for defamation. And unless there is a smoking gun-type statement that a police officer or someone else inside the investigation will testify to, he is in no danger of being found guilty of or liable for malicious prosecution.
The worst that could happen to Nifong is that he loses the case at trial (assuming the AV goes forward and testifies). Apart from being a laughingstock and held in contempt by most of the other lawyers in the state.