It probably has been plugged a thousand times but I'm not going through seven thousand posts.. but...
http://www.votefortheworst.com/index.html
The best guide to AI...
The women were underwhelming the night before. Will the men do us proud ?
IN SUM, Let's put it this way -- except for a a couple of performances, the answer is MOSTLY NO. Most of them were playing it safe and a lot of them were singing songs that were already performed before and did not make us forget the former performers. Not too impressive IMHO.
One of the given things about American Idol is the tendency to want to be in the prediction game. I mean how quickly do all of us jump to conclusions about contestants ? Last week, for example, a lot of folks were declaring that Katahrine McPhee and Ace Young were certain to be locks in the top 12.
But what do we base this on ? A few audition snippets hand-selected by the show's producers and a single live performance ?
That would be like declaring Nate Robinson to be the next NBA superstarto replace Kobe Bryant because at 5'8" he was a spectacular dunker and won the NBA slam dunk competition. But look what a stinker his team turned out to be !
The boys picked up right where the American Idol girls left off and they have a lot to live up to While there were several ok performances, it was starting to look like NOT ONE was even going to get close to approaching some of the performances delivered last season on American Idol at this stage of the game. Last season, we had Mario Vasquez tearing the screen up with I LOVE MUSIC, Anwar Robinson blowing us away with his great version of WHAT A WONDERFUL WORLD, and Bo Bice wowing us with his incredible rendition of WHIPPING POST.
We did not have such WOW performances last night save one.
However, the final performance of this week's semifinal round made it clear that at least one guy has the goods to win it all this year. Yes folks, I'm talking about the second coming of Bon Jovi ----- Chris Daughtry. THIS MAN HAS BEEN *CONSISTENT* FROM AUDITION TO THE FIRST TWO PERFORMANCES. Remember the flaming background in his first performance last week ? WELL, ISN'T THAT APPROPRIATE ? HE WAS BLAZING !!!
Let's not mince words folks. CHRIS DAUGHTRY LEFT EVERYONE ELSE IN THE DUST TONIGHT.
So, let's go on with the show....The unenviable task of going first and setting the expectations for the night sky high is none other than my man -- Taylor Hicks.
Yes, Taylor Hicks, the grey-haired '70s throwback who could pass for Michael McDonald's long-lost son. Would Taylor do Ray Charles ? Would he blow us away like he does in his southern soul fires circuit for which he is well known for ? ALAS AND ALAK NO ! Like Katharine McPhee yesterday he didn't do much to make his performance memorable. He chooses a LAME Commodore song -- Easy Like Sunday Morning --- which even if sang by Lionel Ritchie himself on this venue would probably underwhelm and well what do you know ? HE DOES.
All three judges concur that it wasn’t one of Taylor’s best performances ( DUH !!!). However, it was still one of the better performances of the night. ( which is not saying much ). What annoys me is his continues tendency to shout WHOOO mid-song ! CUT IT OUT MAN ! Now, now, before all you fans of the gray-haired dude send me nasty e-mails, I'll admit Taylor's ''Easy'' was good.
But let's not sugar-coat it ----- his performance lacked the show-stopping originality we've come to expect from the competition's quirkiest competitor who has given America the unprecedented -- WHAT"s HE GONNA DO NEXT -- anticipation never before seen in this competition.
Look folks, I have heard the self-produced CD of Taylor Hicks entitled UNDER THE RADAR, including his awesone ( and that's a word I seldom use ) version of GEORGIA ON MY MIND. THIS MAN CAN BE INCREDIBLE IF HE WANTS TO BE, singing like a man possessed by his music ( YOU'VE GOTTA HEAR HIM TO UNDERSTAND WHAT I'M SAYING ).
But what's happened to him tonight ? He's totally mellowed down, like a Lion that has been de-clawed.
Taylor, Taylor,Taylor. Do you know what your song choice and resulting performance reminds me of ? How to put it ?
You remind me of a great figure skater who we've seen done triple and a half axles three times consecutively. You are now in the singing equivalent of the Olympics and we expected you to do that awesomeroutine you've always done. Instead, what did you give us ? Two double axles and nothing else. WHAT WERE YOU THINKING ? Who's been advising you ? SHOW HIM/HER THE DOOR.
Where's GEORGIA ON MY MIND ? Where's Sam Cooke ? ( Gedeon essentially stole your song from you and did well on it ).
What a let down ! Watching your performance is like anticipating the climactic Empire State Building scene in King Kong only to be told that it ain't going to be shown ! BUMMER !
