Posted on 03/08/2006 10:14:53 AM PST by Incorrigible
BY CHUCK McCUTCHEON And DRU SEFTON
For most people, filling out an NCAA tournament pool entry means checking the college basketball teams' records and bracket seedings. But for some, it involves complex computer modeling or determining which school has the toughest mascot.
Rivaling the Super Bowl in wagering popularity, the tournament's March Madness has spawned a host of unusual ways to pick winners, from the mathematical to the whimsical.
Academics employ statistical modeling systems and publish papers with titles like "A Logistic Regression/Markov Chain Model for NCAA Basketball." They are in demand this time of year.
"I've received e-mails such as, `Please, I'm in an office pool but I don't know anything about basketball -- can you help me and just send me some picks so I won't look like an idiot?"' said Edward Kaplan, a Yale University management sciences professor.
After years of losing in pools, Kaplan created a model that incorporates a range of team data -- including Las Vegas odds, scoring statistics and strength of schedule -- to make forecasts.
"The modeling really helps evaluate these trade-offs in a way that is just too hard for a person to do," Kaplan said. "After all, there are 9.22 quintillion -- that's 9.22 billion billion -- possible outcomes to the tournament."
Kaplan's efforts enabled him to become one of the top finishers among 95,000 entrants in CBS' SportsLine.com pool. Though he hasn't updated his work much in recent years, he has inspired other scholars to pick up the ball.
Cary, N.C., software designer Tom Adams set up a Web site, Poologic.com, using a system similar to Kaplan's. Adams estimates he has helped visitors win at least $250,000, asking only that they donate some winnings to cancer research.
Like others who study the tournament, Adams said bettors shouldn't always pick top-seeded teams, especially in hugely popular pools. In those cases, "betting on a contrarian champion is basically the optimal strategy," he said.
One way to find a contrarian is to look for a team that has lost games by a few points, said Joel Sokol, a Georgia Tech engineering professor and "sports nut" with his own computer model.
"The prevailing wisdom is if you're a good team, you find a way to win the close games," said Sokol, who has taken first or second in various office pools. "But that's not what the data says -- the data says those games are random, and a team that has won more of them might be ripe for an upset."
Not everyone is as scientific.
Freelance writer D.J. Gallo of Harrisburg, Pa., who runs the satiric site SportsPickle.com, wrote a humorous piece featuring an NCAA bracket consisting of the people "who you think will beat you in your pool this year." It included "the liberal Democrat friend who refuses to pick any team from a red state" and "the friend who accidentally filled out and submitted the women's bracket."
In an interview, Gallo explained his inspiration: "I watch a lot of college basketball, and a lot of my friends are the same way. But then we enter pools and we always end up losing to someone who on the surface knows nothing about college basketball."
Among those fitting that description is Gallo's sister, whom he said bases selections on a preference for uniform colors. He also knew a woman from Scotland who prevailed by picking teams "whose names sounded cool."
Another self-described novice, Seattle software developer Steve Lacey, said he has successfully used a variation on that approach. When choosing between two teams, Lacey -- a British transplant -- has gone with the one he has heard of, defaulting to the higher seed when both are a mystery.
This year, Lacey plans to modify his strategy to select the school playing closest to its home court. "The big problem is, I've now heard of many teams," he said.
Meanwhile, John Gasaway of Minneapolis, who runs the weblog Big Ten Wonk, recalled an even more creative method. When Gasaway attended the University of Illinois in the 1980s, he said, "My weird friend Phil" used team mascots to make his picks.
They would debate, for instance, "who'd win between the (Notre Dame) Fighting Irish and the (Georgetown) Hoyas. What was a Hoya anyway, and could it beat up a Fighting Irish?"
Did it work?
"Oh, no," Gasaway said. "But it was fun to do. Phil was always trounced the first weekend."
March 8, 2006
(Chuck McCutcheon and Dru Sefton can be contacted at chuck.mccutcheon@newhouse.com and dru.sefton@newhouse.com.)
Not for commercial use. For educational and discussion purposes only.
What are the chances that this paper was written just as an excuse to get the math department to support the university NCAA pool?
The Blue Haired old lady at the office always wins.
Did she mention that her son is an odds maker in Vegas? ;~))
I'm trying to determine what makes this article an editorial. Can you help?
Everything published at the Newhouse News site is considered (by them) as editorial content.
I saw a bizarre program on Comedy Central called "Travel Sick." In one episode, the host attempted to win the Romanian Lotto with numbers selected from a bucket of numbered hog testicles.
I suppose if one could find thirty-two willing hogs....
OK, but in the future, I grant you the power to re-classify them. Even when they appear on the editorial page (like after the home team wins the Super Bowl) sports columns are not properly editorials.
LOL!!
It's a good thing I like you!
:-)
You are Incorrigible!
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