Posted on 02/16/2006 6:34:26 AM PST by veronica
LOS ANGELES (AP) - Bad Academy Awards puns are flying. There's the ``Brokeback backlash'' ... the little film that ``crashed'' the party ... the one about ``Brokeback Mountain'' peaking too early.
While the cowboy love story ``Brokeback Mountain'' has been established as a solid favorite for the best-picture Oscar, the ensemble drama ``Crash'' has an ardent following and some late-season momentum that could make it a surprise winner.
When there's a clear Oscar front-runner, that film almost always goes home with the big trophy, but upsets do happen and late-surging films have pulled off come-from-behind wins.
Just look back to the 1998 awards season.
``The year of `Saving Private Ryan,' everybody was certain it was a lock,'' said film historian Leonard Maltin. ``People thought it was a sure thing to win best picture given the subject matter (D-Day heroics) and the people behind it (Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks), until the middle of December.''
That's when a little film called ``Shakespeare in Love'' showed up. Oscar voters, along with everyone else, fell in love with it, and while Spielberg won best director, ``Shakespeare in Love'' grabbed the top prize.
The previous 77 Oscar ceremonies have had their share of unexpected twists, mostly in the acting categories. The best-picture announcement often has proven an anticlimactic no-brainer at the end of the evening, yet a handful of unanticipated winners have shaken things up:
For best picture of 1948, the poignant drama ``Johnny Belinda,'' a homegrown Hollywood production, seemed to have the edge, only to lose to a British upstart, Laurence Olivier's ``Hamlet.''
Three years later, the song-and-dance romance ``An American in Paris'' pulled off a best-picture stunner over dramatic heavyweights ``A Place in the Sun'' and ``A Streetcar Named Desire.''
The next year, Gary Cooper's Western ``High Noon'' looked as though it would ride into the winner's circle, but the splashy circus tale ``The Greatest Show on Earth'' came out on top.
The 1968 best-picture award went the musical route again as ``Oliver!'' became an upset winner over the more popular musical ``Funny Girl'' and the palace-intrigue saga ``The Lion in Winter.''
And one of Oscar's biggest underdogs, the Olympics tale ``Chariots of Fire,'' ran off with best picture for 1981 over the historical drama ``Reds'' and the family story ``On Golden Pond.''
This time around, most signs point to ``Brokeback Mountain'' - Ang Lee's tale of two rugged Western men (Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal) in a doomed love affair - as the likely best-picture champ.
Since it debuted in December, ``Brokeback Mountain'' has swept through awards season, winning best drama at the Golden Globes, snagging honors from top critics groups and earning prizes from guilds representing directors, writers and producers.
The film leads the Oscars with eight nominations, positioning it as the one to beat come March 5.
``Brokeback Mountain'' has followed the same release pattern as 2004's Oscar champ, ``Million Dollar Baby,'' starting in a handful of theaters and gradually expanding into wide release and box-office success on the strength of its awards buzz.
But ``Crash'' grabbed the prize for best overall cast performance at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, surprising some Oscar forecasters. Because of its supposed momentum, ``Brokeback Mountain'' had been considered a favorite there, too.
After the fact, though, the SAG honor made sense for ``Crash'' - its huge cast and multiple story lines are the virtual definition of an ensemble film. Directed by Paul Haggis, a 2004 Oscar nominee for the screenplay of ``Million Dollar Baby,'' ``Crash'' features Sandra Bullock, Don Cheadle, Brendan Fraser, Terrence Howard, Thandie Newton and supporting-actor nominee Matt Dillon among dozens of characters whose lives intersect over a chaotic 36-hour stretch in Los Angeles.
``The reason we believe we have a great chance of actually winning the best-picture Oscar is because people are passionate about the movie,'' said Tom Ortenberg, president of Lionsgate Films, which released ``Crash.'' ``With all due respect to the other best-picture nominees, all of which are terrific and of great merit, there's a sense that people admire and respect the other nominees, but they are passionate about `Crash.'''
``Crash'' took an unusual route to the Oscars, emerging out of the 2004 Toronto International Film Festival, where Lionsgate snapped up the film. The movie hit theaters last May and came out on DVD in September, defying conventional wisdom that films released early in the year get forgotten by Oscar time.