I'm sure your fans will pull you through, if only because there were at least 3 or 4 less stellar performances last night. But if you fail to give us GEORGIA next week ( as Nikko did last season, and your recorded version outshines his by a hundred miles ), then we know you're not in this to win or wow.
Next week is your last chance before the final 12 kicks in and you get sucked in to those lame theme nights where you're forced to sing the songs of someone else's composition or Disco. You can choose your own genre now. SO DO IT !!! Give us "GEORGIA" DAMMIT !
The one thing that will ensure Taylor's slide to the top 12 is his MEMORABILITY -----> the hair ( giving him the monicker -- "Gray
Charles) , the harmonica, the "I'm just really happy to be here" attitude and the BLUES voice. He'll need to step it up vocally if he wants to win, but he shouldn't have a problem advancing in this undistinguished field tonight.
AND DID I SPY BO BICE AMONG THE AUDIENCE CLAPPING AFTER TAYLOR's PERFORMANCE ? YES I DID. He's probably cheering his fellow Alabaman and co-performer in the club circuit on. Hey Bo, at this stage in the competition, you blew us all away with your unforgetable rendition of the Allman Brother's classic WHIPPING POST. Whip Taylor back in shape and tell him to sing GEORGIA for us !
Who's next ? AHHH --- Mr. Tumnus look-alike, my Virginia Jewish man ---- Eliott Yamin, one of the many supposedly unknowns among the men. Eliott again, reminds me of an Amish farmer but if you look at his picture and compare it with the FAWN in the Narnia movie, there is a marked similarity. Eliott continues to hedge his bets by reminding everyone that Simon used the word : "POTENTIAL" to describe his ability to be the best singer in this competition. And why does Eliott continually advertise the fact that he is a very experienced KARAOKE singer ? Is that good ? Does that give hope for stardom to karaoke singers out there ?
Elliott sings --- “Moody’s Mood For Love.” ( by James Moody).
Randy Jackson gives Elliott a standing ovation for his performance which overstated the case a bit. But the judges' praises at least gives him a head start as he looks to chase down the front-runners. Paula Abdul says Stevie Wonder would be proud (but why would Stevie care a whit considering this is a James Moody song ?). However, Simon Cowell says “you can’t win a show like this with a song like that.”
Well how to put it ?
Eliott is like the Bush economy when Dubya took over. You know, people expected the great depression -- the worst economy since Herbert Hoover. Instead, the economy keeps getting better and better resulting in an unemployment rate of 4.7% and a GDP that tops every other G8 nation. In other words, you are expecting bad things from him but he continues to confound and be "MIS-UNDERESTIMATED" because of his bad teeth and pointy ears.
Who is next on the plate ? None other than --- Ace Young, the Kevin Sorbo look-alike with the come-hither look that threatens to eclipse Constantine.
I've always said this folks --- YOU DO JUDGE A BOOK BY IT's COVER. ADMIT IT GIRLS ---- YOU DO, YOU DO, YOU DO. You're keeping him in the top 12 *BECAUSE* of what nature has endowed him, not necessarilly because he's the best singer in this competition.
Ace sings “If I’m Not Made For You.” by David Bedingfield. Well how to put it ? His performance pleased the judges because it showed off his vocal range (including a falsetto). If this were a figure skating competition, he would have gotten a high score on technical merits, since there were a lot of key changes to handle and he was quite adept at handling it.
Randy says “I think you sing better than you let on.” Paula Abdul ( who tries not to say anything bad and secretly has a crush on Ace) says “I really think that this is another good week for you.” However, Simon Cowell says “I think you struggle with the song tonight, and I think you are going to be very disappointed when you hear your vocal back on that.”
OK folks, lets put it this way --- Ace will be SIGNED to a record or acting deal no matter what. The guy can sing ( even when you listen to the audio ), so no taking it away from him. His first performance last week was better. But this one wasn't really as bad as Simon says it is.
However, this performance didn't do much to excite the audience, and the whole package was the dullest effort Young has offered thus far ( YAWN).
Hey Ace -- how's about giving us some CARELESS WHISPER by Wham ? HUH ! Sign me up as your unofficial adviser, better still, log on to the American Idol thread of Free Republic to get some good advise !!!
All I can say is ----> If this was the first time the audience had seen Young, he might be in trouble ( but then again , no. His looks will give him the teeny bopper girl's vote and a built-in immunity ) . It's unfair though because I think the FOX powers that be have given him WAY TOO MUCH TV time compared to say Gedeon or Eliott. He's not going anywhere out of the competition.
