"Wait until it goes overseas and they love it to death in Europe."
It's already opened overseas, and recouped its costs. Whatever else happens, the movie will not lose money. Factor in future DVD sales, and it will make a profit.
I agree with you. I said that in all my posts.
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No it has not. And, the foreign sales numbers will not be effected by whatever it does at BO overseas. Sales deals are made by territory for a fixed amount. Any film is considered exceptionally fortunate to get even 50% out of foreign. A controversial film can expect even less.
As for rentals, this is never a significant piece of revenue for the studios primarily because their piece is limited.
Most films do not come close to breaking even. This will fare worse than most. The numbers are already in steep decline and unless the hard-core audience who packed the theaters (all puns intended) last week-end turn this into a crusade and spend their lives in the theater this will disappear long before the mid-January target date for 300 plus theaters.
As for DVD sales I think it will flop because some retailers such as Wal-Mart won't carry a controversial homosexual cowboy movie.