Lionsgate took the singular step of providing about 100,000 DVD copies of ``Crash'' to SAG members to ensure that as many as possible had seen the film before voting for the guild's awards. Distributors generally provide about 20,000 to 30,000 DVD copies of awards-contending films to academy members, key critics groups and voters in other Hollywood honors, but this was the first time a group as big as SAG was blanketed with DVDs of a movie.
Tom O'Neil of the awards Web site theenvelope.com said the SAG win was a sign that ``Crash'' could be picking up steam as a potential best-picture party-crasher among the Oscars' 5,800 voters.
``Brokeback Mountain'' has become a cultural touchstone for Hollywood depictions of gay love affairs, yet the hubbub over the film may be growing stale as Oscar voters cast their final ballots, O'Neil said. And while ``Brokeback Mountain'' has become a solid box-office success, the gay theme may be off-putting to some Oscar voters, he said.
``Statistically, we know the vast majority of Oscar voters must be straight if they're at all representative of the general population,'' O'Neil said. ``As much as they admire this movie, it may not feel like it's their movie. If there is homophobia in Hollywood, it could manifest itself there. Or they could just be sick of gay cowboy jokes.''
James Schamus - a producer on ``Brokeback Mountain'' and co-president of Focus Features, which released the film - declined to comment on his movie's front-runner status or the prospects of ``Crash'' becoming an underdog spoiler.
Schamus, previously involved with such Oscar contenders as ``The Pianist'' and Lee's ``Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,'' said it's impossible to calculate a movie's awards fate based on such insubstantial notions as ``momentum and peaking.''
``That allows us to actually pretend we have some clue of what's going on,'' Schamus said. ``But if you go back and do a statistical analysis of all that talk about momentum and whatever, then line it up against the outcome of the Oscars themselves, you'll find the relationship of those things is completely and utterly serendipitous. There's no cause and effect. There's no science to it.''
And of course, there are three other worthy films in the best-picture race, the Truman Capote drama ``Capote,'' the Edward R. Murrow tale ``Good Night, and Good Luck'' and the assassination thriller ``Munich.''
Along with ``Crash,'' any one of those movies could pull off a win over ``Brokeback Mountain,'' Maltin said.
``Anyone who says that someone is a sure bet for an Oscar is a fool,'' Maltin said. ``There's no such thing as a sure thing, least of all in a five-way vote.''
That may be his political agenda, but it is not reflected in the movie, unlike Clooney, Spielberg, etc., nor in his personal relationships.
"While the cowboy love story"
I find it amusing how these people just can't bring themselves to say "the gay sheepherder love story"
not that there would be anything wrong with that! ;)
They're trying to make it sound like there's competition so more people will watch it. I'm done with these gay coronation ceremonies.
...which would hardly make it a definitive indicator for the Oscars. However, I wouldn't mind seeing this win over Brokeback, if only to stick it in the eye of the critics. I only remember bad reviews for this movie.
And I didn't know that Brendan Fraser was in it, so I'll have to rent a copy now. Fraser's a pretty reliable actor, even when he's in a crappy movie. (George of the Jungle would've been pointless without him -- like the sequel was. And even the Looney Tunes movie was less awful because of his presence.)
TS
I could live with "Crash" winning, it was an excellent movie -- an amazing character study.
:)
Now, what I need to know about them, I'll get from listening to Drudge, since he's so fascinated by celebrity antics.
I just didn't want to be in the theater with all those fawning teenage girls drooling over Leo. The movie loses something on the small screen. Yeah, the tacked-on love story is lame, but the cinematography and the technology involved made it worth watching.
TS
Gays already have their awards show, it's called "The Tony Awards."
Not to mention Kubrick's "2001: A Space Odyssey", which wasn't even nominated! Now it's the #17 greatest film in history on the AFI list, if I remember correctly.
Was he better than Joaquin Phoenix in walk the Line?
I agree. Ang Lee movies look good, that's about all I can muster on the positive side. I'll check out that movie you mentioned. Thanks!
Lee's best was Eat Drink Man Woman, imho.
Performance by an actor in a leading role
At least they didn't put Felicity Hoffman in this category. It's between Hoffman (Capote) and Ledger (Brokeback). I was thinking it would be a Brokeback sweep to give it the big push that it needs for DVD sales, but I think they'll share the wealth and give it to Hoffman. "Walk the Line" is being snubbed totally.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
George Clooney's politics beats out Gyllenhaal's homosexuality.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Felicity Huffman wins by default because "Walk the Line" is being snubbed. The rationale will be "Hello? It's Reese Witherspoon." (So they'll go with a Desperate Housewife). (sidenote: the movie probably would have been more interesting if the lead was a male actor.)