Ahhh ---- here comes GUY SMILEY --- AKA Gedeon McKinney. The kid with the perma-grin GLUED on his face. Was he the model for Mr. Potato Head > ( and did I spell the word right Mr. Quayle ? ). Gedeon is one of the four teenagers left on the men's side of the aisle, but he's unique among that quartet because he consistently sounds more like a professional than someone auditioning for a high-school autumn musical.
Gedeon must have watched Tayor's audition because he stole the song Taylor should have sang tonight instead of that lame Commodore song ---- Sam Cooke's "A Change is Gonna Come," a good decision. Gedeon surprisingly did justice to it !!!
I just kinda wish Motown were more in vogue nowadays, that would put Gedeon right on top. Gedeon could probably help us channel the spirit of Barry Gordy.
Do the judges like it ? Randy Jackson says “You are a really great natural performer.” Paula Abdul says “You are a performer I feel we will see for decades.” Simon Cowell says “You are a funny little thing,” and adds “I thought it was a very good performance tonight.”
Gedoen’s FYI, is a straight "A" student and I was told graduated VALEDICTORIAN in his school.
Simon called him overconfident. Well confidence is a good thing, if you have the talent to back it up. This kid shows he has it.
Now here comes my neighbor and fellow Long-Islander -- the man-child -- Kevin Covais.
There are 4 male youngsters in this competition. They are all battling for the coveted teenager-who-stays-around-a-lot-longer-than-his-talent-would-indicate-because-people-like-him position.
Kevin has a AWWW factor with him ( a mystical force striking most women with motherly, auntie and sisterly instincts in this country ). Therefore, he has has as good a chance as any of the 4 teens of landing the coveted 6th spot. Kevin represents everyone's kid brother or non-threatening next-door neighbor. If this show were a sitcom, he'd be the "normal" version of Steve Urkel and you'd be rooting for him to get the girl he's pining for.
In his video clip that he's been getting a lot of fan mail from 12- and 13-year-old girls. Well duh !!! Do you expect teens to really fall for you ? I don't know if that is the fan base demographic he's looking for, but those young girls are tech-savy nowadays and believe me, Long Islanders can text-message their votes faster than their parents can and have plenty of time in their idle hands.
So, Kevin sings Marvin Gaye's classic --- "I Heard it Through the Grapevine". How to put it ? Let's just say that I won't be forgetting Marvin anytime soon. The vocals were fine, and he came through at the end after a tentative and unsure start.
Randy Jackson says “I really thoroughly enjoyed that.” Paula Abdul says “You are infectious.” Simon Cowell says “The reality is that if I heard that on the radio I would turn it off.” A tthis point in time, I'd like to agree with Simon and give the Kid a break so that he can go back to school and be honored by his fellow classmates for making it this far. This is as far as we should give the kid and we shouldn't have to put him to more embarrasments and harsh words from Simon, the uber-critic.
But then what could save Kevin ? Ryan Seacrest might have unwittingly done that with his comparing Kevin to Chicken Little that could come across as UNCALLED FOR to some viewers. He just MIGHT GET THE SYMPATHY VOTE !!! Let's give props to the kid, he's poised and takes it with a sense of humor.
The middle of the show brings the singers who really needed to separate themselves from the pack.
YOU'VE GOTTA TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE OPPORTUNITY TO STAND OUT. This statement describes Jose "Sway" Penala more than anyone else.
Look Jose, if you want your monicker ----''Sway'' to take you into the finals, you're going to have to get past Kevin Covais and Gedeon McKinney and make us, the listeners REALLY WANT TO SWAY !!
Jose "Sway" Penala sang "Overjoyed" by Stevie Wonder ( why this obssession with Stevie Wonder in this competition ?), which didn't impress the judges as being much more than karaoke. It was an unduly harsh criticism, at least when compared to the rest of the singers, but Penala didn't do much to make the song his own, and didn't come through with the effort he needed. Who was the one who last did justice to this song ? The only one whose version for me was memorable was the piano accompanied version of Season 2's top 12 comeptitor -- CHARLES GRISGBY.
Randy Jackson says “It wasn’t as good for me as last week.” Paula Abdul says “I feel like tonight you’re a little disconnected.” ( NOT A GOOD SIGN IF YOU CAN'T EVEN BRING PAULA TO SAY SOMETHING GOOD ). Simon Cowell says it “is exactly how not to do well on a show like this because that was nothing more than pure karaoke.”
