By 2007, IDC estimates that Linux will have 6% of the desktop market in terms of units, Kusnetzky said.And the other linked article refutes Kusnetzky's assertions ("Linux captured the No. 2 spot as desktop operating system in 2003. . .") pretty convincingly. with statements such as:
"I think those numbers are dubious," said Tim Deal, a financial analyst with Technology Business Research.Peter Kastner, an analyst with Aberdeen Group, said the Mac has roughly 3 percent of the desktop market, and the Linux share is considerably lower than that.
Kastner's 3 percent estimate is backed up by numbers published by Google, which logs the different desktop systems used to access its site. According to Google, Mac users number 3 percent, while Linux weighs in at 1 percent.
Even Leigh Day, spokeswoman for Red Hat, one of the largest Linux distributors, said Linux isn't yet ready for the desktop.
"The stuff for a consumer desktop -- media players, video drivers -- are not yet mature," she said.
Market research firm Gartner may have the answer. According to Gartner, forecasts need to distinguish between the OS the machine ships with, and the OS that is installed right after it's unboxed.
"In emerging markets like China, Russia and Latin America, many locally assembled PCs are sold without an OS or with Linux," wrote Gartner analyst Annette Jump in a report published last week. "On 90 percent to 95 percent of these PCs, a pirated version of Microsoft Windows is installed within the first few days."
Why is reading so hard?
I specifically said I found gartner's numbers much more credible. For a reason which *YOU* yourself have quoted.
^^^^^^^^^According to Gartner, forecasts need to distinguish between the OS the machine ships with, and the OS that is installed right after it's unboxed.^^^^^^^^^^
And Garner is taking into account for that fact. That's why they said it'd have to be 2005.
Have you looked at your calendar lately?
To add into the above statement
#########After taking account for piracy, Gartner said 2004 worldwide market share for Mac OS is 2.5 percent, versus 1.3 percent for Linux. However, this will change next year. Gartner predicts in 2005, the Mac will slip to 2 percent market share, and Linux will grow to 2.1 percent.##########
Taking into account to piracy?
Translated, that means : After taking into account for the 95% that go to windows installs linux will have more marketshare than the mac does.
I really don't see what's so hard about all of this. Linux will run on anything. Mac OS, only on macs. Apple themselves are their biggest enemy when it comes to the amount of users who use their software worldwide.
The sheer numbers work for linux, and against apple.
And besides, google's numbers are over a year old. If you read the article, Gartner's numbers are about the same as google's. Google hasn't released any numbers since then.