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Didn't see any of them. (Actually, I haven't seen anything from any of the categories, so far, but you really don't need to to know how the voting will go. You only need to see them to know how they should go.) The women in Brokeback are an afterthought, but the actors won't win, so Michelle Williams will win. Rachel Weisz, however, will be the hottest one of the five there that night.
Best animated feature film of the year
I only saw "Corpse Bride" but I'm thinking "Howl's Moving Castle" wins. I don't know why, but I am. (I have to rent W&G.)
Achievement in art direction
Achievement in cinematography
Achievement in costume design
Achievement in makeup
Achievement in sound editing
Achievement in sound mixing
Achievement in visual effects
I have come to believe that the technical folks actually value their craft more than their politics, so I won't hazard many guesses because I've seen few of the films involved. King Kong will probably be tossed one and Geisha, which had been an Oscar contender not long ago, will probably get the costumes. Makeup will go to Star Wars or Narnia (which had nice period costumes, too, but wasn't nominated).
Achievement in directing
Ang Lee, straight off his directing of "The Hulk" is a shoe-in. ("Straigh off", heh heh, I crack me up.)
Best documentary feature
“March of the Penguins” was such a wonderful little picture that it probably won't win. At least there isn't a Moore film in the category. I don't really know the other movies in the category, so no further info.
Best documentary short subject
Based on the title alone, the winner is “God Sleeps in Rwanda”.
Achievement in film editing
Brokeback isn't nominated, so they'll toss this one to Munich. Walk the Line will be snubbed.
Best foreign language film of the year
Italy usually does well in this category, so that's “Don’t Tell”, but don't count out “Tsotsi” from South Africa.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
Another “Brokeback Mountain” win
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
For once, I haven't been hearing the songs on the radio, so I know little about them individually. Gut-check tells me to go with the pair of Dolly Parton and Transamerica.
Best motion picture of the year
Duh. “Brokeback Mountain” will repeat from the Director category.
Best animated short film
No information. Not political.
Best live action short film
No information. Not political.
Adapted screenplay
“Brokeback Mountain”. Granted, there's a lot of PC crap to spread the manure around, which might allow for a surprise.
Original screenplay
"Good Night, and Good Luck.” Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov is just about a lock. It'll be funny if Clooney loses out to Syriana, but they wouldn't do that to him.
And that's the way it'll be, Oscar Night 2006. z
I've even GOT the move. Have had for years.
Won't watch DiCrappio
"Raging Bull" is considered by many critics to be the best film of the 1980s. didn't win an Oscar. (Don't recall if it was nominated.)
He was good in The Aviator. The last movie I've really enjoyed.
I should care, why?
What BS. A movie that "doesn't take sides" is advocating either an amoral approach to the issue or shrugging its metaphorical shoulders and saying "That's life," which I knew already.
A movie like this, which says "We're all racists/None of us are racists/Some of us are racists" comes off as "objective" just because it says "Hey, blacks are racist, too!" which appeals to some, I guess. But it's the type of film, from what I hear, that "informs" the audience of things they already know. It's a shock to some but yes, everyone with an iota of intelligence KNOWS there are all kinds of racists in all colors--a movie having the "guts" to say what everyone already knows and admits isn't saying anything, it's doing what Hollywood tripe always does--it poses like it's saying something daring, when in fact what it's saying is completely conventional.
And for those who say I shouldn't be writing about a movie I haven't seen, I'm merely commenting on why I'm not seeing it, and not having seen the movie hasn't stopped anyone from talking here about Brokeback Mountain, another thing I won't see.
What's funny about BBM is that every lib or gay who talks about it insists "It's NOT a 'gay' movie!" Yet if it loses it WILL be a 'gay' movie, and these same people will be screaming about how the Oscars rejected a 'gay' movie.
I think so. By a hair. But Hoffman is an actors actor, who has had a long career playing off-beat roles brilliantly, and I suspect he will be rewarded for that. Check him out "Happiness" sometime. Joaquin Phoenix's time will come, Oscar-wise.
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