Well, how to put it ? Sway could very well be on his way home unless his large fan base pulls him through. I've lived in the Phippines long enough to know that there are many outstanding entertainment talents waiting to be discovered. We haven't skimmed the surface yet..
Unfortunately, "Sway" did little to Sway me to vote for him, although I can imagine hundreds of thousands of Pinoys from Daly City and Hawaii dialing for him ( in other words, he gets the Jasmine Trias demographic ), which would be a shame really. This competition SHOULD BE about excellence, but it usually ends up less than what you expect it to be.
OK, Who is next ? AHH, the second coming of Donny Osmond --- Will Makar ( or is it Fred Savage of the Wonder Years ?)
Will Makar chooses "Lady" by Kenny Rogers, a song that, as Ryan Seacrest pointed out, was released before he was born. The performance itself was alright, and Makar did a decent job of putting a little of his own variations on the vocals. But what does this performance and song do for you other than force you to stand still and not do much ?
Do the judges like it ?
Randy Jackson says “It was just basically alright for me.” ( now we have Randy not using such strange DAWG POUNDwords as A'IGHT )
Paula Abdul says “too safe, a little bland.” ( HUMMM, Paula now starting to act like a real critic ? Who woulda thunk ?)
Simon Cowell says “It was like an audition for Cats,” and adds “Eleven year old girls will love that.”
In one of the funniest moments of the night, Ryan Seacrest starts undressing Will on stage, and Simon Cowell warns Will to “get off stage quick.”
OK, I'll go on a limb and try to play Devil's advocate on this one. Willy in my opinion did quite good on this one. He showed off some range and this performance does not cause him to deserve to be voted off this week.
Well well well, here comes my favorite lumber jack man -- Bucky Covington. Bucky Covington reminds me of the character played by Nichlas Cage in the movie -- RAISING ARIZONA. In his video, he reminds us of where he comes from with : "this L.A. food is strange and I miss my chicken and biscuits". Well, Kellie Picker doesn't like Calamari so you're entitled to your Dixie Southern fries boy. Bucky though, is savy enough to realize what got him here and won't change until he's forced to.
Covington gave the perfect song selection that matches his background and character ----> "Thunder Rolls" by Garth Brooks, allowing him to be both a country singer and a rock star. This was a clever choice. Bucky's persona does not really give him much room or leeway to portray himself as anything else other than a southern blue collar man.And the FOX PTB (That's Powers That Be to you folks from Rio Linda ) was VERRRY UNFAIR TO HIM BY NOT GIVING HIM SUFFICIENT PRE-FINAL AIRTIME. He doesn't seem to have the fan base of some of the other contestants, so needs to come up big every week.
Randy Jackson says “This was a great song choice for you.” Paula Abdul says “You hit every note right from the beginning.” Simon Cowell says “Bucky, I like you because I think you’re a very sincere guy,” but adds “I don’t see Bucky as the star attraction. I see him as the support for the stars.”
Let's put it this way ----- Bucky did have a solid night. HE DID WHAT HE COULD AND PLAYED TO HIS STRENGTHS.
Unfortunately, his downfall could be that contestants need the support of their home states to thrive in the competition, and Bucky has the misfortune of sharing a home state with Chris Daughtry who was THE STAR of the evening. Had Bucky been from say, North Dakota, Kansas or Kentucky, we might have a horse race. Bucky boy, I like you, but you and Chris split the North Carolina vote and Chris is ahead of you by a big gap. Life's not fair.
Next, comes John Stevens 2.0 ( boy don't they start them young nowadays ), 17 year old --- David Radford, who tried to make Freddie Mercury sound like Frank Sinatra last week.
David Radford shares the same problem as Bucky ---- he's stuck with the genre that got him here and his reputation is cast in stone. Unfortunately, the crooning tones of Frank Sinatra's "The Way You Look Tonight" don't lend themselves well to a competition like this one. If the show were called "American Wedding Singer," Radford would be the one to beat.
Look folks, we already had the painful John Stevens experience 2 seasons ago where his fans in NY kept him unbearably on and on and on forcing him to do songs that made him look like a fish out of the water ( remember the embarrasing CROCODILE ROCK in Elton John night ?). Mercifully, John's torture was put to an end at number 6. DECENT POSITION, which gave him a modest recording contract.
