I think I'll bring this discussion back to ATRW, if you'll agree, CT, rather than the other thread we were on ( http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1513922/posts?page=83#83 )... especially since some really level headed folks abide here...
I believe that this "Rule 21" could be changed by a simple majority vote right now. Is that true? Is this one of those items that, like the constitutional/nuke/byrd option is actually susceptible to change this session because Frist didn't accept the rules at the start of the session?
I think so. If so, Frist's (and I honestly believe he was in pow-wow with Rove and the WH last Dec. about this type of problem so I'll include them, too) foresight could be of inestimable value. However, in order for the moderates to get fed up enough about this "stunt", the Dems will have to work this sufficient numbers of times for a strategy to nuke it is prepared.
I doubt that once was enough - despite Frist's anger yesterday.
2. When the Senate meets in closed session, any applicable provisions of rules XXIX and XXXI, including the confidentiality of information shall apply to any information and to the conduct of any debate transacted.
XXXXXXXXXXX
Rule (chapter)5
Suspension and Amendment of the Rules
1. No motion to suspend, modify, or amend any rule, or any part thereof, shall be in order, except on one day's notice in writing, specifying precisely the rule or part proposed to be suspended, modified, or amended, and the purpose thereof. Any rule may be suspended without notice by the unanimous consent of the Senate, except as otherwise provided by the rules.
2. The rules of the Senate shall continue from one Congress to the next Congress unless they are changed as provided in these rules.
XXXXXXXXXX
Please note, that altho others have maintained Rule 21 is ironclad, I have not and do not subscribe to that theory. Rule 5 provides a way to circumvent Rule 21 if the will is there to do so.
Frist simply needs to submit written notification he intends to amend Rule 21 when it is called up on the following day. He would need to send a new notice every day, or have them sent enmass with the date he intends to amend noted on the written notice. (The intended dates of invoking Rule 21 would be every single day from now until well beyond the end of Session) Because Rule 5 calls for precise information, they would need to take care to meet that portion.
Will he do it? Probably not. Why? Because he never knows when one of his wayward Pubbies is going to wander off the Reservation.
The point is this. Altho some refuse to admit it, there are ways to circumvent Rule 21. There would be a major blood letting to do it, but the means are there to get the job done, if the will is there to do it.
And as I read these rules, they can be amended at any time with 24 hrs notice. The debate would probably last several weeks, with filabuster after filabuster, but it could be done. The Majority controls the agenda. The minority controls the time.
They could just change the unlimited debate rule for court nominations. I listed the types of motions that are not subject to unlimited debate and they could change the rules to include confirmations of judicial nominees or just supreme court nominees on that list requiring only a majority vote.
The problem was last spring Frist could not get 50 votes for a rule change. The Gang of Fourteen made a deal. They agreed not to vote for a change of rules and not to vote for a filibuster except in the case of extremist nominees. Frist had no more than 49 votes out of the 50 needed. After the gang of 14 deal he had no more than 48. He still has no more than 48.
It is my belief that Frist does not have more than 45 certain votes for a rules change. Some of them opposing the rules change may vote for it for cover, but they will only do so if there are less than 50 votes for it. I don't put a lot of stock in the chances for a rule change.
Lott is still angry over Bush and Rove removing him from the Majority leaders job after the 2002 election. That ruined Lotts career and it is payback time. It is my belief that Lott has Voinovich, DeWine, Collins, Snowe Chaffee, Warner, Graham, and McCain set up to find a way to prevent the rules change. They may have Hagel and Brownback on board as well. It will only take six of them to prevent the rules change.
What I am speculating is the Lott was looking for a way to produce nothing but failure for Frist, Rove, and Bush while providing cover for the RINOs he is using to kill it.
If the rules changes and cloture votes take place under secrecy.. that is while rule Rule 21 is in effect, then Bush's nominees are dead ducks. There are enough pro abortion, pro Lott and liberal Repubican senators to kill the rules change.
Miss Marple said today that Lott was on FOX calling on Rove to resign. That figures. Lott is not weak. He has followers and supporters and his goal is to make Bush pay.
The problem, I think, is president Bush was angry that Lott did not prevent Jeffords from jumping ship in early 2001 and giving the senate to the Democrats from 2001 to 2003. Lott told Bush he could lean on Jeffords. That if Jeffords got really ticked he would talk to his friend Trent Lott. Jeffords talked to his friend Tom Daschle giving the Senate to the Democrats for 2001 and 2002. Bush got Lott replaced as Majority leader in late 2002. Lott called for a vote immediately after the 2002 election and was reelected as Majority leader for 2003 and 2004.. Then Lott praised Strom Thurman and Bush orchestrated his removal as Majority leader for racism. You may recall that even Tom Daschle did not attack Lott for praising Strom Thurman. It was Ann Coulter, Krauthammer, and Peggy Noonan et all who were calling for Lott's scalp over Lott's Thurman speech. That in my opinion was a dumb move.
I predicted at the time Lott was removed that Trent would do all he could to destroy the Bush presidency in return. I thought using the media to take down Lott was a very dumb move. It seems to me the chickens have come home to roost.
You may recall that when the gang of 14 met it was leaked that Trent Lott was called in to address them. He supposedly used a back stairs to get to the formation meeting of the gang of 14. It was held I believe in McCain's office. It was Graham who leaked that Lott addressed the gang of 14 on strategy and it was Lott who confirmed he had. That was pure message sending that Lott was the brain behind the gang of 14.
It was also Lott who came up with the name Nuclear option for a rules change. He did that some time ago. The name stuck. It is not a nice name for a simple rule change. Consider why Lott would use that name and why the media adopted it.
The gang of 14 was a way to prevent Frist from getting 50 votes to change the rules.
In last spring's encounter you may recall that Frist on several occasions acted like he had the 50 votes to change the rules. Then Frist would hedge and not call for a vote. Finally after several weeks of expected rules changes that never happened the Gang of 14 took over with their compromise. That compromise calle for killing the change of rules option.
It seemed apparent to me that neither Frist, Rove or Bush had notice about the Gang of 14. That tells me there are two factions of the Republican party in the senate. One reporting to Lott the other to Frist. The problem is Frist does not have enough support to win.
The point I am making is Frist does not have 50 votes to change the rules. I think he has at best 45 or 46. What the 9 or 10 Republicans on Lott's anti Bush team need is cover. My fear is that Rule 21 may be used for that purpose.
We all know that Frist wanted to run for president in 2008. Had he pulled off a rules change last April and had unlimited debate been ended for judicial nominations, Frist would have a huge leg up on the 2008 nomination, He totally failed and the Lott, McCain, Graham et all group handed Frist and Bush a major defeat.
I don't think they are through handing Frist defeats. What they are hoping for is a way to get cover.
That in any event is my take of the current situation.