Folks, do you really want a repeat of the John Stevens experience again ? Had Radford shown us some range ( ALA Tony Bennet in I LEFT MY HEART IN SAN FRANCISCO ), I would've changed my mind. But seriously, end his misery now and let Dave go.
Radford wasn't helped by the fact that Daughtry was the singer who followed. It was a clear illustration of the candidates who tend to do well vs. the ones who walk the tightrope each week; Radford was likeable but forgettable, while Daughtry was the closest performance to Bo Bice's Incredible WHIPPING POST performance last year. At this stage of the game, sometimes bland is worse than bad, which is what a number of the men will be worrying about in the hours remaining before the results are announced ( you hear that David fans ? Let the kid go now and spare us the embarrasment ).
AND SO WE HAVE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EVENING .....
Chris Daughtry began the week as one of the favorites, HE WAS CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE COMPETITION AND NEVER GAVE A BAD OR DISAPPOINTING PERFORMANCE. Last week , he gave us Bon Jovi.
Chris Daughtry closes the show with a bang by giving us a rousing version of “Hemorrhage.” by FUEL. IT WAS FLAWLESS !!! It was an effort that was refreshingly raw and yet at the same time remarkably professional. Chris ended the night with a blaze of glory.
OK folks, after watching this peroformance, let me take a poll -----> Is there a single Idol viewer who'd have objected if the show's producers had eliminated David, Sway, Will, and Bucky in a single swoop and allowed Chris to rock out with a five-song mini-concert doing Bruce Springsteen, Bon Jovi, U2, The Eagles and Led Zeppelin ? How's about Grand Funks Railroad's We're An American Band ?? I want more.
Wanna know what the judges said ??? Randy Jackson says “I loved it, loved it, loved it, loved it.” Paula Abdul says “Do you know how good you are?” Simon Cowell says “This was the only performance, remember this guys, which stands up in the real world.” Simon also adds “Tonight you are the standard every one of these guys should be looking toward, because it was in a different class.” His step-children should be proud to call him dad. If he didn't make the top 12, it would be like Pee Wee Herman beating Bruce Lee in a street fight.
The only question now is this ---- can Chris keep it up ? After all, I have to keep reminding myself, it's only March 1, and with nearly three months of Idol in front of us, it's way too early to jump to conclusions. What is Chris going to do with them lame theme nights when he has to sing someone else's music ? can he do musicals ? ( Well why not ? TOMMY is a musical ). What's he going to sing in DISCO NIGHT ? Curious minds want to know....
At this point, the ONLY TWO Male performers who have been CONSISTENTLY GOOD are Chris Daughtry and Eliott Yamin.
Still, the Idol producers would've had to show video of Taylor and Ace running over their mothers with a trailer and leaving the scene to put them at risk of elimination on Thursday night.
So, I would have to say that the following 4 shuold be a lock to go to the final 12 -- CHRIS, ELIOTT, TAYLOR and ACE. As good as Gedeon sounded, though, he's still not quite in the same league as Elliott Yamin or Chris Daughtry, or for that matter, even Taylor Hicks ( if he ever returns to his true blue zone ). Yet, this stylish teenager conjured up the kind of soulfulness and vocal control that's a rarity on the Idol stage. I am inclined to give him the fifth spot. We'll have to see next week how he does.
Bucky has the unenviable position of having to split the vote with Chris and he ain't gonna win at this stage. Not at the rate Chris is burning.
So, we are left with the kiddie voters splitting with --- Kevin, Will and David.
I am inclined to choose Will over the other two simply because I think Will has the pipes and attitude to pull it off while Kevin is just too choir-boyish to make the cut. David Radford on the other hand is already an old trick we've seen in season 2 with John Stevens. We don't want to see the second coming of John again. And Radford hasn't really shown the range and ability to hit the power notes. If David somehow manages to score votes from tone-deaf Idol addicts or the masochistic set ( of which there are many), that could be trouble for Bucky Covington and Will Makar, neither of whom has displayed enough personality in interview footage to make up for their utterly mundane showings tonight.
Finally, I thought Jose ''Sway'' Penala's ''Overjoyed'' was the night's second weakest vocal ( after David Radford). However, I have an inexplicable feeling he's got enough of a fan base to get a free pass for it. Never underestimate the voters who dialed like maniacs to get Jasmine Trias through over the much more talented LaToya London ( who arguably is one of the best female singers of all the American Idol contestants ).
MY RANKINGS FOR TONIGHT ( BEST TO WORSE )
Chris
Eliott
Gedeon
Taylor
Ace
Will
Bucky
Kevin
Sway
David
WHO SHOULD GO : David and Sway
WHO WILL GO : David and Bucky
Just got this interesting bit of information from a blog site dedicated to Taylor Hicks regarding predicting which contestant is most likely to be voted out :
« Taylor Interview from WadePredicting the American Idol results via busy signals - flawed methodology? Or maybe not?
So there is an interesting website called Dial Idol ( dialidol.com) that allows users to download a speed dialing application for American Idol. Assuming the application works as advertised (not verified by me) that makers attempt to predict the final results based on the number of busy signals the dialing application receives per contestant.
Clearly the assumption is that if you receive busy signals for your favorite contestant - you can be sure that others are voting for them. While I was highly skeptical that this made any sense a little investigation yields some interesting results.
What are the predictions for this week?
Higher numbers indicate the busiest lines, Taylor leads by a landslide in popularity - but can this be right?
Performer % Busy
Taylor 37
Ace 24
Chris 19
Will 17
Gedeon 14
Kevin 9
Sway 8
Elliott 7
Bucky 7
David 5
On their own website the operators say . . .
How accurate are the predictions?
That depends on the number of people running DialIdol. With minimal data during the last 6 votes of season 4 DialIdol was about 65% accurate including predicting who would win. With extensive data … well we’ll see!
If you read the following analysis you’ll see that the above statement is, well, mostly incorrect.
While we here at Gray Charles are pleased with the predicted results we were heavily skeptical that it was reliable so we contacted our friendly neighborhood statistician. Here is what he (my brother) had to say (take a deep breath).
First, a few definitions: The ‘population’ is the total number of all calls made, regular and computer dialed. In this case the population is 40 million calls. The ’sample’ is the cases selected for computer-aided dialing. In this case x (the percentage of all calls using dialing software) times the population yields the number of cases in the sample–let’s call it ‘y’, the total number of computer-dialed calls.
It sounds crazy, but the percentage, ‘x’ of the total is not critical in and of itself. It’s just the total number of cases ‘y’ in the sample that’s important. Thus if the population is really big–i.e. 40 million calls–’x’
can be really small and you can still end up with reliable results. Thus, it’s better (statistically) to sample 1% of 40 million calls than 50% of 400,000 calls. So, although ‘x’ is important in establishing the total number of calls ‘y’, I can’t give you a ‘critical’ figure of ‘x’.
Also–and this sounds crazy, too–the relative proportion yielding a positive result is important too. You’ll have more confidence in the estimate (narrower confidence limits) for an individual with a busy signal rate of about 50% than an individual with a busy signal rate of 10%. So even if they have the same number of attempted calls, each contestant’s confidence limits will be different. You’ll have to work it out for each contestant based on their busy signal rate and the number of calls placed for them.
Here’s some examples:
Candidate A: 20% busy signal, 500 calls. Confidence limits are 20% plus or minus 3.4%. Put another way, we can be 95% confident that the ‘true’ busy signal rate for Candidate A is between 16.6 and 23.3%.
Candidate B: 15% busy signal, 500 calls. Confidence limits are 15% plus or minus 3.1%. Put another way, we can be 95% confident that the ‘true’ busy signal rate for Candidate B is between 11.9 and 18.1%.
Candidate C: 5% busy signal, 500 calls. Confidence limits are 5% plus or minus 1.9%. Put another way, we can be 95% confident that the ‘true’ busy signal rate for Candidate C is between 3.1 and 6.9%.
Candidate D: 20% busy signal, 5000 calls. Confidence limits are 20% plus or minus 1.1%. Put another way, we can be 95% confident that the ‘true’ busy signal rate for Candidate A is between 18.9 and 21.1%.
Note that although candidate A and D have the same busy signal rates, the confidence limits are much narrower for candidate D. You can be reasonably sure that candidate D will receive more votes that candidate B, but not so sure that candidate A will.
Lots of assumptions here to be fair - we’ll be reporting more on the American Idol phone system structure in the upcoming days.
Bottom Line - Dial Idol maybe onto something here - at least in the early stages in predicting who stays and who goes. You have to look at margin of error to see how accurate the predictions are but for now, I think the David, Bucky, Sway and Elliott (wft? Elliott) might want to watch out.
Questions, comments, concerns? Simply freaking out?
Let me know.
http://www.realitytvmagazine.com/blog/2006/01/jose_sway_penal.html 